Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting: Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh

doi:10.1596/29825

Publication:
Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting: Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh

dc.contributor.author	World Bank
dc.date.accessioned	2018-05-15T18:38:49Z
dc.date.available	2018-05-15T18:38:49Z
dc.date.issued	2018
dc.description.abstract	Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Owing to its low-lying topography, dense river network, location, and climate, it is exposed to a range of water and climate-related hazards. Tropical cyclones are among the most severe of these hazards. A key focus for improving disaster preparedness and early warning systems in Bangladesh is improved lead times for tropical cyclone forecasting including the quality and skill of the forecast. At present, the lead time for tropical cyclone forecast used by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), the main government agency responsible for issuing forecasts for tropical cyclone and storm surges, is three days. If lead times of 10 to 15 days with relatively high accuracy are possible, as the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) suggests, why is it not being done in Bangladesh and what can be done to improve the forecast lead time? This question motivated the writing of this paper. Critical to extending the lead times for forecasting is a better understanding of the factors that limit increasing the lead time of current forecasts. This book is arranged as follows: Chapter 1 gives description of the background and rationale for the report; Chapter 2 describes current global operational practices for forecasting tropical cyclones and storm surges, including practices at other national agencies; Chapter 3 assesses the extent to which Bangladesh uses international and regional operational practices and the technical and governance issues that limit their use; and Chapter 4 provides a summary and recommendations.	en
dc.identifier	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/582551525867171411/Improving-lead-time-for-tropical-cyclone-forecasting-review-of-operational-practices-and-implications-for-Bangladesh
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/29825
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/29825
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject	CYCLONE
dc.subject	WEATHER FORECASTING
dc.subject	DISASTER RISK
dc.subject	STORM SURGE
dc.title	Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting	en
dc.title.subtitle	Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh	en
dc.type	Report	en
dc.type	Rapport	fr
dc.type	Informe	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.crossref.title	Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
okr.date.disclosure	2018-05-09
okr.doctype	Economic & Sector Work::Other Environmental Study
okr.doctype	Economic & Sector Work
okr.docurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/582551525867171411/Improving-lead-time-for-tropical-cyclone-forecasting-review-of-operational-practices-and-implications-for-Bangladesh
okr.guid	582551525867171411
okr.identifier.doi	10.1596/29825
okr.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.1596/29825
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum	090224b085a6307e_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum	29877984
okr.identifier.report	126068
okr.imported	true	en
okr.language.supported	en
okr.pdfurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/582551525867171411/pdf/126068-WP-P160830-PUBLIC-improving-lead-time-tropical-Cyclones-WBG.pdf	en
okr.region.administrative	South Asia
okr.region.country	Bangladesh
okr.theme	Environment and natural resource management :: Climate change
okr.theme	Social protection and risk management :: Natural disaster management
okr.topic	Environment::Natural Disasters
okr.topic	Science and Technology Development::Climate and Meteorology
okr.unit	DRM/Climate SAR (GSU18)