Publication:
Fiscal Adjustment in Latin America and the Caribbean: Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain?

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (3.66 MB)
16,306 downloads
Spanish PDF (3.67 MB)
17,244 downloads
Published
2018-04-17
ISSN
Date
2018-04-12
Author(s)
Friedheim, Diego
Morano, Luis
Camarena, José Andrée
Editor(s)
Abstract
After a growth slowdown that lasted six years, the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region has finally turned the corner and resumed growth at a modest rate of 1.1 percent in 2017 and 1.8 percent expected in 2018. This reflects a more favorable external environment, particularly a recovery in commodity prices. In spite of the benign external environment, most LAC countries still face a fragile fiscal situation. While gradual fiscal adjustments have started in several countries, most countries are still running fiscal deficits and debt levels are high. Further fiscal consolidation is needed to preserve the substantial gains achieved by the region in recent times, in terms of lower inflation, less poverty and inequality, and inclusive growth. This Semiannual Report analyzes the complex decisions regarding fiscal adjustment policies.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Vegh, Carlos A.; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Friedheim, Diego; Morano, Luis; Camarena, José Andrée; Vuletin, Guillermo. 2018. Fiscal Adjustment in Latin America and the Caribbean: Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain?. LAC Semiannual Report;April 2018. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29666 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Effects of the Business Cycle on Social Indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-04-04) Vegh, Carlos A.; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Puig, Jorge; Camarena, José Andrée; Galeano, Luciana; Morano, Luis; Venturi, Lucila; Vuletin, Guillermo
    After mediocre growth in 2018 of 0.7 percent. LAC is expected to perform only marginally better in 2019 (growth of 0.9 percent) followed by a much more solid growth of 2.1 percent in 2020. LAC will face both internal and external challenges during 2019. On the domestic front. the recession in Argentina; a slower than expected recovery in Brazil from the 2014-2015 recession, anemic growth in Mexico. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. present the biggest challenges. On the external front. the sharp drop in net capital inflows to the region since early 2018 and the monetary policy normalization in the United States stand among the greatest perils. Furthermore, the recent increase in poverty in Brazil because of the recession points to the large effects that the business cycle may have on poverty. The core of this report argues that social indicators that are very sensitive to the business cycle may yield a highly misleading picture of permanent social gains in the region.
  • Publication
    From Known Unknowns to Black Swans
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10-05) Vegh, Carlos A.; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Medina, Juan Pablo; Friedheim, Diego; Morano, Luis; Venturi, Lucila; Vuletin, Guillermo
    After a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region’s recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April, the growth slowdown in Brazil, and the continuing economic, social, and humanitarian collapse in Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk, develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice. The overall message of the report is that there are different types of risk: (i) those that follow standard probabilistic distributions that can be easily insured by the market; and (ii) those that exhibit fat-tails (i.e., non-negligible probabilities of extreme events) that are much harder to ensure by the market (like earthquakes). Finally, there are “black swans” that, by definition, are unpredictable events that cannot be insured and force countries to rely exclusively on ex-post aid and/or broad preventive measures. In other words, the fatter are the tails of a distribution, the less market insurance is available, and the more countries will have to rely on ex-post aid. Yet progress in managing risk continues to be made (the Catastrophe Bond for earthquakes in the Pacific Alliance, recently sponsored by the World Bank, being an outstanding example). This would have been unthinkable some time ago. New knowledge and insurance schemes, all supported by institutions such as the World Bank, will undoubtedly make LAC a safer region to live and prosper.
  • Publication
    Fooled by the Cycle
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-06) Camarena, José Andrée; Galeano, Luciana; Morano, Luis; Puig, Jorge; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Vegh, Carlos; Venturi, Lucila; Vuletin, Guillermo
    This paper studies the time series behavior of a set of widely-used social indicators and uncovers two important stylized facts. First, not all social indicators are created equal in terms of the importance of cyclical fluctuations. While some social indicators such as the unemployment rate and monetary poverty show large cyclical fluctuations, other social measures such as the Human Development Index are, by construction, dominated by long-run trends. Second, interestingly, yet not surprisingly, a large part of the cyclical fluctuations in social indicators can be explained by cyclical changes in income (proxied by real GDP per capita). For this reason, countries with large cyclical income volatility exhibit, in turn, large cyclical changes in some of these social indicators (particularly in those indicators that are more prone to cyclical fluctuations). Since cyclical income volatility is much larger in the developing world, these two critical stylized facts raise fundamental issues regarding the duration of improvements in social indicators (like the ones observed in many developing countries during the last commodity super-cycle). After a detailed conceptual and methodological discussion of these issues, and relying on a global sample of industrial and developing countries, this paper digs deeper into the importance of cyclical versus permanent components by extending the seminal contribution of Datt and Ravallion (1992). In particular, it shows that more than 40 percent of the fall in monetary poverty observed in Latin America and the Caribbean during the so-called Golden Decade can be attributed to cyclical changes in income. While in principle universal, these concerns are particularly relevant in the developing world where, compared to developed countries, output volatility is larger and driven, to a large extent, by external factors (such as commodity prices).
  • Publication
    Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions and Expansions : Does It Matter Whether Government Spending Is Increasing or Decreasing?
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-07) Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
    Using non-linear methods, this paper finds that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. For industrial countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one's priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the "true" long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In the case of developing countries, the bias results from the fact that the multiplier for recessions and government spending going down (the "when-it-rains-it-pours" phenomenon) is larger than when government spending is going up.
  • Publication
    Public Spending Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-07) Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Vuletin, Guillermo
    In low- and middle-income economies, public spending policies diverge significantly from those of industrialized nations due to structural differences. Low- and middle-income economies often make long-term commitments based on short-term economic conditions, leading to mismatches between spending maturity and economic cycles. These mismatches can exacerbate fiscal imbalances and hinder economic growth by forcing compositional changes in public spending. "Public Spending Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: When Cyclicality Meets Rigidities" describes significant cyclical behavior variations in low- and middle-income markets. Contrary to Keynesian principles, public spending in these economies tends to be procyclical during economic booms, driven by increased borrowing and political pressures to address social deficits, but policy makers are unable or unwilling to retrench during economic busts. This approach not only amplifies macroeconomic volatility but also plants the seeds for fiscal distress, which is typically addressed by diminishing the quantity and quality of public investment—with serious consequences for long-term growth. Labor market informality further complicates matters, rendering automatic stabilizers like unemployment insurance impractical. Instead, governments rely on public employment and social transfer programs, which are downwardly rigid and can contribute to the expansion of government size over time. Addressing these anomalies requires policy interventions beyond traditional recommendations. Implementing fiscal rules to restrain overspending during economic upturns, enhancing the efficiency of public goods provision, and establishing mechanisms to adjust social programs during economic fluctuations are suggested approaches. In addition, measures to protect public investment and mitigate biases against pension benefits could aid in fostering long-term economic sustainability and welfare improvement. Public Spending Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean will be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and anyone with an interest in developing mechanisms for helping low- and middle-income economies weather economic storms.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03) World Bank Group
    This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.
  • Publication
    Comoros Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-18) World Bank Group
    The Union of the Comoros (The Comoros) has significant vulnerability to climate change-related risks but has considerable opportunities to strengthen preparedness and resilience against these challenges. According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, the Comoros is the 29th-most vulnerable country to climate change and the 163rd most ready to adapt (out of 191). The Comoros archipelago is exposed to many natural hazards that adversely affect the country’s natural capital, people, and physical infrastructure. In 2014, the economic cost of climate-related disasters was estimated at 5.7 million dollars annually, equivalent to 9.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between 2018 and 2023, as many as 11 tropical depressions or cyclones impacted the country, with Cyclone Kenneth causing the greatest damage, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, resulting in total economic growth falling from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 1.9 percent in 2019. More than 345,000 people (40 percent of the population) were affected by the cyclone, with 185,000 people experiencing severe impacts and 12,000 people displaced. However, there is an opportunity for the country to grow more robust and shock-responsive, and to establish pre-positioned funding mechanisms to enhance future crisis response efforts. For the Comoros, adaptation and climate-resilient development are the key climate change focus areas, with the country projected to face 836 million dollars 2050 in additional costs due to climate-related impacts. Current plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the Comoros include efforts to improve water management, strengthen coastal protection, and develop climate-smart agriculture practices. Given the country’s reliance on its natural resource base for economic growth and mobility, protection of these resources from climate change will be essential for promoting resilient growth and development. In addition to growing the adaptive capacity of the country’s natural resource sectors, strategic economic diversification will be important to help minimize future climate impacts, and development activities will need to be undertaken in such a way as to attract low-carbon co-benefits. The Union of the Comoros is committed to addressing climate change through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and national priorities. The country’s NDC (which was revised in 2021 for a ten-year horizon) sets ambitious targets, with a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 23 percent by 2030. The country also plans to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in its energy portfolio, reaching 33 MW by 2030. This will not only promote low-carbon development but also reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal, which currently make up 95 percent of the energy mix. Additionally, the Comoros has declared its intention to increase CO2 removals by 47 percent by 2030, compared to BAU.
  • Publication
    Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23) World Bank Group
    Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, with the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa (US3,874 dollars per capita), which could be leveraged for sustainable and resilient growth. However, Guinea-Bissau faces significant development hurdles, such as high poverty rates, political instability, and economic challenges, including an over-reliance on cashew nuts. Rural poverty has increased, and the nation's infrastructure, education, and health care systems are underdeveloped. Climate change poses a severe threat, potentially impacting agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Without adaptation, it could lead to a significant cut in real GDP per capita (minus 7.3 percent by 2050) and increase in poverty (with up to over 200,000 additional poor by 2050, that is, 5 percent of the expected population, in the worst scenario). The country's low greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise, mainly due to agriculture and land-use changes, with deforestation being a major contributing factor. Although Guinea-Bissau is a low emitter, it has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The Nationally Determined Contribution outlines significant climate actions, with initiatives focused on forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and community development. However, the country's political instability, institutional weaknesses, and limited financial resources pose challenges to implementing these climate commitments, which depend heavily on external funding. The financial sector's underdevelopment and vulnerability to external shocks limit its ability to support green investments, though reforms could enhance resilience. Guinea-Bissau must consider its climate financing as development financing and vice-versa, engage the private sector, and integrate climate goals with national development plans to ensure a sustainable future. Concessional climate financing is vital due to the underdeveloped financial sector and the government’s limited borrowing capacity. Addressing Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to climate change and its structural issues requires a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies. This could involve improving governance, diversifying the economy, protecting natural capital, developing human capital, and investing in sustainable agriculture and infrastructure. The transition to a more sustainable and inclusive development pathway that supports economic growth is possible, but requires focusing on key strategic sectors, enhancing institutional capacity, and creating the conditions to mobilize finance. As a highly vulnerable country, there are myriad needs in the different sectors; however, to be more efficient and effective, Guinea-Bissau should prioritize actions in a few sectors, especially actions on biodiversity, agriculture, and social protection. Low carbon development, especially in energy and forestry sectors, could provide cost-efficient solutions and attract climate finance, including from the private sector, which will support the overall development agenda.
  • Publication
    Jobs in a Changing Climate: Insights from World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports Covering 93 Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05) World Bank
    The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) provide a crosscutting look at how countries’ development prospects, and the job opportunities they offer to their people, can be threatened by climate impacts and supported by climate policies. Climate change and policies affect jobs through impacts on productivity, energy and material efficiency, and physical, human, and natural capital. They can also transform employment opportunities, especially through complementary measures that help workers and firms adapt to and benefit from new technologies and production practices. Prepared by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), CCDRs integrate country perspectives, climate science and economic modeling, private sector information, and policy analysis to assess how countries can successfully grow and develop their economies and create jobs despite increasing climate risks and while achieving their climate objectives and commitments. Each CCDR starts from the country’s development priorities, opportunities, and challenges, and is developed in close consultation with governments, businesses, and civil society, ensuring the recommendations reflect national priorities. By combining evidence on adaptation, resilience, and emissions pathways, CCDRs highlight where climate action can reinforce development and job creation, and where targeted policies are needed to manage risks and smooth labor market transitions. Taken together, these elements can help create local jobs, ensure economic transitions are just and inclusive, and equip workers and firms to navigate the disruptions and opportunities of a changing climate and changing technologies.
  • Publication
    Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-22) World Bank Group
    Mongolia’s development prospects are uniquely challenged by both the impacts of climate change and the global shift toward a low-carbon economy. The country’s efforts toward decarbonization pose significant challenges given the structurally high-emission intensity of its economy. While challenging, climate action also presents Mongolia with opportunities to achieve important development benefits. The effects of climate risks and the shift away from coal will have diverse impacts across different regions, communities, and socioeconomic levels. The report assesses the critical interconnections between Mongolia’s development ambitions and climate change action and identifies ways to transition to a more economically diversified, inclusive, and resilient development path. It highlights key climate and transition risks affecting Mongolia’s future development and presents a pathway to enhance climate mitigation and adaptation. The report also makes a case for strengthening policies to enhance resilience to climate change and ensure a just transition, particularly for the most vulnerable. The report is structured as follows: section 1 gives introduction. Section 2 delves into the linkages between development and climate in Mongolia and presents model-based findings on the economic and poverty impacts of climate change under different scenarios. Section 3 covers four in-depth sectoral analyses. The first two mainly focus on adaptation to climate change in the agriculture and water sectors. The third considers prospects for the extraction sector, while the fourth sectoral analysis focuses on decarbonizing power and heat generation. Section 4 shifts the focus to how the government can boost resilience for climate-vulnerable populations. Section 5 outlines options for mobilizing private and public financing and private investments to support the green transition. Section 6 examines the existing institutional and governance structure for climate action and presents recommendations to improve its effectiveness, and section 7 concludes with a framework for prioritizing the policy actions outlined in this report.