Publication: Unemployment and Participation in Violence
Loading...
Files in English
17,089 downloads
Published
2011
ISSN
Date
2012-06-26
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Explores the link between unemployment and conflict (including gang violence) using economic models of developing country civil wars with special focus on the occurrence of 'youth bulge.' Despite the lack of reliable evidence on youth unemployment, the view is widespread that youth unemployment constitutes a key cause of insurgency or civil war in developing countries. The role of labor markets, and in particular unemployment, in causing violence and violent conflict, is set forth in the 'economic approach' championed by Gary Becker.Gang members reported their participation is shaped by 'political views that their ethnic groups suffer discrimination in schools, labor markets, and financial institutions.' Other trends that affect employment and unemployment belong to a larger social structure shaped by ethnic/racial classification and institutional factors of weak family or police structure and the power and violence of family and police.The links between labor markets and violent conflict are complex and varied, and unlikely to respond to simple policy interventions designed from outside to reduce the risk of civil war.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Cramer, Christopher. 2011. Unemployment and Participation in Violence. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9247 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Interpersonal Violence Prevention : A Review of the Evidence and Emerging Lessons(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011)Acknowledges how development is held back by violence, especially high levels of interpersonal violence that includes harmful acts of gangs and domestic violence. Chronic, high rates of such violence deter investment, erode social cohesion, limit access to employment and educational opportunities, drain state resources, and threaten governance at various levels. Violence is an important signal of fragility, because it indicates the breakdown of state capacity to provide basic security, and of societal capacity to impose social controls on violent behavior. Risk factors for increasing violence include high unemployment, a history of conflict, rapid urbanization, high inequality, trafficking in weapons and drugs, and institutional fragility. Violent behavior may offer opportunities for physical, social and economic mobility. Gender-based violence is related to both criminal and political violence. Factors for prevention are linked to community and family connection, early intervention, and local government intervention programs like community policing. Because various types of violence overlap, more integrated approaches present the most effective means for prevention while avoiding duplication of efforts.Publication Food Security and Conflict(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-10-22)Finds that food insecurity has clearly contributed to outbreaks of social unrest or worse, while conflict has induced situations of food insecurity. The factors of population growth, competitive pressure on land and water use, climate change, and price volatility tend to increase stress, raising the risk of civil unrest or conflict. The most fragile countries often have the least capability to respond, falling victim to the vicious circle of conflict and food insecurity. Food aid, including insurance options for agricultural commodities, limits immediate food insecurity impacts of conflict and continues to alleviate even greater harm to innocent people. Such aid can also assist in better transition to longer-term agricultural productivity growth and local market development, especially in rural areas that tend to be poorer; however, it is not possible to significantly reduce conflict on a sustained basis without significant new investment and partnerships in key areas of agriculture and rural development.Publication Food Insecurity and Conflict : Applying the WDR Framework(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-08-02)Delineates the link between food insecurity and conflict, addressing both traditional (civil and interstate war) and emerging (regime stability, violent rioting, and communal conflict) threats to security and political stability. National governments, intergovernmental organizations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) all work to address food insecurity and break the vicious cycle between food insecurity and instability. Increased food prices, especially in 2007-08 due to biofuel and energy prices and demand outpacing supply, lead to heightened tensions and enhance fragility. Food assistance and rebuilding social capital along with institutional reform that supports market development allows communities to develop social cohesion. Regional and global reserves, international support, and food transfers all contribute to solutions but all have negative factors as well as positive, especially because none of them can stabilize food prices and adequately address climate change effects. During transition and peacebuilding phases, food assistance plays a critical role and should not be phased out too quickly.Publication Conflict Relapse and the Sustainability of Post-Conflict Peace(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011)Finds civil wars and their recurrence fall into three patterns: (1) the 'conflict trap,' meaning once a country experiences one civil war, it is significantly more likely to experience additional episodes of violence as shown by a 57 percent recidivism rate from 1945-2009; (2) the dominant form of armed conflict in the world today is recurring civil war; and (3) concentration of civil wars in a few regions, especially in the poorest and weakest states of sub-Saharan Africa. Renewed wars result primarily from factors such as grievances based on economic under-development and ethnic and religious differences, and opportunities for rebellion created by rebel recruitment, money and supplies, and constraints on state capacity. Political institutions are the key to explaining why some countries can escape the conflict trap while others cannot. How the war ends--whether by ceasefire or comprehensive peace treaty--appears not to matter, although the government's ability to credibly commit to a peace agreement likely affects its ability to avoid repeat civil war.Publication Demographic and Health Consequences of Civil Conflict(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011)Explains that the well-being of individuals and families in conflict and post-conflict states is a key condition for sustainable peace and long-term development, and matches within countries the differences in scale and intensity of civil conflict with the needs of the affected populations. After a steady post-Cold War decline, the number of ongoing civil conflicts in poor countries increased for the first time to 30 in 2007, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme (UCDP). These conflicts subject the civilian population, including women and children, to arbitrary violence and to systematic and long-term deprivations of food and public health services. The size and profile of this population, its essential demographic data, and its health and nutritional status are needed information to help set priorities for interventions both during and after the conflict. The top priorities include infant health, maternal care, food and nutrition, and basic sanitation. Development programming for post-conflict countries should be based on accurate and timely evidence to justify the priorities selected.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.Publication Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17)Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.Publication Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04)Grounded in new evidence from satellite data, “Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future” presents the first global assessment of freshwater reserves over the past two decades. The findings expose an alarming trend of “continental drying,” a persistent long-term decline in freshwater availability across vast landmasses. Not only are droughts and deluges becoming more unpredictable, but the total amount of freshwater available for use has also significantly declined. Continental drying, driven by global warming, worsening droughts, and unsustainable water and land use, is a silent but accelerating crisis—largely unknown to the public—that reshapes the global water narrative. Continental drying raises profound risks. This report reveals new empirical evidence showing how freshwater depletion leads to major job losses, reduced incomes, wildfires, and biodiversity threats. In the long term, the combined effects of drying and warming could push societies toward a tipping point where damage accelerates rapidly and adaptation becomes increasingly difficult. Against the backdrop of continental drying, global water consumption rose by 25 percent between 2000 and 2019, with about a third of this increase occurring in regions already experiencing drying. Compounding the pressure, a substantial share of water use in drying regions remains inefficient. Continental Drying identifies hot spots where rising demand and declining supply converge and explores where and how water savings can be realized. This report recommends a three-pronged approach to address the crisis: managing demand, augmenting water supply, and improving water allocation. Five cross-cutting levers—strengthening institutions, reforming water tariffs and repurposing subsidies, adopting water accounting, leveraging data and technological innovations, and valuing water in trade—are essential for effective implementation and to attract private investment to finance the approach. Beyond water, addressing trade barriers, investing in education and skills development, and improving access to markets and financial services are critical for strengthening job and livelihood resilience amid a continental drying crisis.Publication Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12)Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.