Publication:
Unleashing Central America’s Growth Potential: El Salvador

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (7.1 MB)
690 downloads
English Text (316.41 KB)
90 downloads
Published
2021-07-16
ISSN
Date
2021-07-20
Editor(s)
Abstract
Although El Salvador’s modest pace of growth has reduced poverty and inequality in recent years, it has not been sufficient to move the country toward the income levels of wealthier economies. The objective of this study is to investigate the drivers and constraints of growth and productivity in El Salvador from 1990 to 2017 and explore areas with high growth potential. The value added of this study is to provide an in-depth analysis of the drivers and constraints of El Salvador’s growth using a wide range of analytical tools. Historically, El Salvador’s growth is driven by factor accumulation, both labor and capital, and not overall productivity. The binding constraints for growth are identified as: (i) security, (ii) innovation, (iii) human capital, (iv) property rights, (v) limited access to finance for small firms, and (vi) corruption. Higher productivity and output growth can be achieved through quality upgrading and an export diversification strategy focused on metal, plastic, and chemical products. The country’s strategic location with access to many markets, a growing labor force, and a solid industrial base can support the expansion of the tradable sector to achieve higher and more inclusive growth. Development goals can be achieved with a long-term commitment to structural reform and investment.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Ulku, Hulya; Zaourak, Gabriel. 2021. Unleashing Central America’s Growth Potential: El Salvador. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35976 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Unleashing Central America’s Growth Potential
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-30) Ulku, Hulya; Zaourak, Gabriel
    As the smallest economy in Central America, Nicaragua has undergone a structural transformation that has enabled the country to grow at a high pace since the mid-1990s. The objective of this study is to investigate the drivers and constraints of growth and productivity in Nicaragua and explore areas with high potential. The value added of this study is to provide an in-depth analysis of the drivers and constraints of Nicaragua’s growth using a wide range of analytical tools. Using these tools, the report finds that boosting growth and reducing poverty requires raising productivity growth and facilitating the entry of women to the labor market. According to the growth diagnostics methodology, this report finds that the areas preventing faster growth are: (i) corruption, (ii) financial development, (iii) governance, (iv) lack of innovation, and (v) property rights. Addressing the identified growth constraints can help the country in the path towards diversification, which will increase the resilience to external shocks, create job opportunities, generate sustainable growth, and reduce dependence on remittances. This report has identified several key areas where policy reforms can help boost productivity and growth over the medium to long term. They include: implementing measures to boost female labor force participation; increasing the access of small firms to finance and addressing collateral laws, credit information coverage, and competition; coordinate with the private sector to identify missing public goods and to design mechanisms to provide them; creation of an enabling environment for innovation; strengthening public institutions through reducing bureaucracy, promoting transparency and rule of law, and strengthening the capacity of the public sector; improving the property titling regime and the land administration system; and strengthening the institutional framework, including tackling corruption.
  • Publication
    Unleashing Central America’s Growth Potential
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-01) Ulku, Hulya; Zaourak, Gabriel
    The objective of this study is to investigate the drivers and constraints of growth and productivity in Guatemala and explore areas with high growth potential. Drawing on the historical growth experience of Guatemala and employing a range of analytical tools, this country analysis aims to provide an in-depth study of the drivers and constraints of the country’s economic growth. The report first takes stock of the historical growth and macro performance of the country, before moving to a growth accounting exercise to understand the past drivers of the country’s growth. In the same vein, the subsequent section analyzes aggregate trends in productivity, the engine of long-term growth, and its relation to the process of structural transformation. The study then uses a cross-country benchmarking and panel data regression analysis based on the growth diagnostic developed by Hausmann et al. (2005) to identify the binding constraints to growth. Finally, the analysis presents the links between growth, diversification, and exports. This analysis relies on a wide range of analytical tools, which are applied to each of the six countries in the study to enable cross-country comparisons. Several quantitative methods are employed to provide an objective assessment of the drivers and constraints of growth in Guatemala, including the long-term growth model (LTGM), the computable general equilibrium model (CGE), growth diagnostics, and product space analyses. This same framework, analytical tools, and data are used for each Central American country to conduct a parallel analysis that enables meaningful cross-country comparisons. Therefore, given the wide breadth of the study, in terms of the methodologies used, subjects analyzed, and countries covered, it does not aim to analyze in depth each driver and constraint of growth and provide granular policy recommendations. The core objective of this study is to inform the policy makers and other interested parties about the country’s strengths and weaknesses related to its growth, and to establish the analytical basis for subsequent investigations of specific areas.
  • Publication
    Unleashing Central America’s Growth Potential
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-08-06) Ulku, Hulya; Zaourak, Gabriel
    Panama’s growth model is at crossroads and the country must be prepared for the new growth model. The objective of this study is to investigate the drivers and constraints of growth and productivity in Panama and explore areas with high growth potential. The value added of the study is to provide an in-depth analysis of the drivers and constraints of Panama’s growth using a wide range of analytical tools. The analysis employs several quantitative methods to provide an objective assessment of the drivers and constraints of growth in Panama, including the long-term growth model (LTGM), computable general equilibrium model (CGE), growth diagnostics and product space analyses. The novelty of this study is to employ the same framework, analytical tools, and data to conduct a parallel analysis for each Central American country to allow for a meaningful cross-country comparison. Therefore, given the wide breadth of the study, in terms of the methodologies used, themes analyzed, and countries covered, it does not envisage to deep dive into each driver and constraint of growth and provide granular policy recommendations. The core objective of this study is to inform the policy makers and other interested parties about the country’s strengths and weaknesses for its growth, and to establish the analytical basis for a subsequent investigation of specific areas.
  • Publication
    Unleashing Central America’s Growth Potential
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-30) Ulku, Hulya; Zaourak, Gabriel
    Despite advances in the growth reform agenda in the last decade, Honduras remains the second-poorest country in Central America, with one of the lowest growth rates in income per capita. The objective of this study is to investigate the drivers and constraints of growth and productivity in Honduras and explore areas with high growth potential. The value added of this study is to provide an in-depth analysis of the drivers and constraints of Honduras’s growth using a wide range of analytical tools. According to the growth diagnostics methodology, this report finds that the areas preventing faster growth are: (i) corruption; (ii) security; (iii) property rights; (iv) innovative activities; and (v) access of small firms to finance. Tackling the identified growth constraints can help Honduras in the transition from an exporter of low-complexity products to an economy with higher share complex products. This report has identified several key areas in which Honduras lags its comparator and aspirational countries, but which can help boost productivity and growth over the medium to long term. They include: improving transparency, accountability, and rule of law; reducing crime and violence; creating an enabling environment for innovation; improving the rule of law to better protect property rights and reduce expropriation risk; increasing the access of finance to small firms; and coordinating with the private sector to identify missing public goods and design mechanism to provide them.
  • Publication
    Unleashing Central America's Growth Potential
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-14) Ulku, Hulya; Zaourak, Gabriel
    Costa Rica has seen remarkable social and economic progress over the last three decades, with income per capita doubling, and well-being indicators reaching levels comparable with countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Nevertheless, the country still faces substantial challenges if it is to continue advancing toward higher living standards. The objective of this study is to investigate the drivers and constraints of growth and productivity in Costa Rica and explore areas with high growth potential. This study contributes to the existing body of work on Costa Rica by employing a wide range of analytical tools to analyze the growth performance of the country from different angles. The analysis employs several quantitative methods to provide an objective assessment of the drivers and constraints of growth in Costa Rica, including the long-term growth model (LTGM), computable general equilibrium model (CGE), growth diagnostics and product space analyses. The novelty of this study is that it employs the same framework, analytical tools and data to conduct a parallel analysis for each Central American country to allow for a cross-country comparison. Given the wide breadth of the study, in terms of the methodologies used, themes analyzed, and countries covered, it does not envisage to deep dive into each driver and constraint of Costa Rica’s growth to provide granular policy recommendations.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    The Global Findex Database 2025: Connectivity and Financial Inclusion in the Digital Economy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-16) Klapper, Leora; Singer, Dorothe; Starita, Laura; Norris, Alexandra
    The Global Findex 2025 reveals how mobile technology is equipping more adults around the world to own and use financial accounts to save formally, access credit, make and receive digital payments, and pursue opportunities. Including the inaugural Global Findex Digital Connectivity Tracker, this fifth edition of Global Findex presents new insights on the interactions among mobile phone ownership, internet use, and financial inclusion. The Global Findex is the world’s most comprehensive database on digital and financial inclusion. It is also the only global source of comparable demand-side data, allowing cross-country analysis of how adults access and use mobile phones, the internet, and financial accounts to reach digital information and resources, save, borrow, make payments, and manage their financial health. Data for the Global Findex 2025 were collected from nationally representative surveys of about 145,000 adults in 141 economies. The latest edition follows the 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021 editions and includes new series measuring mobile phone ownership and internet use, digital safety, and frequency of transactions using financial services. The Global Findex 2025 is an indispensable resource for policy makers in the fields of digital connectivity and financial inclusion, as well as for practitioners, researchers, and development professionals.
  • Publication
    Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Review, October 2025: Transformational Entrepreneurship for Jobs and Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-07) Maloney, William F.; Vuletin, Guillermo; Garriga, Pablo; Morales, Raul
    Latin America and the Caribbean faces a challenging outlook: slow economic and job growth, lower commodity prices, sluggish decline in global interest rates reducing demand and complicating debt service, weak investment, stalled nearshoring, and tight fiscal space. Structural gaps in infrastructure, education, regulation, competition, and tax policy curb technology adoption and quality job creation. The report highlights an entrepreneurship puzzle that despite high measured entrepreneurial spirit, status and activity in the region, growth remains low. This is due to a mass of informal micro firms with little intent to scale coexisting with a shallow pool of transformational firms. Education and STEM shortfalls shrink the pipeline; management quality, registered startups, and tecnolatinas lag peers. Two binding constraints—shallow financial markets and scarce skilled workers—impede scaling. Possible policy responses include strengthening human capital through improved education and targeted training, expanding access to finance by deepening capital markets and enhancing creditor protections, fostering competitive markets and innovation incentives, and modernizing labor regulations to reduce hiring costs.
  • Publication
    Doing Business 2020
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020) World Bank
    Doing Business 2020 is the 17th in a series of annual studies investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. It provides quantitative indicators covering 12 areas of the business environment in 190 economies. The goal of the Doing Business series is to provide objective data for use by governments in designing sound business regulatory policies and to encourage research on the important dimensions of the regulatory environment for firms.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.