Publication:
Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2023: Under the Shadow of Geopolitical Risks

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-18T18:40:24Z
dc.date.available2023-09-18T18:40:24Z
dc.date.issued2023-10-30
dc.description.abstractThe conflict in the Middle East—the latest of an extraordinary series of shocks in recent years—has heightened geopolitical risks for commodity markets, in an already uncertain global environment. Before the conflict began, voluntary oil supply withdrawals by OPEC+ producers pushed energy prices up 9 percent in the third quarter. As a result, the World Bank’s commodity price index rose 5 percent over that period and is now 45 percent above its 2015-19 average. For now, the war’s impact on commodity prices have been muted. Prices of oil and gold have risen moderately, but most other commodity prices have remained relatively stable. Nevertheless, history suggests that an escalation of the conflict represents a major risk that could lead to surging prices of oil and other commodities. A Special Focus section provides a preliminary assessment of the potential impact of the conflict on commodity prices. It finds that the effects of the conflict are likely to be limited, assuming the conflict does not widen. Under that assumption, the baseline forecast calls for commodity prices to decline slightly over the next two years. If the conflict does escalate, the assessment also includes what might happen under three risk scenarios, relying upon historical precedents to estimate the effects of small, moderate, and large disruptions to the global oil supply. The magnitude of the effects will depend on the duration and scale of the supply disruptions.
dc.identifierhttps://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099909504242541357
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/40363
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40363
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectFERTILIZER
dc.subjectINDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES
dc.subjectOIL AND GAS
dc.subjectCOAL
dc.subjectOPEC
dc.subjectOPEC+
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE PRICES
dc.subjectINDUSTRIAL METALS
dc.subjectMETAL PRICES
dc.subjectPRECIOUS METALS
dc.subjectCRITICAL MINERALS
dc.titleCommodity Markets Outlook, October 2023en
dc.title.subtitleUnder the Shadow of Geopolitical Risks
dc.typeSerial
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleCommodity Markets Outlook, October 2023
okr.date.disclosure10-30-2023
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-15T11:53:01.720758Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-22T02:26:05.281543Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Publication
okr.guid099909504242541357
okr.identifier.docmidP167313
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/40363
okr.language.supporteden
okr.topicEnergy::Energy Markets
okr.topicEnergy::Oil & Gas
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Inflation
okr.topicConflict and Development::Armed Conflict
okr.unitEFI - Prospects Group (EPGDR)
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