dc.contributor.author	Devarajan, Shantayanan
dc.contributor.author	Mottaghi, Lili
dc.date.accessioned	2016-02-01T23:00:24Z
dc.date.available	2016-02-01T23:00:24Z
dc.date.issued	2016-02-03
dc.description.abstract	This report estimates economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to fall short of expectations, at 2.6 percent in 2015, below the 2.8 percent predicted in October. Being constrained by war, terrorism and to some extent cheap oil, short term growth prospects in MENA remain “cautiously pessimistic.” Not only have the civil wars caused untold damage to human and physical capital, in Yemen the number of poor people has almost doubled after the war, but they have created one of the biggest forced displacement crises since World War II. The report examines the different ways in which civil wars are affecting the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement. We also explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. A peace settlement in the war-torn Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen could lead to a swift rebound in oil output and exports, allowing them to increase fiscal space, improve current account balances and boost economic growth in the medium term with positive spillovers to the neighboring countries.	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/978-1-4648-0822-7
dc.identifier.isbn	978-1-4648-0822-7
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/23705
dc.language.iso	en_US
dc.publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject	civil war
dc.subject	conflict
dc.subject	development economics
dc.subject	economic model
dc.subject	economic policy
dc.subject	growth
dc.subject	investment
dc.subject	nuclear talks
dc.subject	oil prices
dc.subject	oil-exporting countries
dc.subject	sanctions
dc.subject	trade
dc.subject	volatility
dc.subject	windfall
dc.title	MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016	en
dc.title.alternative	Bulletin trimestriel d’information économique de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord, janvier 2016 : Les effets économiques de la guerre et de la paix	en
dc.title.subtitle	The Economic Effects of War and Peace	en
dc.type	Serial	en
dc.type	Sériel	fr
dc.type	Serial	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.crossref.title	MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016: The Economic Effects of War and Peace
okr.date.disclosure	2016-02-03
okr.doctype	Publications & Research
okr.doctype	Publications & Research::Publication
okr.guid	482151468185969364
okr.guid	117811467995376030
okr.guid	644191468191061975
okr.identifier.doi	10.1596/978-1-4648-0822-7
okr.identifier.report	103013
okr.language.supported	en
okr.region.administrative	Middle East and North Africa
okr.region.geographical	Middle East
okr.region.geographical	North Africa
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topic	Conflict and Development::Conflict and Fragile States
okr.topic	Communities and Human Settlements::Human Migrations & Resettlements
okr.topic	International Economics and Trade::International Migration
okr.topic	Governance::Democratic Government
okr.unit	Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa (MNACE)
relation.isAuthorOfPublication	ddcdf87a-9a86-50e0-b365-0d2c747a0607
relation.isAuthorOfPublication	4e062ce1-f588-5067-9d86-7e1de94e72cc
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery	ddcdf87a-9a86-50e0-b365-0d2c747a0607

Publication: MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016: The Economic Effects of War and Peace

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MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016: The Economic Effects of War and Peace