Publication: A Deeper Dive into the Relationship between Economic Development and Migration
Loading...
Files
180 downloads
33 downloads
Date
2023-02
ISSN
Published
2023-02
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This descriptive paper provides a nuanced perspective on the relationship between development and migration, extending the non-parametric analysis in Clemens (2020). A few stylized patterns of migration emerge as countries develop. First, the migration response to development differs by the types of origin and destination countries. As low-income countries develop, their migration to high-income destinations increases slowly but steadily, whereas migration to other low-income or neighboring countries decreases at early levels of development. As middle-income countries develop, their migration to high-income countries increases steadily and plateaus once they reach sufficiently high levels of income. Second, the composition of migrants changes as countries develop. In particular, migrants to high-income destination countries become more educated. Third, the emigration response from middle-income countries is muted for countries with larger populations, particularly toward high-income destinations. These patterns suggest a strong role multiple transformations—such as increasing incomes, increased global integration, a demographic transition, increased human capital, and domestic structural change—play in changing migration patterns as countries develop. The paper explores these migration patterns in light of these transformations.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Shrestha, Maheshwor. 2023. A Deeper Dive into the Relationship between Economic Development and Migration. Policy Research Working Papers;10295. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39410 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Do Bilateral Labor Agreements Increase Migration? Global Evidence from 1960 to 2020(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-17)This paper estimates the impact of bilateral labor arrangements on migration between two countries. It uses comprehensive data on bilateral migration and bilateral labor agreements across all country pairs for each decade from 1960 to 2020, and employs an empirical specification with a rich set of fixed effects. In the preferred and most stringent specification, the findings show that signing a bilateral labor agreement increases migration from an origin country to a destination country by 76 percent (0.57 log points) in the decade of signing. The effect persists for up to three decades. The impacts are higher for corridors without a pre-existing regular flow and for destinations in the Gulf Cooperation Council. In contrast, the effect is virtually absent for origin countries in Africa, driven by countries with weak government effectiveness. The estimates imply that bilateral labor agreements can lead to substantial welfare gains: low- and lower-middle-income countries can earn an additional US$120 million annually from a bilateral labor agreement. If countries in Sub-Saharan Africa were to experience similar impacts, the welfare gain from a single BLA could be as high as US$51 million per year for these origin countries.Publication Returns to Low-Skilled International Migration(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-02)Many economists believe that the returns to migration are high. However, credible experimental estimates of the benefits of migration are rare, particularly for low-skilled international migrants and their families. This paper studies a natural experiment in Bangladesh, where low-skilled male migrant workers to Malaysia were selected via a large-scale lottery program. This study tracked the households of lottery applicants and surveyed 3,512 lottery winners and losers. Five years after the lottery, 76 percent of the winners had migrated internationally compared with only 19 percent of the lottery losers. Using the lottery outcome as an instrument, the paper finds that the government intermediated migration increased the incomes of migrants by over 200 percent and their household per capita consumption by 22 percent. Furthermore, low-skilled international migration leads to large improvements in a wide array of household socioeconomic outcomes, including female involvement in key household decisions. Such large gains arise, at least in part, due to lower costs of government intermediation.Publication The Impact of Large-Scale Migration on Poverty, Expenditures, and Labor Market Outcomes in Nepal(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-10)This paper studies the impact of migration on poverty, expenditures, and labor market outcomes in Nepal. Between 2001 and 2011, the share of male working age population abroad more than doubled, mostly due to young men leaving to work in Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries. The paper studies the impact using instrumental variables as well as difference-in-difference methods. The findings show that increases in migration to Gulf-Malaysia explain 40 percent of the decline in poverty between 2001 and 2011. The estimates of the marginal propensity of consumption show that a $1 increase in remittance income increases consumption by $0.5, with the largest share going to expenditures on food. The paper also finds that migration increases school enrollment of children, particularly of girls. Furthermore, the findings show that large-scale migration in villages improves labor market outcomes for households without a migrant. An increase in village migration rates of 10 percentage points increases wages by 25 percent, and labor force participation by 4 percentage points. The participation effects are driven by increases in female participation in non-farm sectors, and increased male participation in agriculture. The wage effects are driven by higher agricultural wages for all, and higher non-farm wages for females.Publication Relationships between Economic Growth and Population Health in Low and Middle Income Countries(2008)From 1960 to the present, many low and middle income countries have experienced significant economic growth and unprecedented improvements in population health. We examine the complex relationship between economic growth and population health, including the economic and health impacts of malaria, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, malnutrition, reproductive health issues, and the associated intervention policies. We also examine the impact of several pertinent economic policies on population health, including microfinance, the TRIPS agreement, and UNIT AID, an international organization for purchasing drugs for use against AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. In addition we examine the effects of globalization on population health and economic growth. The evidence indicates that investment in improved population health is a reasonable macroeconomic policy tool for economic growth in low and middle income countries because improved health status has a positive impact on economic performance, and diminished health status has a negative impact on economic performance. Furthermore, variations in the rates of diffusion of disease control technologies have been a major cause of the variations in population health and economic growth between countries. Since 1960, low and middle income countries have been much more successful in closing the life expectancy gap than the economic development gap with high income OECD countries. Finally, while some progress has been made, achieving the infant and childhood mortality Millennium Development Goals will require a substantial investment in the increased diffusion of existing disease control knowledge and technology. Increased income per capita alone will not be sufficient.Publication International Migration, Economic Development and Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan, 2007)This volume reflects the expansion of the World Bank Research Program on International Migration and Development into new substantive and geographic areas. It presents a new global migration database and includes studies of the determinants and impact of return and circular migration, the impact of the flow of ideas on fertility, host country policies and their impact on immigrants, and the impact of international migration and remittances on poverty and other development indicators. The studies cover countries from Latin America, North Africa, South Asia, the South Pacific, and Western Europe, and show that the impact of migration on education and health tends to benefit girls more than boys, that its impact on labor force participation tends to be stronger for women than men, that return migrants tend to do better than non-migrants, and that fertility has tended to decline in countries whose migration has been to the West and has failed to do so in countries whose migration has been to the Gulf. The purpose of the case studies is to illustrate and clarify many theoretical mechanisms and to advance understanding of the impact of different migration policies, given that introducing policy variables in econometric regressions is generally difficult. Each study in this volume aims to answer a variety of development- and policy-related questions using the most appropriate of these three methodologies. These empirical studies and analyses include exploration of some novel hypotheses; they are also new in terms of the topics selected and the regions/ countries examined
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication World Development Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-01)Middle-income countries are in a race against time. Many of them have done well since the 1990s to escape low-income levels and eradicate extreme poverty, leading to the perception that the last three decades have been great for development. But the ambition of the more than 100 economies with incomes per capita between US$1,100 and US$14,000 is to reach high-income status within the next generation. When assessed against this goal, their record is discouraging. Since the 1970s, income per capita in the median middle-income country has stagnated at less than a tenth of the US level. With aging populations, growing protectionism, and escalating pressures to speed up the energy transition, today’s middle-income economies face ever more daunting odds. To become advanced economies despite the growing headwinds, they will have to make miracles. Drawing on the development experience and advances in economic analysis since the 1950s, World Development Report 2024 identifies pathways for developing economies to avoid the “middle-income trap.” It points to the need for not one but two transitions for those at the middle-income level: the first from investment to infusion and the second from infusion to innovation. Governments in lower-middle-income countries must drop the habit of repeating the same investment-driven strategies and work instead to infuse modern technologies and successful business processes from around the world into their economies. This requires reshaping large swaths of those economies into globally competitive suppliers of goods and services. Upper-middle-income countries that have mastered infusion can accelerate the shift to innovation—not just borrowing ideas from the global frontiers of technology but also beginning to push the frontiers outward. This requires restructuring enterprise, work, and energy use once again, with an even greater emphasis on economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability. Neither transition is automatic. The handful of economies that made speedy transitions from middle- to high-income status have encouraged enterprise by disciplining powerful incumbents, developed talent by rewarding merit, and capitalized on crises to alter policies and institutions that no longer suit the purposes they were once designed to serve. Today’s middle-income countries will have to do the same.