Publication:
External Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldova

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dc.contributor.authorKinnunen, Jouko
dc.contributor.authorLofgren, Hans
dc.contributor.authorSulla, Victor
dc.contributor.authorMerotto, Dino
dc.date.accessioned2013-04-11T20:21:32Z
dc.date.available2013-04-11T20:21:32Z
dc.date.issued2013-02
dc.description.abstractThe economy of Moldova, which has one of the lowest levels of gross national income per capita in the World Bank Europe and Central Asia region, is strongly linked to the outside world, especially to the neighboring countries of the European Union and the Commonwealth of Independent States. This paper analyzes a set of scenarios for Moldova up to 2020, defined to shed light on issues related to an alternative future dominated by goods and services exports as opposed to today's reliance on worker remittances. The analysis is based on a Moldovan version of MAMS (Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations), a CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model for country strategy analysis. In sum, the impact of increased export demand and productivity growth is more positive when these shocks are directed to manufacturing, a sector more heavily linked to international trade, compared with agriculture. Increased productivity in transport and communications generates faster growth with widely diffused benefits, reaching households in a relatively equitable manner compared with foreign trade-induced growth. A comparison between adverse shocks in two areas, higher energy import prices, and lower remittances, designed to have similar effects on gross domestic product, suggests that a remittance shock leads to less of a poverty increase, related to the fact that remittance-receiving households are not highly vulnerable; among sectors, agriculture is most vulnerable due to heavy energy reliance. Finally, well-targeted transfer schemes may offer an effective tool for diffusing the benefits of economic growth to the whole population, perhaps also contributing to more general acceptance of structural change.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17361892/external-shocks-fiscal-policy-income-distribution-alternative-scenarios-moldova
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6365
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/13168
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6365
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL
dc.subjectADVERSE SHOCKS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subjectASSETS
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectBRAIN DRAIN
dc.subjectBUDGET CONSTRAINT
dc.subjectBUDGET CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectCAPITAL GAINS
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCKS
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY MARKETS
dc.subjectCOMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION DECISIONS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION LEVELS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectCRISES
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEMAND CURVE
dc.subjectDEMAND CURVES
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectDEPRECIATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
dc.subjectDIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectDISPOSABLE INCOME
dc.subjectDOMESTIC BORROWING
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMANDS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKET
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKETS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE LEVELS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC DOWNTURN
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectECONOMIC SECTORS
dc.subjectECONOMIC STRUCTURE
dc.subjectECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT GROWTH
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM PRICES
dc.subjectEQUIPMENT
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKETS
dc.subjectEXPORT SHARE
dc.subjectEXPORT VOLUMES
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL TRADE
dc.subjectFACTOR DEMAND
dc.subjectFACTOR MARKETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFIXED CAPITAL
dc.subjectFIXED INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN DEBT
dc.subjectFOREIGN DEBTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOREIGN GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN INTEREST
dc.subjectFOREIGN INTERESTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN MARKETS
dc.subjectFOREIGN TRADE
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectFULL EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectFUNCTIONAL FORMS
dc.subjectFUTURE GROWTH
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectGINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BUDGET
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBTS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT POLICY
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subjectGROSS NATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectGROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHOME MARKET
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SAVINGS
dc.subjectIMPACT OF SHOCKS
dc.subjectIMPORT
dc.subjectIMPORT PRICES
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCOME TAX
dc.subjectINCOME TAXES
dc.subjectINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectINTEREST PAYMENTS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL PRICES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT DEMANDS
dc.subjectINVESTMENT FINANCING
dc.subjectINVESTMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE GROWTH
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectLABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectMANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
dc.subjectMARKET ACCESS
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectMARKET SHARE
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMOBILE PHONE
dc.subjectMOBILE PHONES
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectOUTPUTS
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPERSONAL INCOME
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY
dc.subjectPRICE LEVELS
dc.subjectPRIVATE CAPITAL
dc.subjectPRIVATE CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPRIVATE SAVINGS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY INCREASES
dc.subjectPROFIT MAXIMIZATION
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectRAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectREAL ESTATE
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL GROWTH RATES
dc.subjectREAL WAGES
dc.subjectREGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICES
dc.subjectREMITTANCE
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectRETURN
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSAVINGS RATE
dc.subjectSMALL COUNTRY
dc.subjectSOCIAL BENEFITS
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSTOCK CHANGE
dc.subjectSTRONG DEMAND
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.subjectSUPPLIERS
dc.subjectSUPPLY CURVE
dc.subjectSUPPLY CURVES
dc.subjectSUPPLY SIDE
dc.subjectSURPLUS
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX CODE
dc.subjectTAX POLICY
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectTAX REVENUES
dc.subjectTELECOMMUNICATIONS
dc.subjectTELEPHONE LINES
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPORTS
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectTOTAL REVENUE
dc.subjectTRADE BARRIERS
dc.subjectTRADE DEFICIT
dc.subjectTRADE STATISTICS
dc.subjectTRADING
dc.subjectTRADING PARTNERS
dc.subjectTRANSACTION
dc.subjectTRANSACTION COSTS
dc.subjectTRUST FUND
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTIES
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYED
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subjectUNSKILLED LABOR
dc.subjectUPWARD PRESSURE
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectWAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectWAGE INCREASES
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectWORLD MARKET
dc.subjectWORLD MARKETS
dc.subjectWORLD PRICES
dc.titleExternal Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution : Alternative Scenarios for Moldovaen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaJobs
okr.crossref.titleExternal Shocks, Fiscal Policy and Income Distribution: Alternative Scenarios for Moldova
okr.date.disclosure2013-02-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T12:11:14.347913Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17361892/external-shocks-fiscal-policy-income-distribution-alternative-scenarios-moldova
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeSocial Protection and Labor
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid508991468050951085
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6365
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20130219155600
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum17361892
okr.identifier.reportWPS6365
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/02/19/000158349_20130219155600/Rendered/PDF/wps6365.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryMoldova
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Policies
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Emerging Markets
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Currencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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