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A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks under the Belt and Road Initiative

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dc.contributor.authorBandiera, Luca
dc.contributor.authorTsiropoulos, Vasileios
dc.date.accessioned2019-06-19T16:23:59Z
dc.date.available2019-06-19T16:23:59Z
dc.date.issued2019-06
dc.description.abstractThis paper provides a framework to assess the impact of infrastructure investment expected under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the debt vulnerabilities of countries that are located on BRI transport and connectivity corridors in the absence of comprehensive and consistent information on investments and financing terms. Key assumptions relate to the amount of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt financing and its terms, the size and sectoral type of identified BRI investment, and the expected impact of growth in the medium and long term of that investment. BRI debt financing is expected significantly increase PPG debt in a number of countries. The paper provides estimates for both the medium and the long term. In the medium term, defined as the period 2019-2023, debt financing of BRI investment is expected to be fully disbursed while the full growth impact of BRI related infrastructure is not entirely realized. In this initial phase, around one-third of assessed BRI-recipient countries are estimated to face elevated debt vulnerabilities post- BRI, several of which have already high debt vulnerabilities. The impact of BRI on public debt would improve over the longer term under the assumption of a sustained negative interest rate-growth differential and in the absence of the materialization of BRI related fiscal risks. Still, debt to GDP ratio is expected to remain higher in one-third of countries (11 out of 30 with available data).en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/723671560782662349/A-Framework-to-Assess-Debt-Sustainability-and-Fiscal-Risks-under-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8891
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/31904
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 8891
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectDEBT FINANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectFISCAL RISK
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectBELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
dc.titleA Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks under the Belt and Road Initiativeen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleA Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Risks under the Belt and Road Initiative
okr.date.disclosure2019-06-18
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/723671560782662349/A-Framework-to-Assess-Debt-Sustainability-and-Fiscal-Risks-under-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative
okr.guid723671560782662349
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8891
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b086dd2914_4_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum31165984
okr.identifier.reportWPS8891
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/723671560782662349/pdf/A-Framework-to-Assess-Debt-Sustainability-and-Fiscal-Risks-under-the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryChina
okr.region.geographicalCentral Asia
okr.region.geographicalEast Asia
okr.region.geographicalMiddle East
okr.region.geographicalSouth Asia
okr.statistics.combined21151
okr.statistics.dr723671560782662349
okr.statistics.drstats18789
okr.topicPublic Sector Development::Public Sector Economics
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Strategic Debt Management
okr.topicInfrastructure Economics and Finance::Infrastructure Finance
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::External Debt
okr.topicPublic Sector Development::Public Financial Management
okr.unitMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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