Publication:
How Well Can Real-Time Indicators Track the Economic Impacts of a Crisis Like COVID-19?

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dc.contributor.authorTen, Gi Khan
dc.contributor.authorMerfeld, Josh
dc.contributor.authorNewhouse, David
dc.contributor.authorPape, Utz
dc.contributor.authorTafere Hirfrfot, Kibrom
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-15T01:22:26Z
dc.date.available2022-06-15T01:22:26Z
dc.date.issued2022-06
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents evidence on the extent to which a set of real-time indicators tracked changes in gross domestic product across 142 countries in 2020. The real-time indicators include Google mobility, Google search trends, food price information, nitrogen dioxide, and nighttime lights. Google mobility and staple food prices both declined sharply in March and April, followed by a rapid recovery that returned to baseline levels by July and August. Mobility and staple food prices fell less in low-income countries. Nitrogen dioxide levels show a similar pattern, with a steep fall and rapid recovery in high-income and upper-middle-income countries but not in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. In April and May, Google search terms reflecting economic distress and religiosity spiked in some regions but not others. Data on nighttime lights show no clear drop in March outside East Asia. Linear models selected using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator explain about a third of the variation in annual gross domestic product growth rates across 72 countries. In a smaller subset of higher income countries, real-time indicators explain about 40 percent of the variation in quarterly gross domestic product growth. Overall, mobility and food price data, as well as pollution data in more developed countries, appeared to be best at capturing the widespread economic disruption experienced during the summer of 2020. The results indicate that these real-time indicators can track a substantial percentage of both annual and quarterly changes in gross domestic product.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099348106132213539/IDU034674d8d08ccf04d860b5170b3cb8446db97
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10080
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/37549
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers;10080
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCOVID-19 REAL-TIME DATA
dc.subjectGDP IMPACT ESTIMATION
dc.subjectBIG DATA
dc.subjectGOOGLE SEARCH TERM ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC INDICATORS FROM BIG DATA
dc.subjectAGGREGATED DATA ANALYSIS
dc.subjectANNUAL GDP VARIATION DATA
dc.subjectGOOGLE MOBILITY DATA
dc.subjectPANDEMIC AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC COST OF COVID
dc.titleHow Well Can Real-Time Indicators Track the Economic Impacts of a Crisis Like COVID-19?en
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2022-06
okr.date.lastmodified2022-06-13T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099348106132213539/IDU034674d8d08ccf04d860b5170b3cb8446db97
okr.guid099348106132213539
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10080
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum33841204
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33841204
okr.identifier.reportWPS10080
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099348106132213539/pdf/IDU034674d8d08ccf04d860b5170b3cb8446db97.pdfen
okr.topicInformation and Communication Technologies::ICT Data and Statistics
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Corporate Data and Reporting
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.unitEFI-EAP-POV-Poverty and Equity (EEAPV)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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