Publication:
What Goes Up Must Come Down : Cyclicality in Public Wage Bill Spending

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dc.contributor.authorEckardt, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorMills, Zachary
dc.date.accessioned2014-02-03T20:30:35Z
dc.date.available2014-02-03T20:30:35Z
dc.date.issued2014-01
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes the cyclicality of public sector wage bill spending in Europe and Central Asia and assesses the impact of wage bill spending on fiscal discipline before, during, and after the global financial crisis of 2008/09. While there are important differences across countries, the results show that public sector wage bill spending tends to behave strongly pro-cyclically, especially in transition economies. Moreover, while wage bill spending is pro-cyclical during both good and bad times, adjustments during economic downturns tend to be sharper than expansions during periods of economic booms. In addition, there is evidence of political cycles, with stronger wage bill growth in pre-election periods. Finally, the analysis reveals that while the size of the wage bill does not seem to systematically affect fiscal discipline across countries, expansions within countries over time are associated with deteriorating fiscal positions. These findings provide a strong impetus for public wage and employment policies that aim to restrain excessive growth of the wage bill during boom periods. This prospective management of the wage bill would not only reduce the need for painful adjustments during periods of fiscal consolidation, but also contribute to strengthening the overall countercyclical and stabilizing impact of fiscal policies.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/18859631/goes-up-must-come-down-cyclicality-public-wage-bill-spending
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6760
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/16817
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6760
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subjectATTRITION
dc.subjectAUTOMATIC STABILIZERS
dc.subjectBILL
dc.subjectBILLS
dc.subjectBUDGET SURPLUS
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCONDITIONALITY
dc.subjectCONSOLIDATION
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION GROWTH
dc.subjectCONTROL VARIABLES
dc.subjectCROSS-COUNTRY STUDY
dc.subjectCYCLICAL ADJUSTMENT
dc.subjectDATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR SERVICES
dc.subjectDEPENDENT VARIABLE
dc.subjectDEPENDENT VARIABLES
dc.subjectDOWNWARD RIGIDITY
dc.subjectDUMMY VARIABLE
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CYCLE
dc.subjectECONOMIC DOWNTURNS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT GROWTH
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT POLICIES
dc.subjectERROR TERM
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFISCAL ADJUSTMENTS
dc.subjectFISCAL AGGREGATES
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCES
dc.subjectFISCAL CONSOLIDATION
dc.subjectFISCAL CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subjectFISCAL DISCIPLINE
dc.subjectFISCAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFISCAL PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL PERSPECTIVE
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFISCAL POSITION
dc.subjectFISCAL POSITIONS
dc.subjectFISCAL PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectFISCAL RULES
dc.subjectFISCAL TRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectFIXED EFFECTS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEFICIT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectHEALTH SERVICES
dc.subjectHIGH WAGE
dc.subjectHOUSING
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINFLATIONARY PRESSURES
dc.subjectJOB SECURITY
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subjectLOCAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectMINISTRY OF FINANCE
dc.subjectMONETARY ECONOMICS
dc.subjectNOMINAL WAGE
dc.subjectNOMINAL WAGES
dc.subjectOUTPUT GAP
dc.subjectOUTPUT GAPS
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectPOLITICIANS
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRIMARY OBJECTIVE
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR WAGES
dc.subjectPROGRAMS
dc.subjectPUBLIC
dc.subjectPUBLIC CHOICE
dc.subjectPUBLIC CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPUBLIC ECONOMICS
dc.subjectPUBLIC EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC GOODS
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAMS
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectPUBLIC PAY
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR JOBS
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR PAY
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR WAGE
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR WAGE BILL
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR WAGE BILLS
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR WAGES
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR WORKFORCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTORS
dc.subjectPUBLIC SERVICE
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectPUBLIC WAGE
dc.subjectRANDOM WALK
dc.subjectREAL GROWTH
dc.subjectREAL GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectREAL WAGE
dc.subjectREAL WAGES
dc.subjectRECESSIONS
dc.subjectREMUNERATION
dc.subjectRESOURCE CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectREVENUE COLLECTION
dc.subjectROBUSTNESS CHECKS
dc.subjectSERIAL CORRELATION
dc.subjectSOCIAL POLICY
dc.subjectSOCIAL WELFARE
dc.subjectSOCIAL WELFARE SPENDING
dc.subjectSTANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectSURPLUS
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectTOTAL LABOR FORCE
dc.subjectTOTAL PUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectTOTAL SPENDING
dc.subjectTRANSITION ECONOMIES
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUPWARD PRESSURE
dc.subjectWAGE BILL
dc.subjectWAGE EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectWAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectWAGE POLICIES
dc.subjectWAGE_BILL
dc.titleWhat Goes Up Must Come Down : Cyclicality in Public Wage Bill Spendingen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaJobs
okr.crossref.titleWhat Goes up Must Come Down — Cyclicality in Public Wage Bill Spending
okr.date.disclosure2014-01-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:38:54.229020Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/18859631/goes-up-must-come-down-cyclicality-public-wage-bill-spending
okr.globalpracticeSocial Protection and Labor
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.globalpracticeGovernance
okr.guid943151468022738610
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6760
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20140127110607
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum18859631
okr.identifier.reportWPS6760
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/01/27/000158349_20140127110607/Rendered/PDF/WPS6760.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.topicPublic Sector Expenditure Policy
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Currencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.topicPublic Sector Management and Reform
okr.topicPublic Sector Economics
okr.topicPublic Sector Development
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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