Publication:
Riding the Demographic Wave Pensions and Retirement Income in an Aging World: The State of Social Protection Report 2025 Background Paper #5

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (2.17 MB)
336 downloads
English Text (165.24 KB)
21 downloads
Date
2025-04-09
ISSN
Published
2025-04-09
Editor(s)
Abstract
This report examines the state of pension and social insurance systems globally, focusing on old-age income protection. It analyzes expenditure, coverage, adequacy of benefits, and sustainability of both contributory and non-contributory pension schemes. The report highlights the impact of population aging on pension systems, emphasizing the need for reforms to ensure fiscal sustainability and adequate benefits. It also explores the challenges of extending coverage to informal sector workers and the importance of gender equity in pension provision. The report concludes with recommendations for adapting pension systems to evolving economic and demographic realities, emphasizing the need for inclusive and sustainable solutions.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Hartley, Gonzalo Reyes; Abels, Miglena. 2025. Riding the Demographic Wave Pensions and Retirement Income in an Aging World: The State of Social Protection Report 2025 Background Paper #5. Social Protection Discusson Paper; No. 2512, March 2025. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/43042 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-07) Gentilini,Ugo; Almenfi,Mohamed Bubaker Alsafi; Iyengar,TMM; Okamura,Yuko; Downes,John Austin; Dale,Pamela; Weber,Michael; Newhouse,David Locke; Rodriguez Alas,Claudia P; Kamran,Mareeha; Mujica Canas,Ingrid Veronica; Fontenez,Maria Belen; Asieduah,Sandra; Mahboobani Martinez,Vikesh Ramesh; Reyes Hartley,Gonzalo Javier; Demarco,Gustavo C.; Abels,Miglena; Zafar,Usama; Urteaga,Emilio Raul; Valleriani,Giorgia; Muhindo,Jimmy Vulembera; Aziz,Sheraz
    As of January 2022, a total of 3,856 social protection and labor measures were planned or implemented by 223 economies. This constitutes a net increase of 523 measures, or 15.6 percent since the last update in May 2021. While noteworthy, such increase is the lowest among net additions observed over previous semesters. In fact, the global pace of measures’ introduction over January 2020-January 2022 has been slowing down. This report focuses on the real-time review of country measures in terms of social protection and job responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19).
  • Publication
    The Inverting Pyramid : Pension Systems Facing Demographic Challenges in Europe and Central Asia
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-02-12) Schwarz, Anita M.; Arias, Omar S.; Zviniene, Asta; Rudolph, Heinz P.; Eckardt, Sebastian; Koettl, Johannes; Immervoll, Herwig; Abels, Miglena; Arias, Omar
    Pension systems in Europe and Central Asia are facing unprecedented demographic change. While many of the countries in the region have undertaken reforms when the economy faces difficult times, these reforms are frequently reversed when the economy improves. The demographic challenges that the region faces require a sustained effort toward changing the pension system toward something which provides adequate and sustainable benefits. The book documents the increased generosity of pension systems in Europe from their initial inception, noting that the current expectations of the public are based on the most recent round of generosity. The book seeks to show a nontechnical audience that such generosity is neither based on customary practice nor affordable in the future. The increased generosity in the past was only possible because the demographic pyramid was expanding, but as it inverts with fewer young people and more elderly, that generosity will no longer be affordable. Returning to the pension system of the 1970’s will go a long way toward providing adequate and sustainable benefits in the future. Moving to a more sustainable system will require reforms to labor markets, improvements in savings mechanisms, and may require additional public resources. The extent to which a country can undertake reforms in labor markets, savings, and public finances can influence the extent to which its pension system will have to change, with different solutions possible for different countries. But in all cases, the changes that need to be made have to be widely discussed and publicly accepted to prevent reversals. The book hopes to stimulate widespread public discussion of the issue to help countries make sustainable choices with gradual implementation, before they face such daunting challenges that they have to undertake sudden, harsh measures.
  • Publication
    Closing the Coverage Gap : The Role of Social Pensions and Other Retirement Income Transfers
    (World Bank, 2009) Takayama, Noriyuki; Holzmann, Robert; Robalino, David A.
    The book has four specific objectives: (a) to discuss the role of retirement income transfers in the context of a strategy for expanding old- age income security and preventing poverty among the elderly; (b) to take stock of international experience with the design and implementation of these programs; (c) to identify key policy issues that need to receive attention during the design and implementation phases; and (d) to offer some preliminary policy recommendations and propose next steps. The chapter one discusses the rationale for retirement income transfers. The main justifications are the limited coverage of the mandatory pension systems (chapter two) and the risk of poverty during old age (chapter three). Chapter four then examines the rights, based approach to expansion of social security coverage based on the conventions and recommendations of the International Labor Organization (ILO). The middle part of the book deals with international experience. Chapters five, six, and seven reviews selected programs in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries, respectively, and chapters eight and nine discuss in greater depth the cases of Japan and the Republic of Korea. The five concluding chapters are concerned with policy issues as related to design. Chapter ten presents a typology of retirement income transfers and analyzes the potential economic impacts of the programs. Chapter eleven deals with financing mechanisms and the problem of allocative efficiency, given limited resources. Chapter twelve addresses two key issues related to institutional arrangements and targeting systems: Should countries consider separate programs to target the elderly poor instead of using the general social assistance system to target all poor? And, how can current proxy means-test systems be adapted to target the elderly poor? Chapter thirteen explores in more detail the links between social pensions and matching contributions in the context of a general strategy for expanding coverage. Finally, chapter fourteen provides guidelines for the design of the administrative systems needed to operationalize the various programs. The remainder of this overview summarizes the main messages from the subsequent chapters and outlines an agenda for future research and policy analysis. For clarity, it starts by presenting some definitions pertinent to the retirement income transfers discussed in the book.
  • Publication
    The Financial Crisis and Mandatory Pension Systems in Developing Countries : Short-and Medium-Term Responses for Retirement Income Systems
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-12) Dorfman, Mark; Hinz, Richard; Robalino, David
    The international financial crisis has severely affected the value of pension fund assets worldwide. The unfolding global recession will also impose pressures on public pension schemes financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, while limiting the capacity of governments to mitigate both of theses effects. Governments are reacting to these events in different ways. Some are asking whether the balance between funded defined-contribution and unfunded pension schemes should be reconsidered. A few have already taken actions to reverse prior reforms. This note discusses the potential impacts of the financial crisis on fully funded and pay-as-you-go retirement-income systems in World Bank client countries, and identifies key short-and medium-term policy responses.
  • Publication
    Adequacy of Retirement Income after Pension Reforms in Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe : Eight Country Studies
    (World Bank, 2009) Guven, Ufuk; Holzmann, Robert
    All of the former transition economies in Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe (CESE) inherited from the era of central planning traditional defined-benefit pension systems financed on a pay-as-you-go basis. Like many pay-as-you-go public pension systems elsewhere in the world, CESE pension systems were in need of reforms to address short-term fiscal imbalances and longer-term issues relating to population aging. Reforms were also needed to adjust benefit and contribution structures to meet the challenges of-as well as to take advantage of opportunities relating to the transition to a market economy, including the widespread adoption of multiplier designs with improved risk-sharing across funded and unfunded pillars. By 2006, most countries in Europe and Central Asia had introduced a voluntary private pension scheme. By 2008, 14 countries roughly half of all countries in the region had legislated mandatory private pension schemes, and all but one of those schemes (the one in Ukraine) had been introduced. These reforms shared a number of common objectives, in particular putting the systems on a sounder financial footing and better aligning them with the (very different) incentives of a market economy. This report is organized as follows. The first section discusses the motivation for reform across the eight countries included in the study against the backdrop of the regional (and global) trend toward multiplier pension arrangements. The second section summarizes the key provisions of the reformed systems in the eight countries within the World Bank's five-pillar framework for pension system design. The third section summarizes pension system performance against the two crucially important dimensions of adequacy and sustainability. The last section provides some policy recommendations for addressing gaps in reforms and taking advantage of further opportunities.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    The Container Port Performance Index 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18) World Bank
    The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-09) World Bank
    Note: Chart 1.2.B has been updated on January 18, 2024. Chart 2.2.3 B has been updated on January 14, 2024. Global growth is expected to slow further this year, reflecting the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policy to rein in inflation, restrictive credit conditions, and anemic global trade and investment. Downside risks include an escalation of the recent conflict in the Middle East, financial stress, persistent inflation, weaker-than-expected activity in China, trade fragmentation, and climate-related disasters. Against this backdrop, policy makers face enormous challenges. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), commodity exporters face the enduring challenges posed by fiscal policy procyclicality and volatility, which highlight the need for robust fiscal frameworks. Across EMDEs, previous episodes of investment growth acceleration underscore the critical importance of macroeconomic and structural policies and an enabling institutional environment in bolstering investment and long-term growth. At the global level, cooperation needs to be strengthened to provide debt relief, facilitate trade integration, tackle climate change, and alleviate food insecurity.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05) World Bank
    Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.