Publication:
Data Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorGatti, Roberta
dc.contributor.authorLederman, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorIslam, Asif M.
dc.contributor.authorNguyen, Ha
dc.contributor.authorLotfi, Rana
dc.contributor.authorMousa, Mennatallah Emam
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-19T21:26:12Z
dc.date.available2023-04-19T21:26:12Z
dc.date.issued2023-04-19
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines the role of a country’s data transparency in explaining gross domestic product growth forecast errors. It reports four sets of results that have not been previously reported in the existing literature. First, forecast errors—the difference between forecasted and realized gross domestic product growth—are large. Globally, between 2010 and 2020, the average same-year forecast error was 1.3 percentage points for the World Bank’s forecasts published in January of each year, and 1.5 percentage points for the International Monetary Fund’s January forecasts. Second, the Middle East and North Africa region has the largest forecast errors compared to other regions. Third, data capacity and transparency significantly explain forecast errors. On average, an improvement in a country’s Statistical Capacity Index, a measure of data capacity and transparency, is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors. A one standard deviation increase in the log of the Statistical Capacity Index is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors by 0.44 percentage point for World Bank forecasts and 0.49 percentage point for International Monetary Fund forecasts. The results are robust to a battery of control variables and robustness checks. Fourth, the role of the overall data ecosystem, not just those elements related to gross domestic product growth forecasting, is important for the accuracy of gross domestic product growth forecasts. Finally, gross domestic product growth forecasts from the World Bank are more accurate and less optimistic than those from the International Monetary Fund and the private sector.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099410204122333916/IDU059a788530925704a0b08f7e0c3e8b9e9d753
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10406
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39714
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers; 10406
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectGDP GROWTH FORECAST
dc.subjectFORECAST ERROR
dc.subjectOPTIMISM
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectDATA TRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectSTATISTICAL CAPACITY
dc.titleData Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errorsen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleData Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors
okr.date.disclosure2023-04-12
okr.date.lastmodified2023-04-12T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099410204122333916/IDU059a788530925704a0b08f7e0c3e8b9e9d753
okr.guid099410204122333916
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-59a78853-9257-4a0b-8f7e-c3e8b9e9d753
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10406
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10406
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34040113
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34040113
okr.identifier.reportWPS10406
okr.import.id464
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099410204122333916/pdf/IDU059a788530925704a0b08f7e0c3e8b9e9d753.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.unitOffice of the Chief Economist (MNACE)
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Thumbnail Image
Name:
IDU059a788530925704a0b08f7e0c3e8b9e9d753.pdf
Size:
903.53 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
IDU059a788530925704a0b08f7e0c3e8b9e9d753.txt
Size:
198.12 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Policy Research Working Papers