Publication:
Forecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopia

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dc.contributor.authorBlankespoor, Brian
dc.contributor.authorPandey, Kiran Dev
dc.contributor.authorWheeler, David
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-19T19:11:38Z
dc.date.available2012-03-19T19:11:38Z
dc.date.issued2009-07-01
dc.description.abstractThis paper describes an approach to forecasting future climate at the local level using historical weather station and satellite data and future projections of climate data from global climate models (GCMs) that is easily understandable by policymakers and planners. It describes an approach to synthesize the myriad climate projections, often with conflicting messages, into an easily-interpreted set of graphical displays that summarizes the basic implications of the ensemble of available climate models. The method described in the paper can be applied to publicly-available data for any country and for any number of climate models. It does not depend on geographic scale and can be applied at the subnational, national, or regional level. The paper illustrates the results for future climate for Ethiopia using future climate scenarios projects by 8 global climate models. The graphical displays of nine possible future climate regimes (average temperature, precipitation and their seasonal distribution) for each grid-cell about 50km X 50 km). It also provides the probability associated with each of the nine-climate regimes.en
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090720131835
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5004
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/4196
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5004
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectBENCHMARKS
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE FORECASTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODELS
dc.subjectCLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIATION
dc.subjectCLIMATIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectCLIMATIC RESEARCH UNIT
dc.subjectCRU
dc.subjectDOMAIN
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectGCM
dc.subjectGLOBAL SCALE
dc.subjectGLOBAL WARMING
dc.subjectINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectLOW RAINFALL
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectPROBABILITIES
dc.subjectPROBABILITY
dc.subjectRAIN
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectSATELLITE
dc.subjectSATELLITES
dc.subjectSPRING
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE
dc.subjectWEATHER
dc.subjectWEATHER PATTERNS
dc.subjectWEATHER STATIONS
dc.subjectWEB
dc.subjectAVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL
dc.subjectAVERAGE RAINFALL
dc.subjectCLIMATE DATA
dc.subjectCLIMATE EVENTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE FORECASTING
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODELING
dc.subjectCLIMATE PATTERNS
dc.subjectCLIMATE PREDICTION
dc.subjectCLIMATE PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectCLIMATE REGIMES
dc.subjectCLIMATE TRENDS
dc.subjectDISTILLATION
dc.subjectECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectEMISSIONS SCENARIOS
dc.subjectFUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectGLOBAL CLIMATE
dc.subjectGLOBAL EMISSIONS
dc.subjectHIGH TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectLOCAL CLIMATE
dc.subjectRAINFALL CONDITIONS
dc.subjectRAINFALL DATA
dc.subjectRAINFALL PATTERNS
dc.subjectSEASONAL RAINFALL
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE RISES
dc.subjectTEMPERATURES
dc.titleForecasting Local Climate for Policy Analysis : A Pilot Application for Ethiopiaen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleForecasting Local Climate For Policy Analysis: A Pilot Application For Ethiopia
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:23:18.058702Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090720131835
okr.globalpracticeWater
okr.guid207261468030543033
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5004
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20090720131835
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum10839732
okr.identifier.reportWPS5004
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/07/20/000158349_20090720131835/Rendered/PDF/WPS5004.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.countryEthiopia
okr.region.geographicalSub-Saharan Africa
okr.region.geographicalEast Africa
okr.topicWater Resources::Water Conservation
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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