Publication:
Small Area Estimation-Based Prediction Methods to Track Poverty : Validation and Applications

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorLuoto, Jill
dc.contributor.authorChristiaensen, Luc
dc.contributor.authorStifel, David
dc.contributor.authorLanjouw, Peter
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-19T18:02:38Z
dc.date.available2012-03-19T18:02:38Z
dc.date.issued2011-06-01
dc.description.abstractTracking poverty is predicated on the availability of comparable consumption data and reliable price deflators. However, regular series of strictly comparable data are only rarely available. Price deflators are also often missing or disputed. In response, poverty prediction methods that track consumption correlates as opposed to consumption itself have been developed. These methods typically assume that the estimated relation between consumption and its predictors is stable over time -- an assumption that cannot usually be tested directly. This study analyzes the performance of poverty prediction models based on small area estimation techniques. Predicted poverty estimates are compared with directly observed levels in two country settings where data comparability over time is not a problem. Prediction models that employ either non-staple food or non-food expenditures or a full set of assets as predictors are found to yield poverty estimates that match observed poverty well. This offers some support to the use of such methods to approximate the evolution of poverty. Two further country examples illustrate how an application of the method employing models based on household assets can help to adjudicate between alternative price deflators.en
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110615112641
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5683
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/3447
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPaper is funded by the Knowledge for Change Program (KCP),Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5683
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectABSOLUTE TERMS
dc.subjectABSOLUTE VALUE
dc.subjectARREARS
dc.subjectASSET CLASS
dc.subjectASSET CLASSES
dc.subjectASSET HOLDINGS
dc.subjectBANK POLICY
dc.subjectCHANGES IN POVERTY
dc.subjectCONSUMER DURABLES
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION DATA
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION MEASURE
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION SMOOTHING
dc.subjectCOUNTRY LEVEL
dc.subjectDECLINE IN POVERTY
dc.subjectDEPENDENT VARIABLE
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
dc.subjectDROP IN POVERTY
dc.subjectDURABLES
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectERROR TERM
dc.subjectERROR TERMS
dc.subjectESTIMATION TECHNIQUES
dc.subjectEXPLANATORY VARIABLES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectFOOD EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectFOOD EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFOOD ITEMS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD BUDGET
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD HEAD
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subjectHOUSING
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT
dc.subjectINCIDENCE OF POVERTY
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME ELASTICITY
dc.subjectINCOME POVERTY
dc.subjectINCOME SHOCKS
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION INDICES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARDS
dc.subjectMEASURING POVERTY
dc.subjectMEAT
dc.subjectMODEL SPECIFICATIONS
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectNUTRITIONAL STATUS
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPHYSICAL ASSETS
dc.subjectPOINT ESTIMATES
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOOR AREA
dc.subjectPOOR AREA DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
dc.subjectPOOR PEOPLE
dc.subjectPOVERTY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectPOVERTY CHANGE
dc.subjectPOVERTY CHANGES
dc.subjectPOVERTY COMPARISONS
dc.subjectPOVERTY DEBATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY DECLINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPOVERTY ESTIMATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY GAP
dc.subjectPOVERTY HEAD
dc.subjectPOVERTY INCIDENCE
dc.subjectPOVERTY INCIDENCE ACROSS PROVINCES
dc.subjectPOVERTY INDICATORS
dc.subjectPOVERTY LEVELS
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINES
dc.subjectPOVERTY MAPPING
dc.subjectPOVERTY MAPS
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASURE
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASUREMENT
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASURES
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectQUALITY OF LIFE
dc.subjectREDUCTION IN POVERTY
dc.subjectREGIONAL LEVELS
dc.subjectREGIONAL LOCATION
dc.subjectREGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectRURAL DISTRICTS
dc.subjectRURAL HOUSEHOLD
dc.subjectRURAL HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectRURAL VILLAGES
dc.subjectSMALLHOLDER FARMERS
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
dc.subjectTRANSITION ECONOMIES
dc.subjectTRANSITORY INCOME
dc.subjectURBAN AREAS
dc.subjectURBAN POVERTY
dc.subjectVEGETABLES
dc.subjectWELFARE INDICATOR
dc.subjectWELFARE INDICATORS
dc.subjectWELFARE MEASURE
dc.subjectWELFARE MONITORING
dc.titleSmall Area Estimation-Based Prediction Methods to Track Poverty : Validation and Applicationsen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleSmall Area Estimation-Based Prediction Methods to Track Poverty: Validation and Applications
okr.date.disclosure2011-06-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:26:44.914862Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110615112641
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.guid211731468326995187
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5683
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20110615112641
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum14374097
okr.identifier.reportWPS5683
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/06/15/000158349_20110615112641/Rendered/PDF/WPS5683.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeThe World Region
okr.region.administrativeThe World Region
okr.sectorOther social services,Law and justice,Health,General public administration sector,General education sector
okr.sectorHealth and other social services,Public Administration, Law, and Justice,Education
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.unitDECRG: Poverty & Inequality (DECPI)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationedddec25-fd05-5c5a-b900-c6e67e3312a4
relation.isAuthorOfPublication4e1c5ec5-ed10-5ac7-bc5a-931a3359d573
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryedddec25-fd05-5c5a-b900-c6e67e3312a4
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Thumbnail Image
Name:
WPS5683.pdf
Size:
2.24 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
WPS5683.txt
Size:
117.61 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Policy Research Working Papers