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Estimating spatially disaggregated probability of severe COVID-19 and the impact of handwashing interventions: The case of Zimbabwe

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dc.contributor.authorJoseph, George
dc.contributor.authorMilusheva, Sveta
dc.contributor.authorSturrock, Hugh
dc.contributor.authorMapako, Tonderai
dc.contributor.authorAyling, Sophie Charlotte Emi
dc.contributor.authorHoo, Yi Rong
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-05T18:34:09Z
dc.date.available2023-04-05T18:34:09Z
dc.date.issued2023-04-05
dc.description.abstractThe severity of COVID-19 disease varies substantially between individuals, with some infections being asymptomatic while others are fatal. Several risk factors have been identified that affect the progression of SARS-CoV-2 to severe COVID-19. They include age, smoking and presence of underlying comorbidities such as respiratory illness, HIV, anemia and obesity. Given that respiratory illness is one such comorbidity and is affected by hand hygiene, it is plausible that improving access to handwashing could lower the risk of severe COVID-19 among a population. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of improved access to handwashing on the risk of respiratory illness and its knock-on impact on the risk of developing severe COVID-19 disease across Zimbabwe. We use a geospatial model that allows us to estimate differential clinical risk at the district level. Results show that the current risk of severe disease is heterogeneous across the country, due to differences in individual characteristics and household conditions. This study demonstrates how household level improved access to handwashing could lead to reductions in the risk of severe COVID-19 of up to 16% from the estimated current levels across all districts. Taken alongside the likely impact on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 itself, as well as countless other pathogens, this result adds further support for the expansion of access to handwashing across the country. It also highlights the spatial differences in risk of severe COVID-19, and thus the opportunity for better planning to focus limited resources in high risk areas in order to potentially reduce the number of severe cases.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099652002282334052/IDU08f85d845039ee0445409abe0ddfb696636e5
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10328
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39636
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers; 10328
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectCOVID-19 PANDEMIC
dc.subjectCOVID SEVERITY
dc.subjectHAND WASHING INTERVENTION
dc.subjectSEVERE COVID PREVENTION
dc.subjectPUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subjectSPATIAL MODELLING
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.titleEstimating spatially disaggregated probability of severe COVID-19 and the impact of handwashing interventionsen
dc.title.subtitleThe case of Zimbabween
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleEstimating spatially disaggregated probability of severe COVID-19 and the impact of handwashing interventions: The case of Zimbabwe
okr.date.disclosure2023-02-28
okr.date.lastmodified2023-02-28T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099652002282334052/IDU08f85d845039ee0445409abe0ddfb696636e5
okr.guid099652002282334052
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10328
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10328
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34010570
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34010570
okr.identifier.reportWPS10328
okr.import.id338
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099652002282334052/pdf/IDU08f85d845039ee0445409abe0ddfb696636e5.pdfen
okr.region.countryZimbabwe
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::SARS
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Communicable Diseases
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Health and Sanitation
okr.unitSouth Asia Water (SSAW2)
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