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Turkey: An Empirical Assessment of the Determinants of the Current Account Balance

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dc.contributor.authorKnight, David
dc.contributor.authorNedeljkovic, Milan
dc.contributor.authorPortugal-Perez, Alberto
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-16T16:45:02Z
dc.date.available2019-08-16T16:45:02Z
dc.date.issued2019-08
dc.description.abstractTurkey has moved rapidly from a current account that was relatively in balance up to the turn of the millennia, to sustaining relatively large current account deficits over the past 15 years. Using annual data from 1986 to 2017 and a jackknife model-averaging estimator, the paper estimates the relationship between the current account balance and a set of determinants that are broadly consistent with the cross-country literature. These determinants include private sector credit, public expenditure, real exchange rate changes, gross domestic product growth relative to the rest of the world, trade openness, international oil prices, foreign direct investment levels, past net foreign assets, inflation volatility, and global levels of uncertainty. The analysis then decomposes the predicted current account balance for five-year periods to illustrate the factors that have driven the current account over time. Over 2003-07, a large current account deficit became established in Turkey, driven by an expansion of credit to households and rapid gross domestic product growth, coupled with improved macroeconomic stability that supported higher spending and therefore imports. Since then, the negative effect of household credit has abated, but was replaced in 2008-17 by an expansion of credit to the corporate sector as a driver of the current account deficit. The current account balance in Turkey is also found to be less persistent than is typically found in the cross-country literature, implying that it adjusts more rapidly in response to shocks.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/885361565870957375/Turkey-An-Empirical-Assessment-of-the-Determinants-of-the-Current-Account-Balance
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8982
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/32275
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 8982
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SECTOR
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectJACKKNIFE MODEL
dc.titleTurkeyen
dc.title.subtitleAn Empirical Assessment of the Determinants of the Current Account Balanceen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleTurkey: An Empirical Assessment of the Determinants of the Current Account Balance
okr.date.disclosure2019-08-15
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/885361565870957375/Turkey-An-Empirical-Assessment-of-the-Determinants-of-the-Current-Account-Balance
okr.guid885361565870957375
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8982
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b086fdd47b_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum31337931
okr.identifier.reportWPS8982
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/885361565870957375/pdf/Turkey-An-Empirical-Assessment-of-the-Determinants-of-the-Current-Account-Balance.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryTurkiye
okr.statistics.combined2683
okr.statistics.dr885361565870957375
okr.statistics.drstats2005
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Capital Flows
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Export Competitiveness
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Macroeconomic Management
okr.unitMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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