Publication:
The Long-Run Economic Costs of AIDS : A Model with an Application to South Africa

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creativeworkseries.issn1564-698X
dc.contributor.authorBell, Clive
dc.contributor.authorDevarajan, Shantayanan
dc.contributor.authorGersbach, Hans
dc.date.accessioned2014-01-02T22:42:07Z
dc.date.available2014-01-02T22:42:07Z
dc.date.issued2006-04-11
dc.description.abstractPrimarily a disease of young adults, Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) imposes economic costs that could be devastatingly high in the long run by undermining the transmission of human capital the main driver of long-run economic growth across generations. AIDS makes it harder for victims' children to obtain an education and deprives them of the love, nurturing, and life skills that parents provide. These children will in turn find it difficult to educate their children, and so on. An overlapping generations model is used to show that an otherwise growing economy could decline to a low level subsistence equilibrium if hit with an AIDS type increase in premature adult mortality. Calibrating the model for South Africa, where the HIV prevalence rate is over 20 percent, simulations reveal that the economy could shrink to half its current size in about four generations in the absence of intervention. Programs to combat the disease and to support needy families could avert such a collapse, but they imply a fiscal burden of about 4 percent of Gross domestic product (GDP).en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/01/17753771/long-run-economic-costs-aids-model-application-south-africa
dc.identifier.citationWorld Bank Economic Review
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/16464
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1093/wber/lhj006
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/16464
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherPublished by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorld Bank Economic Review
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
dc.subjectACCOUNT
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECT
dc.subjectAIDS EPIDEMIC
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectBENCHMARKS
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCARE OF ORPHANS
dc.subjectCHANGES IN FERTILITY
dc.subjectCHILD LABOR
dc.subjectCHILD REARING
dc.subjectCHILDREN PER COUPLE
dc.subjectDEPENDENCY RATIO
dc.subjectDESCENT
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDIMINISHING RETURNS
dc.subjectDISABILITY
dc.subjectDISEASES
dc.subjectDISPOSABLE INCOME
dc.subjectEARLY DEATH
dc.subjectEARNINGS
dc.subjectECONOMETRICS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectECONOMIC SYSTEM
dc.subjectEDUCATION OF CHILDREN
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
dc.subjectEPIDEMIC
dc.subjectEXCESS MORTALITY
dc.subjectEXPECTED VALUE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFAMILY INCOME
dc.subjectFAMILY STRUCTURE
dc.subjectFERTILITY
dc.subjectFEWER CHILDREN
dc.subjectFINANCES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFORMAL EDUCATION
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGENERIC DRUGS
dc.subjectGLOBAL AIDS EPIDEMIC
dc.subjectGLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectHEALTH POLICY
dc.subjectHEALTH SERVICES
dc.subjectHIV
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD LEVEL
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectHUSBAND
dc.subjectIMPACT OF AIDS
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINVESTMENT IN EDUCATION
dc.subjectINVESTMENTS IN EDUCATION
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR SUPPLY
dc.subjectLEVEL OF EDUCATION
dc.subjectLEVEL OF FERTILITY
dc.subjectLEVEL OF MORTALITY
dc.subjectLEVELS OF MORTALITY
dc.subjectLIFE EXPECTANCY
dc.subjectLIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
dc.subjectLIFE SKILLS
dc.subjectLOWER FERTILITY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectMARGINAL COST
dc.subjectMEDICAL CARE
dc.subjectMORTALITY RISK
dc.subjectMOTHER
dc.subjectMOTHER-TO-CHILD
dc.subjectMOTHER-TO-CHILD TRANSMISSION
dc.subjectNUCLEAR FAMILIES
dc.subjectNUCLEAR FAMILY
dc.subjectNUMBER OF CHILDREN
dc.subjectNUTRITION
dc.subjectOLD AGE
dc.subjectOPPORTUNITY COSTS
dc.subjectOPTIMIZATION
dc.subjectORPHAN
dc.subjectORPHANAGES
dc.subjectORPHANS
dc.subjectOVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL
dc.subjectPARENTAL CARE
dc.subjectPARENTAL DEATH
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPHYSICAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subjectPREMATURE ADULT MORTALITY
dc.subjectPREMATURE DEATH
dc.subjectPREVENTIVE MEASURES
dc.subjectPROSTITUTES
dc.subjectPUBLIC FUNDS
dc.subjectPUBLIC GOOD
dc.subjectPUBLIC POLICY
dc.subjectPUBLIC SUPPORT
dc.subjectRATE OF GROWTH
dc.subjectREGRESSION ANALYSIS
dc.subjectRESPECT
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSCHOOL ATTENDANCE
dc.subjectSEXUAL BEHAVIOR
dc.subjectSEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES
dc.subjectSINGLE PARENTS
dc.subjectSINGLE-PARENT FAMILIES
dc.subjectSINGLE-PARENT HOUSEHOLD
dc.subjectSINGLE-PARENT HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectSOCIAL CUSTOMS
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECTORS
dc.subjectTAX BURDEN
dc.subjectTAX REVENUES
dc.subjectTOTAL REVENUE
dc.subjectUNION
dc.subjectUNIVERSAL EDUCATION
dc.subjectUSE OF CONDOMS
dc.subjectVICIOUS CYCLE
dc.subjectVICTIMS
dc.subjectWIFE
dc.subjectWILL
dc.subjectYOUNG ADULTS
dc.subjectYOUNG CHILD
dc.titleThe Long-Run Economic Costs of AIDS : A Model with an Application to South Africaen
dc.typeJournal Articleen
dc.typeArticle de journalfr
dc.typeArtículo de revistaes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaGender
okr.date.disclosure2013-05-24
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-06T11:15:07.508729Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Journal Article
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Journal Article
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/01/17753771/long-run-economic-costs-aids-model-application-south-africa
okr.globalpracticeSocial, Urban, Rural and Resilience
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.globalpracticeGovernance
okr.globalpracticeHealth, Nutrition, and Population
okr.guid564581468101353794
okr.identifier.doi10.1093/wber/lhj006
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000445729_20130524152615
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum17753771
okr.identifier.report77514
okr.journal.nbpages55-89
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/05/24/000445729_20130524152615/Rendered/PDF/775140JRN020060onomic0Costs0of0AIDS.pdfen
okr.peerreviewAcademic Peer Review
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.countrySouth Africa
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Population Policies
okr.topicUrban Development::Street Children
okr.topicGender::Gender and Law
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Access to Finance
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.unitOff of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
okr.volume20(1)
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