Publication:
Constructing Comparable Global Poverty Trends

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (3.86 MB)
138 downloads
English Text (41.62 KB)
29 downloads
Published
2025-06-23
ISSN
Date
2025-06-23
Author(s)
Foster, Elizabeth
Prinsloo, Zander
Tchouakam Mbouendeu, Rostand
Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K.
Editor(s)
Abstract
Countries frequently revise how they measure income or consumption due to changes in data collection and questionnaire design. These changes create comparability breaks in poverty trends over time. This paper develops three methods to create global, regional, and country-level poverty trends that are comparable within countries over time. It does so by using national accounts growth to bridge non-comparable sequences. Accounting for comparability breaks creates large differences in some country-level poverty trends, but the global extreme poverty trend built from these comparable poverty series remains largely unchanged.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Foster, Elizabeth; Lakner, Christoph; Prinsloo, Zander; Tchouakam Mbouendeu, Rostand; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K.. 2025. Constructing Comparable Global Poverty Trends. Global Poverty Monitoring Technical Note; No. 45. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43363 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    September 2023 Update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP)
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-10-11) Aron, Danielle Victoria; Castaneda Aguilar, R. Andres; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina; Farfan Betran, Maria Gabriela; Foster, Elizabeth Mary; Fujs, Tony H. M. J.; Jolliffe, Dean; Krishnan, Nandini; Lakner, Christoph; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Mahler, Daniel G.; Moreno Herrera, Laura; Nguyen, Minh C.; Sanchez Castro, Diana M.; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K.; Viveros Mendoza, Martha C.; Wu, Haoyu; Yonzan, Nishant
    The September 2023 update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP) involves several changes to the data underlying the global poverty estimates. In particular, some welfare aggregates have been revised, and the CPI, national accounts, and population input data have been updated. This document explains these changes in detail and the reasoning behind them. Moreover, 63 new country-years have been added, bringing the total number of surveys to more than 2,200. Global poverty estimates are reported up to 2019 and earlier years have been revised. Regional poverty estimates in 2020 and 2021 are reported only for regions with sufficient survey data coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Publication
    How Improved Household Surveys Influence National and International Poverty Rates
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Foster, Elizabeth; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel
    To effectively address poverty, it is essential that countries have the tools and means to accurately measure people’s living standards. Most countries rely on data collected from household surveys to measure monetary poverty, defining households as poor when their consumption is below the national poverty line. When countries improve the quality and scope of their household surveys, as some have done in recent years, they often capture consumption that is overlooked in previous surveys, thus leading to higher measured consumption. With better data, countries redefine their national poverty line, which on average balances out the higher consumption, leading to minimal change in national poverty rates. However, the international poverty line is fixed at any given point in time. Thus, when measured consumption increases, international poverty rates fall, sometimes dramatically. For this reason, international poverty rate comparisons over time should be done with caution when countries implement improved household surveys.
  • Publication
    March 2024 Update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP)
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-01) Castaneda Aguilar, R. Andres; Castillo, Adriana; Devpura, Nancy P.; Dewina, Reno; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina; Edochie, Ifeanyi; Farfan Bertran, Maria G.; Fernandez Romero, Jaime; Foster, Elizabeth; Fujs, Tony H. M. J.; Gonzalez Icaza, Maria F.; Jolliffe, Dean; Knippenberg, Erwin W.; Krishnan, Nandini; Lakner, Christopher; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Lestani, Diego G.; Mahler, Daniel G.; Montalvo Talledo, Veronica S.; Montes, Jose; Nguyen, Minh C.; Olivieri, Sergio; Paffhausen, Anna Luisa; Redaelli, Silvia; Saavedra, Trinidad B.; Sanchez Castro, Diana M.; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K.; Viveros Mendoza, Martha C.; Wu, Haoyu; Yonzan, Nishant; Yoshida, Nobuo
    The March 2024 update to the Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP) involves several changes to the data underlying the global poverty estimates. In particular, some welfare aggregates have been revised, and the CPI, national accounts, and population input data have been updated. This document explains these changes in detail and the reasoning behind them. Moreover, 101 new country-years have been added, bringing the total number of surveys to more than 2,300. Depending on the availability of recent survey data, global and regional poverty estimates are reported up to 2022. This is the first time PIP is reporting global poverty estimates post-2019, covering the period of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Publication
    Poverty and Prices
    (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2025-08-05) Jolliffe, Dean; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Lakner, Christoph; Atamanov, Aziz; Kofi Tetteh-Baah, Samuel
    Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are used to estimate the international poverty line (IPL) in a common currency and account for relative price differences across countries when measuring global poverty. This paper assesses the impact of the 2017 PPPs on the nominal value of the IPL and global poverty. Updating the 1.90 dollars IPL in 2011 PPP dollars to 2017 PPP dollars results in an IPL of 2.15 dollars, a finding that is robust to various methods. Based on an updated IPL of 2.15 dollars, the global extreme poverty rate in 2017 falls from the previously estimated 9.3 to 9.1 percent, reducing the count of people who are poor by 15 million. This is a modest change compared with previous updates of PPP data. The paper also assesses the methodological stability between the 2011 and 2017 PPPs, scrutinizes large changes at the country level, and updates alternative, complementary poverty lines with the 2017 PPPs.
  • Publication
    Assessing the Impact of the 2017 PPPs on the International Poverty Line and Global Poverty
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-21) Tetteh Baah, Samuel Kofi; Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Lakner, Christoph; Atamanov, Aziz
    Purchasing power parity exchange rates (PPPs) are used to estimate the international poverty line (IPL) in a common currency and account for relative price differences across countries when measuring global poverty. This paper assesses the impact of the 2017 PPPs on the nominal value of the IPL and global poverty. The analysis indicates that updating the $1.90 IPL in 2011 PPP dollars to 2017 PPP dollars results in an IPL of approximately $2.15—a finding that is robust to various methods and assumptions. Based on an updated IPL of $2.15, the global extreme poverty rate in 2017 falls from the previously estimated 9.3 to 9.1 percent, reducing the count of people who are poor by 15 million. This is a modest change compared with previous updates of PPP data. The paper also assesses the methodological stability between the 2011 and 2017 PPPs, scrutinizes large changes at the country level, and analyzes higher poverty lines with the 2017 PPPs.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03) World Bank Group
    This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.
  • Publication
    Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-22) World Bank Group
    Mongolia’s development prospects are uniquely challenged by both the impacts of climate change and the global shift toward a low-carbon economy. The country’s efforts toward decarbonization pose significant challenges given the structurally high-emission intensity of its economy. While challenging, climate action also presents Mongolia with opportunities to achieve important development benefits. The effects of climate risks and the shift away from coal will have diverse impacts across different regions, communities, and socioeconomic levels. The report assesses the critical interconnections between Mongolia’s development ambitions and climate change action and identifies ways to transition to a more economically diversified, inclusive, and resilient development path. It highlights key climate and transition risks affecting Mongolia’s future development and presents a pathway to enhance climate mitigation and adaptation. The report also makes a case for strengthening policies to enhance resilience to climate change and ensure a just transition, particularly for the most vulnerable. The report is structured as follows: section 1 gives introduction. Section 2 delves into the linkages between development and climate in Mongolia and presents model-based findings on the economic and poverty impacts of climate change under different scenarios. Section 3 covers four in-depth sectoral analyses. The first two mainly focus on adaptation to climate change in the agriculture and water sectors. The third considers prospects for the extraction sector, while the fourth sectoral analysis focuses on decarbonizing power and heat generation. Section 4 shifts the focus to how the government can boost resilience for climate-vulnerable populations. Section 5 outlines options for mobilizing private and public financing and private investments to support the green transition. Section 6 examines the existing institutional and governance structure for climate action and presents recommendations to improve its effectiveness, and section 7 concludes with a framework for prioritizing the policy actions outlined in this report.
  • Publication
    Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05) World Bank
    The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.
  • Publication
    Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23) World Bank Group
    Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.
  • Publication
    Senegal Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-05) World Bank Group
    Climate action offers an opportunity to safeguard development gains and accompany the ambitious transformation Senegal is embarking on to achieve its objective of reaching middle income status in the next decade. While the country was among the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), poverty reduction was slow, vulnerabilities persisted, and inequalities increased. In addition, overall productivity remained low, with lagging structural transformation, high informality, and low job creation. To attain its middle-income goal, Senegal must initiate a series of reforms for a productive, sustainable, and inclusive growth model, with climate considerations at the center given the country’s high vulnerability. Senegal’s high climate vulnerability is caused by the country’s coastal exposure and reliance on natural resources for food, jobs, and growth (partly a consequence of its slow structural transformation). With temperatures soaring, precipitation expected to decrease, and erosion threatening 75 percent of the coastline at term, Senegal’s population and assets are under high risk. The poorest are particularly vulnerable, with 55 percent of total households teetering on the edge of poverty because of recurrent shocks. Without action, annual economic losses could reach 3-4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as soon as 2030 and further increase to 9.4 percent by 2050, wiping years of per capita income growth and eroding any potential human capital accumulation. Overall, climate change could push two more million Senegalese in poverty by mid-century. Building resilience and leveraging the low-carbon economy will help Senegal realizing its growth ambitions, contributing to a more productive, sustainable, and inclusive development pathway. The macro-economic analysis for this CCDR finds that adaptation measures in selected sectors could bring GDP gains of about 2 percent by 2030, and between 0.5 and 1 percent afterwards (for climate financing needs of about 0.9 percent of GDP in the period to 2030 and 0.1 percent afterwards). Adaptation could also reduce poverty headcount, with 40 percent less people pushed into poverty by climate change compared to no adaptation action. In addition, emission reductions could reach 20MtCO2e per year over the period to 2050, from interventions in forestry, improved cooking services, urban transport, waste management, and energy production. The energy transition provides an opportunity to meet both development and climate objectives, exceeding NDC targets and putting the country well on track for net zero by 2050, but significant downside risks remain, linked to delays in the deployment and financing availability for renewable generation and domestic gas. Senegal’s formidable renewable energy potential (chiefly around solar) offers the lowest cost generation option to meet rising energy demand while accelerating decarbonization. At term, the country could play a leading role in decarbonizing the region though export opportunities and bolster resilience across the regional grid. In the short term, given constraints to the fast deployment of renewables, the transitional use of domestic gas will help phase out expensive and high-emitting coal and Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) generation, while balancing the electricity system and lowering the cost of electricity. Climate action will require a financing of US$8.2 billion over 2025-30 (in present value, at 6 percent per year), or 4.5 percent of discounted cumulative GDP over the same period, and US$10.6 billion over 2031-50 (in present value terms), or 2.0 percent of discounted cumulative GDP over the same period. Water security, sustainable (urban) transport, and the energy transition account for the largest share. Importantly, climate action is expected to bring significant benefits over time, beyond climate adaptation and mitigation – including health or jobs, (as in the primary sector, with 155,000 jobs created, of which 80 percent in agriculture). Many benefits could not be properly estimated, implying that the returns from climate action might well be underestimated.