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Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law: Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis

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dc.contributor.authorMerotto, Dino
dc.contributor.authorHayati, Fayavar
dc.contributor.authorStephan, David
dc.contributor.authorBataille, William
dc.date.accessioned2015-11-04T22:55:54Z
dc.date.available2015-11-04T22:55:54Z
dc.date.issued2015-10
dc.description.abstractThis paper proposes a new measure of public expenditure force that policy makers and budget analysts should track in detail over time in routine fiscal monitoring. The paper suggests that adopting the measure will not only warn policy makers of possible impending fiscal pressures, but will help them to differentiate between those budgetary pressures that are temporary and those that may require reforms. The main utility of the expenditure force measure will be in country fiscal analysis. Measuring force across the entire budget allows practitioners to monitor and decompose the micro drivers of public spending pressure, watch out for rapidly expanding spending lines, and identify priorities for reform before these pressures lead to macro fiscal problems. Yet by its construct, spending force is internationally comparable, and independent of expenditure levels or spending types. This could allow global monitoring comparisons and global research into the drivers of public spending force across particular types of country characteristics and economic conditions. In time, and as more data become available, researchers can use the force measure to compare and contrast the dynamics of expenditure types across countries. For example the measure can be used to explore what gives some spending types an initial impulse; whether underlying factors cause different public spending categories to grow faster than average, or to accelerate over time; and what successful countries have done to manage rising force without damaging public services. Since force seems to be a decent predictor of fiscal episodes, it is suggested that “speed limits” for spending might be a feasible component of fiscal rules.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25107995/dismal-science-accounting-newton’s-second-law-identifying-force-rigidity-public-expenditure-analysis
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7431
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/22853
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7431
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectEARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subjectDEFICIT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectSUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE CRISES
dc.subjectNET LENDING
dc.subjectDEBT‐RELIEF
dc.subjectAGGREGATE SPENDING
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE LEVELS
dc.subjectHEALTH EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectPUBLIC SECTOR
dc.subjectMONEY SUPPLY
dc.subjectFINANCIAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectPROGRAMS
dc.subjectDEBT MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectSERVICES
dc.subjectPUBLIC SERVICES
dc.subjectREVENUES
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectEDUCATION EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFISCAL EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectPUBLIC BUDGETS
dc.subjectINVESTMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFISCAL ANALYSIS
dc.subjectSOCIAL BENEFITS
dc.subjectTRANSFERS BETWEEN LEVELS
dc.subjectSOCIAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectEARLY WARNING INDICATOR
dc.subjectMUNICIPALITIES
dc.subjectBUDGET BILL
dc.subjectCOMPOSITION OF PUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectBUDGET
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING TRENDS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectFISCAL RULES
dc.subjectADMINISTRATIVE CLASSIFICATION
dc.subjectBUDGET SYSTEMS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL LOANS
dc.subjectAGGREGATE EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT FINANCE STATISTICS
dc.subjectEARLY WARNING SYSTEM
dc.subjectFISCAL RIGIDITIES
dc.subjectSOCIAL INSURANCE
dc.subjectAUTOMATIC STABILIZERS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE ANALYSIS
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectOPERATING EXPENSES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISES
dc.subjectREVENUE GROWTH
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCE
dc.subjectCAPITAL TRANSFERS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFISCAL RELATIONS
dc.subjectTAX BREAKS
dc.subjectGROWTH OF EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL REFORMS
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECURITY
dc.subjectSOCIAL EQUITY
dc.subjectCAPITAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE ITEM
dc.subjectTAX REVENUES
dc.subjectSERVICE DELIVERY
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICE
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE DATA
dc.subjectEDUCATION SPENDING
dc.subjectTAXES
dc.subjectNATIONAL STATISTICS
dc.subjectENTITLEMENTS
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectMEDIUM-TERM PLAN
dc.subjectNATIONAL SECURITY
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION OF EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectPUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS
dc.subjectINTEREST PAYMENTS
dc.subjectBASELINE ESTIMATES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BUDGET
dc.subjectBUDGET EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectFISCAL FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectMARKET FAILURES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFISCAL ECONOMISTS
dc.subjectCAPITAL EXPENDITURE GROWTH
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT FINANCE
dc.subjectMERIT GOOD
dc.subjectBUDGETS
dc.subjectPUBLIC ENTERPRISES
dc.subjectPUBLIC BUDGET
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectOUTPUT MEASURES
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectTAX EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION
dc.subjectINTERNAL LOANS
dc.subjectFISCAL PROBLEMS
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectDISCRETIONARY FISCAL STIMULUS
dc.subjectMONETARY TERMS
dc.subjectTAX REVENUE
dc.subjectCAPITAL SPENDING
dc.subjectFISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectCAPITAL GRANTS
dc.subjectFISCAL ADJUSTMENT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectCIVIL DEFENSE
dc.subjectFISCAL PRESSURES
dc.subjectCLASSIFICATION OF EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectNATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFISCAL REFORMS
dc.subjectTOTAL SPENDING
dc.subjectMINISTRY OF FINANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subjectPUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL ASSETS
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCE
dc.subjectTAX POLICY
dc.subjectCHANGE IN REVENUE
dc.subjectCAPITAL EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectPENSION FUND
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectDEBT SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICING
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE GROWTH
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectROAD TRANSPORT
dc.subjectOUTCOMES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectCIVIL SERVICE
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL EQUITY
dc.subjectHEALTH SERVICES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE PROGRAMS
dc.subjectOPERATING EXPENDITURES
dc.titleDismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Lawen
dc.title.subtitleIdentifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysisen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleDismal Science, Accounting and Newton's Second Law: Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis
okr.date.disclosure2015-10-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T12:01:44.623053Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25107995/dismal-science-accounting-newton’s-second-law-identifying-force-rigidity-public-expenditure-analysis
okr.guid738741467998792031
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7431
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b084469649_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum25107995
okr.identifier.reportWPS7431
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/10/01/090224b0831189fb/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Dismal0science0expenditure0analysis.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryMoldova
okr.topicSubnational Economic Development
okr.topicPublic Sector Development
okr.topicAccess to Finance
okr.topicDebt Markets
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development
okr.unitMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice Group
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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