Publication:
Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Stress and Impact Mitigation Potential

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (538.05 KB)
280 downloads
Published
2010
ISSN
Date
2012-06-26
Editor(s)
Abstract
Food production is strongly water-limited in many regions, reflecting the fact that under dry conditions the amount of water in the soil is not sufficient to sustain optimal plant growth. This paper provides a geographically explicit quantification of a) the current (1971-2000 average) blue and green water consumption in global agriculture; b) the current and possible future (2041-2070 average) water limitations to crop production; and c) the potential to mitigate this limitation through rainwater harvesting and vapor shift management strategies.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Gerten, Dieter; Rost, Stefanie. 2010. Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Stress and Impact Mitigation Potential. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9064 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    The Inter-Linkages between Rapid Growth in Livestock Production, Climate Change, and the Impacts on Water Resources, Land Use, and Deforestation
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010) Thornton, Philip; Herrero, Mario
    Livestock systems globally are changing rapidly in response to a variety of drivers. Human population growth, rapid urbanization, and growing incomes will lead to substantial increases in the demand for livestock products in the coming decades. Meeting this increased demand may put substantial pressure on a wide range of natural resources such as land and water. Together with climate change and increasing climate variability, these drivers of change add up to a formidable set of development challenges for developed as well as developing countries. The paper discusses the linkages between the burgeoning demand for livestock products, the subsequent growth in livestock production, and the impacts that this may have on natural resources, as well as how these may both affect, and be affected by, climate change in the coming decades.
  • Publication
    Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Yields
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010) Müller, Christoph; Bondeau, Alberte; Popp, Alexander; Waha, Katharina; Fader, Marianela
    Projections of future crop yields are highly uncertain. At global to regional scale, CO2 fertilization has the potential to generally increase crop yields on current crop land. However, it is highly unlikely that yield increases due to CO2 fertilization will be fully achieved in most regions, as long term positive effects are subject to scientific debate and increased yield levels require also adaptations in management. Differences in climate patterns are a major source of uncertainty in local and national yield projections, as especially precipitation patterns differ considerably between GCMs. The range of modeled impacts on yields therefore is only an indication on the locations susceptibility to climate change and for the necessity of adaptation measures. Future food demand will only be met if improved management and technological change will be able to increase crop yields considerably or if agricultural land is expanded. Even the most optimistic projections on future crop yields lead to decreasing food self-sufficiency ratios in most regions.
  • Publication
    Climate Change and the Economics of Targeted Mitigation in Sectors with Long-Lived Capital Stock
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010) Shalizi, Zmarak; Lecocqiu, Franck
    Mitigation investments in long-lived capital stock (LLKS) differ from other types of mitigation investments in that, once established, LLKS can lock-in a stream of emissions for extended periods of time. Moreover, historical examples from industrial countries suggest that investments in LLKS projects or networks tend to be lumpy, and tend to generate significant indirect and induced emissions besides direct emissions. Looking forward, urbanization and rapid economic growth suggest that similar decisions about LLKS are being or will soon be made in many developing countries. In their current form, carbon markets do not provide correct incentives for mitigation investments in LLKS because the constraint on carbon extends only to 2012, and does not extend to many developing countries. Targeted mitigation programs in regions and sectors in which LLKS is being built at rapid rate are thus necessary to avoid getting locked into highly carbon-intensive LLKS. Even if the carbon markets were extended (geographically, sectorally, and over time), public intervention would still be required, for three main reasons. First, to ensure that indirect and induced emissions associated with LLKS are taken into account in investor�s financial cost-benefit analysis. Second, to facilitate project or network financing to bridge the gap between carbon revenues that accrue over time as the project/network unfolds and the capital needed upfront to finance lumpy investments. Third, to internalize other non-carbon externalities (e.g., local pollution) and/or to lift barriers (e.g., lack of capacity to handle new technologies) that penalize the low-carbon alternatives relative to the high-carbon ones.
  • Publication
    Review and Quantitative Analysis of Indices of Climate Change Exposure, Adaptive Capacity, Sensitivity, and Impacts
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2010) Füssel, Hans-Martin
    Adaptation to climate change is necessary, in addition to mitigation of climate change, to avoid unacceptable impacts of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC 2007]. UNFCCC Article 4 requires developed countries to assist developing countries that are "particularly vulnerable" to climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to its adverse effects. As a result, three funds have been established under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol to provide financial resources for assessing, planning, and implementing adaptation measures in developing countries. Further adaptation funding is provided bilaterally and by multilateral institutions including the World Bank. The ambiguous and imprecise language used in the UNFCCC does not provide operational definitions for key concepts, including the identification of "particularly vulnerable" countries. This document discusses how science-based indicators of vulnerability to climate change and of adaptability can inform the prioritization of adaptation assistance from a global adaptation fund.
  • Publication
    Improving Household Survey Instruments for Understanding Agricultural Household Adaptation to Climate Change : Water Stress and Variability
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-08-29) Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit; Wang, Limin; Wijnen, Marcus
    The Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys which have collected information on many dimensions of household well-being for over 36 countries since 1980 are one of the most important data sources for informing policy making on development. The LSMS surveys have been used to assess household welfare, to understand household behavior, and to evaluate the welfare impact of various government policies. These surveys, however, lack well-designed instruments for understanding farm-level adaptation behavior to climate variability, in particular water resource variability and stress in agriculture. For the purpose of improving the quality, relevance and sustainability of smallholder agricultural data in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) project was started with a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and is implemented by the LSMS team in the Development Research Group (DECRG) of the World Bank. Under the LSMS-ISA initiative, the World Bank is supporting seven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, namely Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda, to establish systems of multi-topic, panel household surveys with a strong focus on agriculture. The surveys collect essential information to improve our understanding of economic development in Africa, particularly with regards to agriculture and linkages between farm and non-farm activities.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Argentina Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 1994
    (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994) World Bank
    World Development Report 1994, the seventeenth in this annual series, examines the link between infrastructure and development and explores ways in which developing countries can improve both the provision and the quality of infrastructure services. In recent decades, developing countries have made substantial investments in infrastructure, achieving dramatic gains for households and producers by expanding their access to services such as safe water, sanitation, electric power, telecommunications, and transport. Even more infrastructure investment and expansion are needed in order to extend the reach of services - especially to people living in rural areas and to the poor. But as this report shows, the quantity of investment cannot be the exclusive focus of policy. Improving the quality of infrastructure service also is vital. Both quantity and quality improvements are essential to modernize and diversify production, help countries compete internationally, and accommodate rapid urbanization. The report identifies the basic cause of poor past performance as inadequate institutional incentives for improving the provision of infrastructure. To promote more efficient and responsive service delivery, incentives need to be changed through commercial management, competition, and user involvement. Several trends are helping to improve the performance of infrastructure. First, innovation in technology and in the regulatory management of markets makes more diversity possible in the supply of services. Second, an evaluation of the role of government is leading to a shift from direct government provision of services to increasing private sector provision and recent experience in many countries with public-private partnerships is highlighting new ways to increase efficiency and expand services. Third, increased concern about social and environmental sustainability has heightened public interest in infrastructure design and performance. This report includes the World Development Indicators, which offer selected social and economic statistics for 132 countries.