South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Tajikistan Country Case Study

doi:10.1596/34119

Publication:
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Tajikistan Country Case Study

dc.contributor.author	World Bank
dc.date.accessioned	2020-07-15T20:50:42Z
dc.date.available	2020-07-15T20:50:42Z
dc.date.issued	2020-06
dc.description.abstract	Tajikistan is the poorest country in the region despite strong growth for nearly two decades; sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but nearly a third of its population, of around 9 million, live in poverty. Its growth of 6-7 percent per year since 2000 was fueled by growth in consumption and public investment, the latter driven mainly by rising remittances and export receipts from aluminum and cotton. Private investment and growth of other exports remained weak, and the fiscal situation, fragile for most of that period. Accordingly, the National Development Strategy 2030 (NDS) seeks to address those weaknesses. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability.	en
dc.identifier	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/938531593500864017/South-Caucasus-and-Central-Asia-The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Tajikistan-Country-Case-Study
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/34119
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/34119
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject	BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
dc.subject	TRADE LOGISTICS
dc.subject	TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.title	South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative	en
dc.title.subtitle	Tajikistan Country Case Study	en
dc.type	Report	en
dc.type	Rapport	fr
dc.type	Informe	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.crossref.title	South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative
okr.date.disclosure	2020-06-30
okr.doctype	Economic & Sector Work
okr.doctype	Economic & Sector Work::Other Infrastructure Study
okr.docurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/938531593500864017/South-Caucasus-and-Central-Asia-The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Tajikistan-Country-Case-Study
okr.guid	938531593500864017
okr.identifier.doi	10.1596/34119
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum	090224b0882be7b3_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum	32190821
okr.identifier.report	150335
okr.imported	true	en
okr.language.supported	en
okr.pdfurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/938531593500864017/pdf/South-Caucasus-and-Central-Asia-The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Tajikistan-Country-Case-Study.pdf	en
okr.region.administrative	Europe and Central Asia
okr.region.country	China
okr.region.country	Tajikistan
okr.topic	Transport::Transport and Trade Logistics
okr.topic	Transport::Roads & Highways
okr.topic	Transport::Railways Transport
okr.unit	Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice

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