Publication: Tajikistan Government Expenditures : Size, Composition and Trends

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World Bank
This policy note is part of the World Bank's Programmatic Public Expenditure Review (PER) work program for FY2012-2014. The PER consists of a series of fiscal policy notes, which aim at providing the Government of Tajikistan with recommendations to strengthen budgetary processes and analysis. This policy note, the first in the series, sets the stage for the further in-depth discussion of the issues, identified in the note, based on the analysis of trends and composition of public spending during the period 2007-2013. The note is structured as follows. Section 2 begins with a brief review of macroeconomic context to provide the background for analysis of fiscal policy during the last six years and implications for fiscal policy going forward. Section 3 presents the overall fiscal picture and highlights the fiscal risks to be addressed to sustain the recent progress in fiscal consolidation. Sections 4 and 5 dig deeper in the composition and trends of expenditures and reviews, respectively. Section 6 provides the main conclusions: 1) fiscal consolidation is on track, but further building of fiscal buffers may be needed; 2) risks to the fiscal adjustment are both domestic and external; 3) public finance management has improved, but reform is progressing slowly; 4) the size of government is small, but it is skewed toward capital outlays; 5) public spending on social sectors has increased, but the quality and access to public services must be improved; 6) revenue collection is challenged due to weaknesses in tax evasion detection and tax policy analysis; and 7) a recently revised Tax Code became effective in 2013 and is expected to enhance incentives for the private sector to grow while reducing incentives for tax evasion.
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World Bank. 2013. Tajikistan Government Expenditures : Size, Composition and Trends. Takijistan policy notes on public expenditures;policy note no. 1. © Washington, DC. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
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