dc.contributor.author	World Bank
dc.date.issued	2025-04-29
dc.description.abstract	Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index in 2025, as a marked slowdown in global oil consumption coincides with expanding supply. The anticipated commodity price softening is broad-based, however, with more than half of the commodities in the forecast set to decrease this year, many by more than 10 percent. The latest shocks to hit commodity markets extend a so far tumultuous decade, marked by the highest level of commodity price volatility in at least half a century. Between 2020 and 2024, commodity price swings were frequent and sharp, with knock-on consequences for economic activity and inflation. In the next two years, commodity prices are expected to put downward pressure on global inflation. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in global growth—driven by worsening trade relations or a prolonged tightening of financial conditions—could further depress commodity demand, especially for industrial products. In addition, if OPEC+ fully unwinds its voluntary supply cuts, oil production will far exceed projected consumption. There are also important upside risks to commodity prices—for instance, if geopolitical tensions worsen, threatening oil and gas supplies, or if extreme weather events lead to agricultural and energy price spikes.	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/43036
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/43036
dc.language.iso	en_US
dc.publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject	COMMODITY PRICES
dc.subject	ENERGY PRICES
dc.subject	INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES
dc.subject	OIL AND GAS
dc.subject	OPEC
dc.subject	OPEC+
dc.subject	AGRICULTURE PRICES
dc.subject	METAL PRICES
dc.subject	CRITICAL MINERALS
dc.subject	PRECIOUS METALS
dc.title	Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2025	en
dc.type	Serial
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.date.disclosure	2025-04-29
okr.date.doiregistration	2025-04-30T04:25:34.675367Z
okr.identifier.docmid	P167313
okr.region.geographical	World
okr.topic	Energy::Oil & Gas
okr.topic	Energy::Energy Markets
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Commodities
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.unit	Prospects Group (DECPG)

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Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2025