Publication:
Global Expansion of Marine Protected Areas and the Redistribution of Fishing Effort

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dc.contributor.authorMcDonald, Gavin
dc.contributor.authorBone, Jennifer
dc.contributor.authorCostello, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorEnglander, Gabriel
dc.contributor.authorRaynor, Jennifer
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-10T22:25:43Z
dc.date.available2025-01-10T22:25:43Z
dc.date.issued2025-01-10
dc.description.abstractThe expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a core focus of global conservation efforts, with the “30x30” initiative to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030 serving as a prominent example of this trend. This paper examines a series of proposed MPA network expansions of various sizes and forecasts the impact that increased protection could have on global patterns of fishing effort. This is accomplished using a predictive machine learning model trained on a global dataset of satellite-based fishing vessel monitoring data, current MPA locations, and spatiotemporal environmental, geographic, political, and economic features. The model predicts future fishing effort under various MPA expansion scenarios, compared to a business-as-usual counterfactual scenario that includes no new MPAs. The difference between these scenarios represents the predicted change in fishing effort resulting from MPA expansion. The results show that, regardless of the MPA network's objective or size, fishing effort would decrease inside the MPAs, though by much less than 100%. Moreover, this reduction in fishing effort within MPAs does not simply shift outside—fishing effort outside MPAs also declines. The overall magnitude of the predicted decrease in global fishing effort principally depends on where networks are placed in relation to existing fishing effort. MPA expansion will lead to a global redistribution of fishing effort, which should be considered in network design, implementation, and impact evaluation.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099847001102541330/IDU1e881b6e119d1e144571a4e912dcf303ac8e5
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-11030
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/42659
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 11030
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectMARINE PROTECTED AREAS
dc.subjectFISHERIES ECONOMICS
dc.subjectFISHER BEHAVIOR
dc.subjectPREDICTIVE MACHINE LEARNING
dc.titleGlobal Expansion of Marine Protected Areas and the Redistribution of Fishing Efforten
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://reproducibility.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/276 Link to reproducibility package
okr.crossref.titleGlobal Expansion of Marine Protected Areas and the Redistribution of Fishing Effort
okr.date.disclosure2025-01-10
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-14T11:55:43.949319Z
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-15T02:22:23.746279Z
okr.date.lastmodified2025-01-10T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099847001102541330/IDU1e881b6e119d1e144571a4e912dcf303ac8e5
okr.guid099847001102541330
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-e881b6e1-9d1e-4457-a4e9-2dcf303ac8e5
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-11030
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34444977
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34444977
okr.identifier.reportWPS11030
okr.import.id6285
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099847001102541330/pdf/IDU1e881b6e119d1e144571a4e912dcf303ac8e5.pdfen
okr.region.geographicalWorld
okr.topicAgriculture::Fisheries & Aquaculture
okr.topicEnvironment::Environmental Economics & Policies
okr.topicEnvironment::Coastal and Marine Environment
okr.topicEnvironment::Natural Resources Management
okr.unitDEC-Sustainability & Infrastruct (DECSI)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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