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Beyond Aggregates: A Sector-Specific Framework for Long-Term Growth Modeling

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dc.contributor.authorJooste, Charl
dc.contributor.authorTercioglu, Remzi Baris
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-21T20:23:45Z
dc.date.available2025-05-21T20:23:45Z
dc.date.issued2025-05-21
dc.description.abstractThis paper develops a bottom-up, sector-specific approach to modeling potential output that overcomes limitations of traditional top-down estimates for long-term projections and policy analysis. The model disaggregates total-factor productivity (TFP) growth into within-sector productivity effects and between-sector reallocations. Such endogenous between effects capture structural transformation, notably the shift from low-productivity sectors like agriculture to higher-productivity industrial and service sectors—a key driver of growth in developing countries. At the heart of the framework, wedges in sectoral factor prices, substitution elasticities, and productivity differentials describe the contribution of between-effects to aggregate productivity. Although the approach here can be applied to any macro-structural model, its benefits are illustrated by introducing it into the World Bank’s semi-structural models for Ghana and the Kyrgyz Republic to showcase its potential to enhance the analysis of long-run growth dynamics through structural change.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099736405192525645
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-11127
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/43226
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 11127
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectECONOMIC MODELING
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.titleBeyond Aggregatesen
dc.title.subtitleA Sector-Specific Framework for Long-Term Growth Modelingen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2025-05-21
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-23T02:16:53.199164Z
okr.date.lastmodified2025-05-21T18:06:26Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099736405192525645
okr.guid099736405192525645
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-6c9b6ee5-ec76-4da2-bf94-3a382d4a4b42
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-11127
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum40014280
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum40014280
okr.identifier.reportWPS11127
okr.import.id7427
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttps://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099736405192525645/pdf/IDU-6c9b6ee5-ec76-4da2-bf94-3a382d4a4b42.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America and Caribbean
okr.region.countryColombia
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Modeling and Statistics
okr.topicEnergy::Energy and Economic Development
okr.unitEMFDR - EFI-MTI-Macro/Fiscal-Global Dir.
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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