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Lives and Livelihoods: Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

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dc.contributor.authorDecerf, Benoit
dc.contributor.authorFerreira, Francisco H. G.
dc.contributor.authorMahler, Daniel G.
dc.contributor.authorSterck, Olivier
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-18T14:58:08Z
dc.date.available2020-06-18T14:58:08Z
dc.date.issued2020-06
dc.description.abstractThis paper evaluates the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two different scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-off between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, estimates of LYs and PYs are compared across countries for different scenarios. Three main findings arise. First, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) has generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, the dominance of poverty over mortality is reversed in a counterfactual "herd immunity" scenario: without any policy intervention, LYs tend to be greater than PYs, and the overall welfare losses are greater.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/655511592232527722/Lives-and-Livelihoods-Estimates-of-the-Global-Mortality-and-Poverty-Effects-of-the-Covid-19-Pandemic
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9277
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/33938
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9277
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectWELFARE
dc.subjectPOVERTY
dc.subjectMORTALITY
dc.subjectPANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectLIVELIHOODS
dc.titleLives and Livelihoodsen
dc.title.subtitleEstimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemicen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35680 Journal article
okr.crossref.titleLives and Livelihoods: Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic
okr.date.disclosure2020-06-15
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/655511592232527722/Lives-and-Livelihoods-Estimates-of-the-Global-Mortality-and-Poverty-Effects-of-the-Covid-19-Pandemic
okr.guid655511592232527722
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9277
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b087a5a747_3_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum32132111
okr.identifier.reportWPS9277
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/655511592232527722/pdf/Lives-and-Livelihoods-Estimates-of-the-Global-Mortality-and-Poverty-Effects-of-the-Covid-19-Pandemic.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined3764
okr.statistics.dr655511592232527722
okr.statistics.drstats3090
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Health and Poverty
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Population & Development
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Public Health Promotion
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Living Standards
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group, Development Economics
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2aa2ddfe-f591-50b2-961d-c4991bd3b876
relation.isAuthorOfPublication3360909a-fdcc-580a-9567-25d105453578
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery3360909a-fdcc-580a-9567-25d105453578
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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