Publication: A Deeper Dive into the Relationship between Economic Development and Migration
Loading...
Files
171 downloads
31 downloads
Date
2023-02
ISSN
Published
2023-02
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This descriptive paper provides a nuanced perspective on the relationship between development and migration, extending the non-parametric analysis in Clemens (2020). A few stylized patterns of migration emerge as countries develop. First, the migration response to development differs by the types of origin and destination countries. As low-income countries develop, their migration to high-income destinations increases slowly but steadily, whereas migration to other low-income or neighboring countries decreases at early levels of development. As middle-income countries develop, their migration to high-income countries increases steadily and plateaus once they reach sufficiently high levels of income. Second, the composition of migrants changes as countries develop. In particular, migrants to high-income destination countries become more educated. Third, the emigration response from middle-income countries is muted for countries with larger populations, particularly toward high-income destinations. These patterns suggest a strong role multiple transformations—such as increasing incomes, increased global integration, a demographic transition, increased human capital, and domestic structural change—play in changing migration patterns as countries develop. The paper explores these migration patterns in light of these transformations.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Shrestha, Maheshwor. 2023. A Deeper Dive into the Relationship between Economic Development and Migration. Policy Research Working Papers;10295. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39410 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Do Bilateral Labor Agreements Increase Migration? Global Evidence from 1960 to 2020(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-17)This paper estimates the impact of bilateral labor arrangements on migration between two countries. It uses comprehensive data on bilateral migration and bilateral labor agreements across all country pairs for each decade from 1960 to 2020, and employs an empirical specification with a rich set of fixed effects. In the preferred and most stringent specification, the findings show that signing a bilateral labor agreement increases migration from an origin country to a destination country by 76 percent (0.57 log points) in the decade of signing. The effect persists for up to three decades. The impacts are higher for corridors without a pre-existing regular flow and for destinations in the Gulf Cooperation Council. In contrast, the effect is virtually absent for origin countries in Africa, driven by countries with weak government effectiveness. The estimates imply that bilateral labor agreements can lead to substantial welfare gains: low- and lower-middle-income countries can earn an additional US$120 million annually from a bilateral labor agreement. If countries in Sub-Saharan Africa were to experience similar impacts, the welfare gain from a single BLA could be as high as US$51 million per year for these origin countries.Publication Returns to Low-Skilled International Migration(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-02)Many economists believe that the returns to migration are high. However, credible experimental estimates of the benefits of migration are rare, particularly for low-skilled international migrants and their families. This paper studies a natural experiment in Bangladesh, where low-skilled male migrant workers to Malaysia were selected via a large-scale lottery program. This study tracked the households of lottery applicants and surveyed 3,512 lottery winners and losers. Five years after the lottery, 76 percent of the winners had migrated internationally compared with only 19 percent of the lottery losers. Using the lottery outcome as an instrument, the paper finds that the government intermediated migration increased the incomes of migrants by over 200 percent and their household per capita consumption by 22 percent. Furthermore, low-skilled international migration leads to large improvements in a wide array of household socioeconomic outcomes, including female involvement in key household decisions. Such large gains arise, at least in part, due to lower costs of government intermediation.Publication The Impact of Large-Scale Migration on Poverty, Expenditures, and Labor Market Outcomes in Nepal(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-10)This paper studies the impact of migration on poverty, expenditures, and labor market outcomes in Nepal. Between 2001 and 2011, the share of male working age population abroad more than doubled, mostly due to young men leaving to work in Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries. The paper studies the impact using instrumental variables as well as difference-in-difference methods. The findings show that increases in migration to Gulf-Malaysia explain 40 percent of the decline in poverty between 2001 and 2011. The estimates of the marginal propensity of consumption show that a $1 increase in remittance income increases consumption by $0.5, with the largest share going to expenditures on food. The paper also finds that migration increases school enrollment of children, particularly of girls. Furthermore, the findings show that large-scale migration in villages improves labor market outcomes for households without a migrant. An increase in village migration rates of 10 percentage points increases wages by 25 percent, and labor force participation by 4 percentage points. The participation effects are driven by increases in female participation in non-farm sectors, and increased male participation in agriculture. The wage effects are driven by higher agricultural wages for all, and higher non-farm wages for females.Publication Relationships between Economic Growth and Population Health in Low and Middle Income Countries(2008)From 1960 to the present, many low and middle income countries have experienced significant economic growth and unprecedented improvements in population health. We examine the complex relationship between economic growth and population health, including the economic and health impacts of malaria, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, malnutrition, reproductive health issues, and the associated intervention policies. We also examine the impact of several pertinent economic policies on population health, including microfinance, the TRIPS agreement, and UNIT AID, an international organization for purchasing drugs for use against AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. In addition we examine the effects of globalization on population health and economic growth. The evidence indicates that investment in improved population health is a reasonable macroeconomic policy tool for economic growth in low and middle income countries because improved health status has a positive impact on economic performance, and diminished health status has a negative impact on economic performance. Furthermore, variations in the rates of diffusion of disease control technologies have been a major cause of the variations in population health and economic growth between countries. Since 1960, low and middle income countries have been much more successful in closing the life expectancy gap than the economic development gap with high income OECD countries. Finally, while some progress has been made, achieving the infant and childhood mortality Millennium Development Goals will require a substantial investment in the increased diffusion of existing disease control knowledge and technology. Increased income per capita alone will not be sufficient.Publication International Migration, Economic Development and Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan, 2007)This volume reflects the expansion of the World Bank Research Program on International Migration and Development into new substantive and geographic areas. It presents a new global migration database and includes studies of the determinants and impact of return and circular migration, the impact of the flow of ideas on fertility, host country policies and their impact on immigrants, and the impact of international migration and remittances on poverty and other development indicators. The studies cover countries from Latin America, North Africa, South Asia, the South Pacific, and Western Europe, and show that the impact of migration on education and health tends to benefit girls more than boys, that its impact on labor force participation tends to be stronger for women than men, that return migrants tend to do better than non-migrants, and that fertility has tended to decline in countries whose migration has been to the West and has failed to do so in countries whose migration has been to the Gulf. The purpose of the case studies is to illustrate and clarify many theoretical mechanisms and to advance understanding of the impact of different migration policies, given that introducing policy variables in econometric regressions is generally difficult. Each study in this volume aims to answer a variety of development- and policy-related questions using the most appropriate of these three methodologies. These empirical studies and analyses include exploration of some novel hypotheses; they are also new in terms of the topics selected and the regions/ countries examined
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System : A Handbook for Development Practitioners(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004)An effective state is essential to achieving socio-economic and sustainable development. With the advent of globalization, there are growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to the demands of internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness, and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are among the stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and real results have increased, there is an attendant need for enhanced results-based monitoring and evaluation of policies, programs, and projects. This handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system. These steps begin with a 'readiness assessment' and take the practitioner through the design, management, and importantly, the sustainability of such systems. The handbook describes each step in detail, the tasks needed to complete each one, and the tools available to help along the way.Publication Zimbabwe(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03-01)This report presents an assessment of Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector disaster risk and management capacity. The findings indicate that Zimbabwe is highly exposed to agricultural risks and has limited capacity to manage risk at various levels. The report shows that disaster-related shocks along Zimbabwe’s agricultural supply chains directly translate to volatility in agricultural GDP. Such shocks have a substantial impact on economic growth, food security, and fiscal balance. When catastrophic disasters occur, the economy absorbs the shocks, without benefiting from any instruments that transfer the risk to markets and coping ability. The increasing prevalence of ‘shock recovery-shock’ cycles impairs Zimbabwe’s ability to plan and pursue a sustainable development path. The findings presented here confirm that it is highly pertinent for Zimbabwe to strengthen the capacity to manage risk at various levels, from the smallholder farmer, to other participants along the supply chain, to consumers (who require a reliable, safe food supply), and ultimately to the government to manage natural disasters. The assessment provides the following evidence on sources of risks and plausible risk management solutions. It is our hope that the report contributes to action by the Government of Zimbabwe to adopt a proactive and integrated risk management strategy appropriate to the current structure of the agricultural sector.Publication The Power of Survey Design : A User's Guide for Managing Surveys, Interpreting Results, and Influencing Respondents(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006)The vast majority of data used for economic research, analysis, and policy design comes from surveys-surveys of households, firms, schools, hospitals, and market participants, and, the accuracy of the estimate will depend on how well the survey is done. This innovative book is both a 'how-to' go about carrying out high-quality surveys, especially in the challenging environment of developing countries, and a 'user's guide' for anyone who uses statistical data. Reading this book will provide data users with a wealth of insight into what kinds of problems, or biases to look for in different data sources, based on the underlying survey approaches that were used to generate the data. In that sense the book is an invaluable 'skeptics guide to data'. Yet, the broad storyline of the book is something that should be absorbed by statistical data users. The book will teach and show how difficult it often is to obtain reliable estimates of important social and economic facts, and, therefore encourages you to approach all estimates with sensible caution.Publication World Development Report 2019(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019)Work is constantly reshaped by technological progress. New ways of production are adopted, markets expand, and societies evolve. But some changes provoke more attention than others, in part due to the vast uncertainty involved in making predictions about the future. The 2019 World Development Report will study how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today. Technological progress disrupts existing systems. A new social contract is needed to smooth the transition and guard against rising inequality. Significant investments in human capital throughout a person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers are to stay competitive against machines they need to train or retool existing skills. A social protection system that includes a minimum basic level of protection for workers and citizens can complement new forms of employment. Improved private sector policies to encourage startup activity and competition can help countries compete in the digital age. Governments also need to ensure that firms pay their fair share of taxes, in part to fund this new social contract. The 2019 World Development Report presents an analysis of these issues based upon the available evidence.Publication Supporting Youth at Risk(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)The World Bank has produced this policy Toolkit in response to a growing demand from our government clients and partners for advice on how to create and implement effective policies for at-risk youth. The author has highlighted 22 policies (six core policies, nine promising policies, and seven general policies) that have been effective in addressing the following five key risk areas for young people around the world: (i) youth unemployment, underemployment, and lack of formal sector employment; (ii) early school leaving; (iii) risky sexual behavior leading to early childbearing and HIV/AIDS; (iv) crime and violence; and (v) substance abuse. The objective of this Toolkit is to serve as a practical guide for policy makers in middle-income countries as well as professionals working within the area of youth development on how to develop and implement an effective policy portfolio to foster healthy and positive youth development.