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Alternative Paths for Yemen up to 2030: A CGE-Based Simulation Analysis

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dc.contributor.authorLofgren, Hans
dc.contributor.authorCicowiez, Martín
dc.contributor.authorMele, Gianluca
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-08T16:51:21Z
dc.date.available2023-11-08T16:51:21Z
dc.date.issued2023-11-08
dc.description.abstractOver nine years of violence and conflict have profoundly altered the Republic of Yemen’s economy. The war has shattered the country’s already fragile socioeconomic equilibria, affecting nearly every facet of life. Since the onset of the conflict, economic diagnostics have focused on descriptions of the deteriorating macro-fiscal and poverty conditions, lack of food security, and loss of capital accumulation. However, relatively little attention has gone toward the development of a forward-looking vision for the country, rooted in Yemen’s current economic structure. This paper helps to fill this gap by presenting and analyzing a set of scenarios for Yemen’s economy up to 2030. The analysis is based on a new version of the Sustainable Development Goal Simulation model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which is applied to a new social accounting matrix (SAM) for Yemen. The new social accounting matrix has the virtue of consolidating sparce and often inconsistent Yemeni data from multiple sources (the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations system) into a coherent framework that reflects the basic structure of the economy, both at the macro and sectoral levels. The simulation analysis is built around three broad scenarios spanning 2022 through 2030. The results suggest that if the conflict subsides, governance is strengthened, and the donor community provides crucial aid, considerable progress, including reduced poverty rates and improved living conditions, can be achieved by 2030. Given Yemen’s low levels of infrastructure and human development, the potential payoffs from investments in these areas are great.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099249311082315064/IDU153cfd48111eb61427219ee1124bfd808028b
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10599
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40583
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 10599
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectCOMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING
dc.subjectFRAGILITY CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.titleAlternative Paths for Yemen up to 2030en
dc.title.subtitleA CGE-Based Simulation Analysisen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleAlternative Paths for Yemen up to 2030: A CGE-Based Simulation Analysis
okr.date.disclosure2023-11-08
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-07T09:03:56.623373Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-08T16:33:19.427809Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-09T03:13:40.677411Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-12T02:23:00.887617Z
okr.date.lastmodified2023-11-08T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099249311082315064/IDU153cfd48111eb61427219ee1124bfd808028b
okr.guid099249311082315064
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-53cfd481-1eb6-4272-9ee1-24bfd808028b
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10599
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10599
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34193411
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34193411
okr.identifier.reportWPS10599
okr.import.id2246
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099249311082315064/pdf/IDU153cfd48111eb61427219ee1124bfd808028b.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.countryYemen, Republic of
okr.sectorCentral Government (Central Agencies)
okr.themeInclusive Growth,Economic Policy,Economic Growth and Planning,Fiscal Policy
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Reduction Strategies
okr.topicSocial Development::Post Conflict Reintegration
okr.topicConflict and Development::Conflict and Fragile States
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.unitEFI-MNA-MTI-MacroFiscal (EMNMT)
okr.unitEFI-MNA-Regional Director (EMNDR)
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb5e27836-2296-4a8d-91d7-f216bf2e7025
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb5e27836-2296-4a8d-91d7-f216bf2e7025
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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