Publication: Analysis of Teacher Stock versus Flow in Primary Education in East Asia and the Pacific Middle-Income Countries: A Simple Model and Results from Simulation between 2020 and 2030
Loading...
Date
2023-07-10
ISSN
Published
2023-07-10
Author(s)
Tanaka, Nobuyuki
Editor(s)
Abstract
Too many children are not learning to read in the East Asia and Pacific region’s middle-income countries. In some countries in the region, such as the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and the Philippines, more than 90 percent of 10-year-olds cannot read and understand an age-appropriate text. To accelerate learning in these countries, better teaching will be needed. To improve teacher quality in the next 10 years, where should countries focus their attention? On improving the teaching skills and content knowledge of their existing stock of teachers, on recruiting and better training new teachers, or on doing both? This paper contributes to this discussion by addressing two policy questions: (i) will East Asia and Pacific’s middle-income countries need more or fewer teachers in the coming decade, and (ii) quantitatively, how important will the newly recruited teachers be (the flow) relative to the teaching workforce who have already been recruited (the stock)? To answer these questions, the paper uses a simple model that projects the required number of primary school teachers in each of the East Asia and Pacific region’s 22 middle-income countries. The model is based on several factors, such as: (i) the size of future cohorts of children, (ii) the proportion of those cohorts who end up in school, (iii) the pupil-to-teacher ratio, and (iv) teacher attrition. Two key messages emerge with an important policy implication. First, significant heterogeneity exists across the 22 countries, with seven countries projected to need fewer teachers overall in the next 10 years relative to the teacher stock in 2020, while the rest will need to expand their teacher workforce. Second, despite this heterogeneity, in every East Asia and Pacific country, teachers who are already “in the system” are expected to constitute the majority of teachers still employed in 2030. In some countries, teachers who have already been recruited will constitute more than 70 percent of those who will be in schools in 2030. The finding has an important policy implication, namely: if countries want to improve the quality of teaching in schools, their primary focus in the next 10 years should be on improving the stock, that is, the quality of their current teacher workforce (through more and better teacher professional development).
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Sondergaard, Lars M.. 2023. Analysis of Teacher Stock versus Flow in Primary Education in East Asia and the Pacific Middle-Income Countries: A Simple Model and Results from Simulation between 2020 and 2030. Policy Research Working Papers; 10479. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39963 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Citations
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Experience of Middle-Income Countries Participating in PISA 2000-2015(World Bank, Washington, DC and OECD Publishing, Paris, 2015)This report provides a systematic review and empirical evidence related to the experiences of middle-income countries and economies participating in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), 2000 to 2015. PISA is a triennial survey that aims to evaluate education systems worldwide by testing the skills and knowledge of 15-year-old students. To date, students representing more than 70 countries and economies have participated in the assessment, including 44 middle-income countries, many of which are developing countries receiving foreign aid. This report provides answers to six important questions about these middle-income countries and their experiences of participating in PISA: what is the extent of developing country participation in PISA and other international learning assessments?; why do these countries join PISA?; what are the financial, technical, and cultural challenges for their participation in PISA?; what impact has participation had on their national assessment capacity?; how have PISA results influenced their national policy discussions?; and what does PISA data tell us about education in these countries and the policies and practices that influence student performance? The findings of this report are being used by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to support its efforts to make PISA more relevant to a wider range of countries, and by the World Bank as part of its on-going dialogue with its client countries regarding participation in international large-scale assessments.Publication Skill Use, Skill Deficits, and Firm Performance in Formal Sector Enterprises(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05)Inadequacies in Tanzania's education and training systems compromise the quality of workforce skills, giving rise to skill shortages, and constraining the operations and growth of formal sector firms in the country. This study addressed these concerns using data from a unique Enterprise Skills Survey that asked Tanzanian employers about the education, training, and occupational mix of their workforce, the skill gaps in cognitive, noncognitive, and job-specific competencies affecting their operations, and the strategies they are using to overcome these skill gaps. The study investigates the consequences for firm productivity of employers' choices about their optimal skills mix, and their strategies to mitigate shortfalls in skills supply. Compared with noninnovators and firms primarily serving the domestic market, exporters and innovators face greater skill demand and suffer from skill shortages that are more likely to constrain their operations in such areas as quality assurance, use of new technology, and introducing new products and services. In analyzing firm performance and its relation to skill mix, the study found that firms with higher shares of tertiary-educated workers are more productive; it found no impact, however, from secondary education and technical vocational education and training qualifications, possibly reflecting the universally acknowledged poor quality of secondary education in Tanzania. Employers use a range of strategies to address skill deficiencies, from hiring new workers, to training current workers in-house or externally, using high-skill expatriate workers, or outsourcing professional services. Almost all were associated with higher labor productivity. The exception, employer provided in-house training, had no measurable impact on productivity.Publication Skills, Not Just Diplomas : Managing Education for Results in Eastern Europe and Central Asia(World Bank, 2012)The countries of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) are currently emerging from the deepest recession suffered by any developing region. Post-crisis conditions are very different from those of preceding years. Financial resources are more limited and more expensive, and export growth is restrained by potentially slower growth in destination countries. Restoring and sustaining growth in this context require reforms that boost competitiveness and increase labor productivity. Such reforms are all the more important given the shrinking of the working-age population in many countries of the region. This book uses a range of different data sources to argue that the skills problem in the ECA region relates more to the quality and relevance of the education provided in ECA countries than to problems of access. A central argument of the book is that ministries of education are constrained in a number of ways from effectively managing their education and training sectors. The three most important and interrelated impediments to improving quality and relevance are the lack of systematic data on key skills-related performance issues (i.e., how much students are learning and whether they are finding jobs after they graduate), the legacy of central planning, and inefficient use of resources. Lack of data on student learning and employment outcomes makes it difficult for education ministries to address the legacy of central planning, which emphasizes centralized management based on inputs. Ministries of education in the region continue to micromanage the sector using detailed norms and regulations. This input-oriented style of management leads to the inefficient use of resources and results in a rigid education sector not the type of flexible sector needed by ECA to create modern, skilled workforces. This book highlights how these constraints manifest themselves and then presents ways of overcoming them, relying on the experience of ECA countries that have successfully addressed them, together with international experience. Recommendations are presented in separate chapters for pre-university, tertiary, and adult education.Publication The Private Sector and Youth Skills and Employment Programs in Low and Middle-Income Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015)Getting youth into productive employment is an urgent policy issue for countries around the world. Many governments in low and middle-income countries are actively engaged in policies to help youth attain the skills they need to do well in work and in life, as well as to find suitable employment. The involvement of the private sector in youth skills development and employment is a complex issue because the nature of the firms and their motivations vary significantly. Multinational corporations operating in low and middle-income countries may be motivated by direct productivity or profit objectives - to secure a skilled workforce, or reliable suppliers - but also, or even primarily, by corporate social responsibility (CSR) factors. Firms that supply training or employment services will be driven by profit considerations when entering these markets and deciding what services to offer and to whom. The purpose of this paper is threefold: (1) to provide a comprehensive look at the way the private sector is involved in youth skills and employment in low- and middle-income countries, considering the broad range of program types and firm types; (2) to present and interpret the available evidence of the effectiveness of this involvement; and (3) to understand where the private sector has been most effective at promoting young people’s labor market success, and what can be done to enhance the role of the private sector to achieve this objective. The report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides background to the analysis of the private sector role in youth employment in low- and middle-income countries. In chapter three the authors characterize the private sector’s role more systematically using the youth employment inventory, a global database of interventions that are designed to integrate young people into the labor market. Chapter four reviews the evidence of effectiveness of youth interventions involving the private sector. Chapter five briefly draws together strands from the previous review, as well as from the broader literature, to gain an understanding of the institutional and other factors leading to (and in other cases preventing) successful public-private partnerships for youth employment. Chapter six summarizes the main findings of this review, and is followed by a discussion of key gaps in knowledge on the role of the private sector in different types of youth employment intervention that future research should attempt to address, and a review of the main lessons for policy and programming emerging from the study.Publication Effective Teacher Training in Low-Income Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-11-01)The Education for All (EFA) initiative depends on students being taught by suitably and sufficiently trained teachers. But time-on-task studies conducted in low-income countries show that relatively little time is being spent on instruction, including the critical teaching of reading. Teachers may be absent often and may avoid teaching when in school (Abadzi 2007). They may engage with the few students who can do the work, neglecting the rest (Llambiri 2006, Abadzi and Llambiri 2011). They may fail to use textbooks even when they exist and spend class time copying on the blackboard. The same issues affect supervisors and principals (Abadzi 2006). As a result, students may graduate or drop out illiterate. The investments in teacher training are potentially valuable, but need to be linked to results. Thus far evidence is limited. Preservice training often lasts 6-9 months compared to 3-4 years in higher-income countries and may be insufficient to remedy students' academic deficits or teach them how to teach. The poor results have disappointed governments and donors. The persistent teacher training problems worldwide make it imperative to seek new means for changing behaviors, particularly for poorly paid teachers with limited education. This must be done relatively quickly and efficiently so that teachers can impart basic skills to their students. Since feasible educational methods seem to have been exhausted, it is useful to look for solutions in the field that studies behavior. Even for better educated teachers in lower-income countries, the capacity for formulating and solving complex problems such as those presented in teaching real classrooms may be limited compared to some 'ideal' model (Feldon 2007).
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Making Devolution Work for Service Delivery in Kenya(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02)Kenya adopted a new constitution and began the process of devolution in 2010, ceding many formerly national responsibilities to new county governments. As an institutional response to longstanding grievances, this radical restructuring of the Kenyan state had three continuing main objectives: decentralizing political power, public sector functions, and public finances; ensuring a more equitable distribution of resources among regions; and promoting more accountable, participatory, and responsive government at all levels. The first elections under the new constitution were held in 2013 and led to the establishment of 47 new county governments. Each county government is made up of a county executive, headed by an elected governor, and an elected County Assembly that legislates and provides oversight. Making Devolution Work for Service Delivery in Kenya takes stock of how devolution has affected the delivery of basic services to Kenyan citizens nine years after the “devolution train” left the station. Whereas devolution was driven by political reform, the ensuing institutions and systems were expected to deliver greater socioeconomic equity through devolved service delivery. Jointly coordinated by the government of Kenya and the World Bank, the Making Devolution Work for Service Delivery (MDWSD) study is the first major assessment of Kenya’s devolution reform. The study provides key messages about what is working, what is not working, and what could work better to enhance service delivery based on currently available data. It provides an independent assessment of service delivery performance in five sectors: agriculture, education, health, urban services, and water services. This assessment includes an in-depth review of the main pillars of devolved service delivery: accountability, human resource management, intergovernmental finance, politics, and public financial management. In addition to its findings for the present, the MDWSD study provides recommendations on how Kenya can improve its performance in each of these pivotal areas in the future.Publication Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System : A Handbook for Development Practitioners(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004)An effective state is essential to achieving socio-economic and sustainable development. With the advent of globalization, there are growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to the demands of internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness, and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are among the stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and real results have increased, there is an attendant need for enhanced results-based monitoring and evaluation of policies, programs, and projects. This handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system. These steps begin with a 'readiness assessment' and take the practitioner through the design, management, and importantly, the sustainability of such systems. The handbook describes each step in detail, the tasks needed to complete each one, and the tools available to help along the way.Publication Nigeria Development Update, June 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)In 2020, Nigeria experienced its deepest recession in four decades, but growth resumed in the fourth quarter as pandemic restrictions were eased, oil prices recovered, and the authorities implemented policies to counter the economic shock. As a result, in 2020 the Nigerian economy experienced a smaller contraction (-1.8 percent) than had been projected when the pandemic began (-3.2 percent). As part of its response, the government carried out several long-delayed policy reforms, often against vocal opposition. Notably, the government (1) began to harmonize exchange rates; (2) began to eliminate gasoline subsidies; (3) started adjusting electricity tariffs to more cost-reflective levels; (4) cut nonessential spending and redirected resources to COVID-19 (coronavirus) responses at both the federal and the state levels; and (5) enhanced debt management and increased public-sector transparency, especially for oil and gas operations. By creating additional fiscal space and maximizing the impact of the government’s limited resources, these measures were critical in protecting the economy against a much deeper recession and in laying the foundation for earlier recovery. However, several critical reforms are as yet incomplete, which threatens Nigeria’s nascent recovery. In the baseline scenario, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 1.8 percent in 2021. Despite the current favorable external environment, with oil prices recovering and growth in advanced economies, reform slippages would hinder the renewed economic expansion and undermine progress toward Nigeria’s development goals. In a risk scenario, in which the government fails to sustain recent macroeconomic and structural reforms, the pace of economic recovery would slow, and GDP growth couldbe just 1.1 percent in 2021.Publication Fiscal Incidence Analysis for Kenya(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-29)Kenya has made satisfactory progress in reducing poverty and inequality in recent years. Economic growth in Kenya between 2005-06 and 2015-16 averaged around 5.3 percent, exceeding the average growth of 4.9 percent observed for Sub-Saharan Africa. This robust economic growth resulted in a reduction in poverty, whether measured by the national or international poverty line. The proportion of the population living beneath the national poverty line fell from 46.8 percent in 2005-06 to 36.1 percent in 2015-16, showing a modest improvement in the living standards of the Kenyan population. Similarly, poverty under the international poverty line of US$ 1.90 a day declined from 43.6 percent in 2005-06 to 35.6 percent in 2015-16. At this level, poverty in Kenya is below the average in sub-Saharan Africa and is amongst the lowest in the East African Community (World Bank, 2018b). However, the proportion of the population living in poverty remains comparatively high in Kenya and the rate at which growth translated into poverty reduction was lower than elsewhere. At twice the average, Kenya’s poverty rate is still high for a lower-middle income country, a group that Kenya joined only in 2015. In addition, the Kenya’s growth elasticity of poverty reduction, the percentage reduction in the poverty rate associated with a one-percent increase in mean per capita income is only 0.57, lower than in Tanzania, Ghana, or Uganda (World Bank, 2018b). This leads to the obvious question of what can be done to make economic growth more pro-poor in Kenya. This study assesses the distributional consequences of Kenya’s system of taxes and transfers, covering 60 percent of revenue and between 25 and 30 percent of government spending. The analysis of fiscal incidence and distributional consequences of Kenya’s tax and transfer system is an important input for designing pro-poor policies and potentially for influencing the rate at which economic growth translates into poverty reduction. In this study, direct taxes and transfers, indirect taxes (VAT and excise duties), as well as public health and education spending are assessed in terms of their distributional impacts. Overall, these taxes and transfers account for about 60 percent of revenue and between 25 and 30 percent of government spending.Publication Managing County Assets and Liabilities in Kenya(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Public entities around the world possess an enormous volume of assets and wealth, which includes land, buildings, historic sites, parks, and infrastructure networks, among many others. Good management of such assets is a catalyst for accelerating development and expanding services; poor asset management generates enormous losses, including lost opportunities to build wealth. Private enterprises increasingly use computerized systems to manage assets such as fleets and buildings. Many city leaders in developing countries, however, are unaware of asset management or feel they lack the time or money to undertake it. Managing County Assets and Liabilities in Kenya: Postdevolution Challenges and Responses can help them begin or maintain their efforts to manage assets sustainably. This book helps readers understand the basic concept of asset management; explains systems, tools, and procedures; and provides models and guidance. Kenya has achieved much since its 2013 devolution of governance and management to new counties. However, counties, which are the local governments in Kenya, are still working toward establishing systems and procedures, creating asset and liability registers, verifying and valuing assets, using assets strategically, and resolving disputes surrounding inherited assets and liabilities. This book provides glimpses into the Kenyan devolution process and asset transfer challenges, draws lessons, and explores options relevant to both Kenya and other nations. Ample studies discuss various aspects of municipal asset management, such as managing infrastructure, fixed assets, water services, building properties, roads, or fleets. This book is unique among asset management studies in three ways: it discusses all sorts of assets and liabilities and their interlinkages, exemplifies the close connection between financial results and asset management of municipalities, and reveals the political economy challenges in transferring assets and liabilities across public entities.