Publication:
Demand and Supply Shocks: Evidence from Corporate Earning Calls

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dc.contributor.authorRuch, Franz Ulrich
dc.contributor.authorTaskin, Temel
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-03T15:43:27Z
dc.date.available2022-02-03T15:43:27Z
dc.date.issued2022-02
dc.description.abstractThis paper quantifies global demand, supply, and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. Two alternative approaches are used to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earning call transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model. The results highlight sharp contrast in the size of supply and demand shocks over time and across sectors. While the Great Recession was characterized by demand shocks, COVID-19 caused sizable disruptions to both demand and supply. These shocks were broad-based with varying relative importance across major sectors. Furthermore, certain sub-sectors, such as professional and business services, internet retail, and grocery/department stores, fared better than others during the pandemic. The results imply that both targeted policies and conventional countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy can accelerate the economic recovery. Large demand shocks highlight an environment of deficient demand with countercyclical policy calibrated to the size of these shocks.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/299521643742060995/Demand-and-Supply-Shocks-Evidence-from-Corporate-Earning-Calls
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9922
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/36923
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9922
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectSUPPLY SHOCK
dc.subjectDEMAND SHOCK
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectSTOCK MARKET
dc.subjectSENTIMENT
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectPANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectGREAT RECESSION
dc.titleDemand and Supply Shocksen
dc.title.subtitleEvidence from Corporate Earning Callsen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleDemand and Supply Shocks: Evidence from Corporate Earning Calls
okr.date.disclosure2022-02-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:28:17.256872Z
okr.date.lastmodified2022-02-01T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/299521643742060995/Demand-and-Supply-Shocks-Evidence-from-Corporate-Earning-Calls
okr.guid299521643742060995
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9922
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b088cbd7f5_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33718898
okr.identifier.reportWPS9922
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/299521643742060995/pdf/Demand-and-Supply-Shocks-Evidence-from-Corporate-Earning-Calls.pdfen
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Investment and Investment Climate
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Business Environment
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Private Sector Economics
okr.unitEFI - Prospects Group (EPGDR)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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