Ruta, Michele

Person:
Ruta, Michele

Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practice

Fields of Specialization

International Economics, International Integration, Regional Integration

External Links

Personal website

Departments

Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practice

Last updated: December 23, 2024

Biography

Michele Ruta is Lead Economist in the Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practice of the World Bank Group, where he leads the work program on regional integration. He had previous appointments as Economic Advisor to the Senior Director of the Trade & Competitiveness Global Practice (2015-2018), Senior Economist at the IMF (2013-2015), Counsellor at the WTO (2007-2013) and Marie Curie Fellow at the European University Institute (2004-2007). He holds a PhD in economics from Columbia University (2004) and an undergraduate degree from the University of Rome “La Sapienza” (1998). Michele’s research interests are in international economics, and particularly on issues concerning international/regional integration. He has published in refereed journals such as the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Public Economics, and the Journal of the European Economic Association. He was a lead author of the World Trade Report of the WTO between 2008 and 2013, and contributed to many policy reports, including the Global Economic Prospects of the World Bank, and the World Economic Outlook of the IMF. His work has been cited, among others, in the Economist, Financial Times, Guardian, Le Monde.

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Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 47

Geopolitics and the World Trading System
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23) Mattoo, Aaditya; Ruta, Michele; Staiger, Robert W.
Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. The paper shows that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.
Trade and Infrastructure Integration in Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-11-28) Fontagné, Lionel; Lebrand, Mathilde; Murray, Siobhan; Santoni, Gianluca; Ruta, Michele
Economic integration of the African continent rests on two pillars: the ratification of an ambitious trade agreement and massive investment in transportation infrastructure. Leveraging a newly created city-level database on African exporters’ transport times, transport route optimization and general equilibrium modeling of international trade, the paper quantifies the impact of greater trade and transport integration in Africa. A pan-African agreement, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area, would increase African countries’ exports by an average of 3.4 percent and increase gross domestic product by 0.6 percent. Complementing trade integration by reducing transportation time on roads, ports and border posts would increase exports by 11.5 percent and increase gross domestic product by 2 percent. Major transport investments are necessary to reap the full benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Deep Trade Agreements: Anchoring Global Value Chains in Latin America and the Caribbean
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-07-12) Rocha, Nadia; Ruta, Michele
International economic integration offers unexploited opportunities to Latin America and the Caribbean. This report studies how the region’s countries can leverage trade agreements to promote their economies’ participation in global value chains (GVCs).The gaps between potential and actual GVC integration follow from the region’s Economic fundamentals, such as geography, market size, institutions, and factor endowments. But policy choices matter as well. The report, based on new data and evidence, shows that trade agreements can drive policy reforms and help the region overcome some of its disadvantageous fundamentals. The report makes specific policy recommendations to guide Latin American and Caribbean countries in leveraging trade agreements to pursue greater international integration and economic growth. Four main findings emerge from the analysis: (i) Latin America and the Caribbean’s poor international integration and limited participation in GVCs have contributed to its low economic growth over the past decade; (ii) Although the region’s countries increasingly participate in preferential trade agreements (PTAs), there are gaps in the content of these agreements; (iii) Deep trade agreements present an avenue to promote trade and boost GVC integration and upgrading, thus contributing to improved economic performance; (iv) Four areas of deep integration - trade facilitation, regulatory cooperation, services, and state support - are priorities to improve these countries’ GVC participation and upgrading.
Deep Trade Agreements and Heterogeneous Firms Exports
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-01) Neri--Lainé, Matteo; Orefice, Gianluca; Ruta, Michele
This paper studies the effect of regional trade agreements on firms’ exports. Using detailed information on the content of trade agreements and firm-level exports for 31 developing countries between 2000 and 2020, the analysis shows that the depth of trade agreements matters for the export performance of firms. Moving from shallow to deep trade agreements boosts firms’ exports, on average, by 3.6 percent. In line with models of trade with heterogeneous firms, the trade impact of deep trade agreements depends on firm’s characteristics. The impact is stronger for large firms and firms involved in global value chains and is negative for small firms. Robustness tests and an Instrumental Variable strategy confirm the causal interpretation of the results. These heterogeneous impacts on firms’ exports imply a selection effect of deep trade agreements with significant welfare consequences.
Containing Chinese State-Owned Enterprises? The Role of Deep Trade Agreements
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04) Lefebvre, Kevin; Rocha, Nadia; Ruta, Michele
Regional trade agreements increasingly include provisions that regulate state-owned enterprises. This paper combines new information on the content of “deep” regional trade agreements and data on Chinese firm-level exports during 2000-11 to analyze the spillover effect of rules on state-owned enterprises on the intensive and extensive margins of Chinese state-owned enterprises’ trade. Rather than containing state capitalism, regional trade agreements regulating state-owned enterprises signed by Chinese trading partners with third countries increase exports and entry of Chinese state-owned enterprises as they gain a competitive edge in regulated markets. This spillover effect is robust to several extensions and is even stronger for agreements that include rules on subsidies and competition policy. This finding points to the need for commonly agreed multilateral rules to regulate state owned enterprises.
Handbook of Deep Trade Agreements
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-07-08) Rocha, Nadia; Ruta, Michele; Mattoo, Aaditya; Mattoo, Aaditya; Rocha, Nadia; Ruta, Michele
Deep trade agreements (DTAs) cover not just trade but additional policy areas, such as the international flows of investment and labor, and the protection of intellectual property rights and the environment. Their goal is integration beyond trade, or deep integration. DTA rules influence how countries transact, invest, work, and, ultimately, develop. The rules and commitments in DTAs should be informed by evidence and shaped by development priorities rather than international power or domestic politics. An impediment to this goal is that data and analysis on trade agreements have not captured the new dimensions of integration. Little effort has been made to identify the content and consequences of DTAs. This Handbook takes a step towards filling this gap in our understanding of international economic law and policy. It presents detailed data and analysis on the content of the policy areas most frequently covered in DTAs, focusing on the stated objectives, substantive commitments, and other aspects such as transparency, procedures, and enforcement. Each chapter, authored by lead experts in their respective fields, explains in detail the methodology used to collect the information and provides a first look at the evidence by policy area.
Trade Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis: Evidence from a New Data Set
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12) Evenett, Simon; Fiorini, Matteo; Fritz, Johannes; Hoekman, Bernard; Lukaszuk, Piotr; Rocha, Nadia; Ruta, Michele; Santi, Filippo; Shingal, Anirudh
This paper presents new high-frequency data on trade policy changes targeting medical and food products since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, documenting how countries used trade policy instruments in response to the health crisis on a week-by-week basis. The data set reveals a rapid increase in trade policy activism in February and March 2020 in tandem with the rise in COVID-19 cases, but also uncovers extensive heterogeneity across countries in their use of trade policy and the types of measures used. Some countries acted to restrict exports and facilitate imports, others targeted only one of these margins, and many did not use trade policy at all. The observed heterogeneity suggests numerous research questions on the drivers of trade policy responses to COVID-19, the effects of these measures on trade and prices of critical products, and the role of trade agreements in influencing trade activism.
The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements on Georgia's Exporters: A Firm-Level Analysis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-09) Neri-Laine, Matteo; Orefice, Gianluca; Ruta, Michele
This paper assesses the trade impact of regional trade agreements signed by Georgia. Using information from the World Bank’s Deep Trade Agreements database and the Exporters’ Dynamics Database for Georgia for 2000–20, the paper tests the effect of regional trade agreements on the performance of Georgian exporters. The results show that the depth of regional trade agreements has a positive effect on the exports of firms, and the more so if trade agreements include legally enforceable provisions. Interestingly, the effect of regional trade agreements is not homogeneous across exporters with different characteristics. While large exporters and firms participating in global value chains benefit from deep trade agreements, small firms are negatively affected. Deep trade agreements have a positive effect on the probability of entry into the export market for large firms and firms in global value chains.
Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06) Freund, Caroline; Mulabdic, Alen; Ruta, Michele; Mattoo, Aaditya
To understand the longer term consequences of natural disasters for global value chains, this paper examines trade in the automobile and electronic sectors after the 2011 earthquake in Japan. Contrary to widespread expectations, the analysis shows that the shock did not lead to reshoring, nearshoring, or diversification; and trade in intermediate products was disrupted less than trade in final goods. Imports did shift to new suppliers, especially where dependence on Japan was greater. But production relocated to developing countries rather than to other top exporters. Despite important differences, the observed pattern of switching may be relevant to disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Effectiveness of Environmental Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03) Abman, Ryan; Lundberg, Clark; Ruta, Michele
Trade liberalization can spur environmental degradation. Concerns over these adverse impacts have led to a debate over the need for environmental provisions in regional trade agreements (RTAs), however the effectiveness of such provisions is unknown. This paper provides new causal evidence that environmental provisions are effective in limiting deforestation following the entry into force of RTAs. It exploits high-resolution, satellite-derived estimates of deforestation and identify the content of RTAs using a new dataset with detailed information on individual provisions. Accounting for the potential endogeneity of environmental provisions in RTAs, the paper finds that the inclusion of specific provisions aimed at protecting forests and/or biodiversity entirely offsets the net increases in forest loss observed in similar RTAs without such provisions. The inclusion of these provisions limits agricultural land expansion, but does not completely offset increases in total agricultural production. The effects are concentrated in tropical, developing countries with greater biodiversity.