Publication:
The Macroeconomy After Tariffs

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creativeworkseries.issn1564-698X
dc.contributor.authorFurceri, Davide
dc.contributor.authorHannan, Swarnali A.
dc.contributor.authorOstry, Jonathan D.
dc.contributor.authorRose, Andrew K.
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-17T18:34:46Z
dc.date.available2024-01-17T18:34:46Z
dc.date.issued2021-08-23
dc.description.abstractWhat does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes This study estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries from 1963 to 2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity, as well as higher unemployment and inequality, real exchange rate appreciation, and insignificant changes to the trade balance. Output and productivity impacts are magnified when tariffs rise during expansions and when they are imposed by more advanced or smaller (as opposed to developing or larger) economies; effects are asymmetric, being larger when tariffs go up than when they fall. While firmly establishing causality is always a challenge, the results are robust to a large number of perturbations to the baseline methodology, and they hold using both macroeconomic and industry-level data.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099956212082331009/IDU-884bdf69-cb4e-4f5a-a0b3-e8d2b1a7ad86
dc.identifier.citationThe World Bank Economic Review
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/40906
dc.identifier.issn0258-6770 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1564-698X (online)
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40906
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherPublished by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorld Bank Economic Review
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectTARIFFS
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.titleThe Macroeconomy After Tariffsen
dc.typeJournal Article
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://academic.oup.com/wber/article/36/2/361/6356597 Journal website (version of record)
okr.crossref.titleThe Macroeconomy After Tariffs
okr.date.disclosure2024-01-17
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-23T02:23:11.518639Z
okr.date.lastmodified2023-12-11T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypeJournal Article
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099956212082331009/IDU-884bdf69-cb4e-4f5a-a0b3-e8d2b1a7ad86
okr.guid099956212082331009
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-884bdf69-cb4e-4f5a-a0b3-e8d2b1a7ad86
okr.identifier.doidoi.org/10.1093/wber/lhab016
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/40906
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34211012
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34211012
okr.identifier.report186299
okr.import.id2907
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pagenumber361-381
okr.peerreviewAcademic Peer Review
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Macroeconomic Management
okr.unitOff of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
okr.volume36 (2)
relation.isJournalIssueOfPublicationb26f5893-9754-4052-9099-8a165ad8e09c
relation.isJournalIssueOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb26f5893-9754-4052-9099-8a165ad8e09c
relation.isJournalOfPublicationc41eae2f-cf94-449d-86b7-f062aebe893f
relation.isJournalVolumeOfPublicationdd213de9-52ab-40e9-bb44-86bf0edc81b4
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