Medvedev, Denis

Person:
Medvedev, Denis

Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation

Fields of Specialization

International trade, Jobs, Inequality, Poverty, Private Sector Development, Financial Sector Development

Departments

Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation

Last updated: January 31, 2023

Biography

Denis Medvedev manages the Firms, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation unit of the Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation Global Practice at the World Bank Group. The unit is a team of microeconomists and development practitioners working to provide cutting-edge, evidence-based advice to developing countries around the globe on policies to promote innovation, entrepreneurship, firm upgrading, technology adoption, and productivity. It accomplishes this by carrying out original research, contributing to lending and technical assistance engagements led by the World Bank Group regional units, and collaborating with multilateral institutions as well as bilateral partners and donors. Denis’ own research has recently focused on firm growth and productivity, while his earlier work explored economic growth, income distribution dynamics, international trade, and the Sustainable Development Goals. In his previous assignments at the World Bank, he was responsible for policy dialogue, lending operations, and analytical work across a range of countries in Africa, East and South Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America & the Caribbean, as well as developing forward-looking scenarios for the global economy in the Development Prospects group. He is an author of more than 30 peer-reviewed journal articles, books and book chapters, and World Bank reports. He holds a Ph.D. from the American University.

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Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 23

Unmasking the Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses: Firm Level Evidence from Across the World
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10) Apedo-Amah, Marie Christine; Avdiu, Besart; Cirera, Xavier; Cruz, Marcio; Davies, Elwyn; Grover, Arti; Iacovone, Leonardo; Kilinc, Umut; Medvedev, Denis; Maduko, Franklin Okechukwu; Poupakis, Stavros; Torres, Jesica; Tran, Trang Thu
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses worldwide with a focus on developing countries. The results are based on a novel data set collected by the World Bank Group and several partner institutions in 51 countries covering more than 100,000 businesses. The paper provides several stylized facts. First, the COVID-19 shock has been severe and widespread across firms, with persistent negative impact on sales. Second, the employment adjustment has operated mostly along the intensive margin (that is leave of absence and reduction in hours), with a small share of firms laying off workers. Third, smaller firms are disproportionately facing greater financial constraints. Fourth, firms are increasingly relying on digital solutions as a response to the shock. Fifth, there is great uncertainty about the future, especially among firms that have experienced a larger drop in sales, which is associated with job losses. These findings provide a better understanding of the magnitude and distribution of the shock, the main channels affecting businesses, and how firms are adjusting. The paper concludes by discussing some avenues for future research.
Firm Recovery during COVID-19: Six Stylized Facts
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10) Pereira-Lopez, Mariana; Cirera, Xavier; Reyes, Santiago; Cruz, Marcio; Grover, Arti; Iacovone, Leonardo; Medvedev, Denis
Building on prior work that documented the impact of COVID-19 on firms in developing countries using the first wave of Business Pulse Surveys, this paper presents a new set of stylized facts on firm recovery, covering 65,000 observations in 38 countries. This paper suggests that: One, since the outset of the pandemic, some aspects of business performance such as sales show signs of partial recovery. Two, other aspects remain challenging, including persistently high uncertainty and financial fragility. Three, recovery is heterogeneous across firms and more sensitive to firm-level attributes such as size, sector, and initial productivity than to country-level differences in the severity of the initial shock. In particular, larger and more productive firms are recovering faster, with implications for competition policy and allocative efficiency. Four, the decline in jobs has been steeper during the initial shock than the expansion in employment during recovery, raising the risk of a "jobless" recovery pattern. Five, the diffusion of digital technology and product innovation accelerated during the pandemic but did so unevenly, further widening gaps between small and large firms. Six, businesses now have more access to policy support, but poorer countries continue to lag behind and appropriate targeting of firms remains a challenge.
High-Growth Firms: Facts, Fiction, and Policy Options for Emerging Economies
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019) Grover Goswami, Arti; Medvedev, Denis; Olafsen, Ellen
Remarkably, a small fraction of firms account for most of the job and output creation in high-income and developing countries alike. Does this imply that the path to enabling more economic dynamism lies in selectively targeting high-potential firms? Or would pursuing broad-based reforms that minimize distortions be more effective? Inspired by these questions, this book presents new evidence on the incidence, characteristics, and drivers of high-growth firms based on in-depth studies of firm dynamics in Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, Tunisia, and Turkey. Its findings reveal that high-growth firms are not only powerful engines of job and output growth but also create positive spillovers for other businesses along the value chain. At the same time, the book debunks several myths about policies to support firm dynamism that focus on outward characteristics, such as firm size, sector, location, or past performance. Its findings show that most firms struggle to sustain rapid rates of expansion and that the relationship between high growth and productivity is often weak. Consequently, the book calls for a shift toward policies that improve the quality of firm growth by supporting innovation, managerial skills, and firms’ ability to leverage global linkages and agglomeration. To help policy makers structure policies that support firm growth, the book proposes a new ABC framework of growth entrepreneurship: improving Allocative efficiency, encouraging Business-tobusiness spillovers, and strengthening firm Capabilities. This book is the third volume of the World Bank Productivity Project, which seeks to bring frontier thinking on the measurement and determinants of productivity to global policy makers.
Policies to Support Businesses through the COVID-19 Shock: A Firm-Level Perspective
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01) Lopez Cordova, Jose Ernesto; Cirera, Xavier; Cruz, Marcio; Okechukwu Maduko, Franklin; Davies, Elwyn; Grover, Arti; Reyes Ortega, Santiago; Iacovone, Leonardo; Torres, Jesica; Medvedev, Denis; Nayyar, Gaurav
Relying on a novel dataset covering more than 120,000 firms in 60 countries, this paper con-tributes to the debate about D policies to support businesses through the COVID-19 pandemic. While governments around the world have implemented a wide range of policy support measures, evidence on the reach of these policies, the alignment of measures with firm needs, and their targeting and effectiveness remains scarce. This paper provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of these issues, focusing primarily on the developing economies. It shows that policy reach has been limited, especially for the more vulnerable firms and countries, and identifies mismatches between policies provided and policies most sought. It also provides some indicative evidence regarding mistargeting of policies and their effectiveness in addressing liquidity constraints and preventing layoffs. This assessment provides some early guidance to policymakers on tailoring their COVID-19 business support packages and points to new directions in data and research efforts needed to guide policy responses to the current pandemic and future crises.
South Asia's Turn: Policies to Boost Competitiveness and Create the Next Export Powerhouse
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-06) Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys; Medvedev, Denis; Palmade, Vincent
South Asia has a huge need to create more and better jobs for a growing population – especially in the manufacturing industries where it is underperforming as compared to East Asia. The report examines three critical and relatively understudied drivers of competitiveness: Economies of agglomeration: firms and workers accrue benefits from locating close together in cities or clusters through urbanization and localization. Participation in global value chains: stronger competitive pressures weed out least productive firms while others improve by gaining access to new knowledge and better inputs. Firm capabilities: in order to operate close to what would be considered optimum efficiency levels given the prevailing factor prices and thus employ South Asia’s abundant labor. The report entails four case studies of critical industries: apparel (based on the “Stitches to Riches” World Bank report), automotive, electronics and agribusiness. The report also draws on relevant good practices from around the world. The report shows that South Asia has great untapped competitiveness potential (including in all four industries studied). Realizing this potential would require the governments in the region to pursue second generation trade policy reforms for firms to better contribute to and benefit from global value chains (e.g. facilitating imports for exporters), to facilitate the development of industrial clusters in secondary cities (cheaper and less congested than the metros) as well as to deploy policies to improve the capabilities of firms, especially SMEs.
Advanced-Country Policies and Emerging-Market Currencies: The Impact of U.S. Tapering on India’s Rupee
(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-03) Ikeda, Yuki; Medvedev, Denis; Rama, Martin
The global financial crisis and its aftermath have triggered extraordinary policy responses in advanced countries. The impacts of these policy responses—from asset price bubbles to currency depreciations—have often been felt in the developing world. As tapering talk evolves into actual withdrawal of quantitative easing in the United States, and as the Euro Zone launches its own quantitative easing program, there are good reasons to be concerned about the financial stability of emerging economies. India's experience with U.S. tapering offers insights into what to expect. This paper estimates the contribution of external and domestic factors to short-term fluctuations in the value of the Indian rupee between 2004 and 2014, using a rich dynamic model that controls for a large number of exchange rate determinants. The paper finds that a global surprise factor, more than domestic vulnerabilities, was the main driver of the large rupee depreciation in summer 2013. With the surprise factor gone, further normalization of U.S. monetary policy is unlikely to have significant effects on the rupee exchange rate.
Informality and Profitability: Evidence from a New Firm Survey in Ecuador
(Taylor and Francis, 2015-08-13) Oviedo, Ana María; Medvedev, Denis
This article estimates the impact of informality on profits using a new survey administered to 1,200 firms with less than 50 employees in four cities in Ecuador. The article proposes a novel definition of informality which explicitly recognises that most firms comply with some regulations but not others. Accounting for firm selection and controlling for a large set of firm, owner and location characteristics, the article finds that more formal firms tend to be more profitable and have higher output per worker. This impact operates, inter alia, through improved access to credit and higher sales through issuance of tax receipts.
Informality and Profitability : Evidence from a New Firm Survey in Ecuador
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Oviedo, Ana Maria; Medvedev, Denis
This paper estimates the impact of informality on firm profits using a new firm-level survey designed specifically for this study. The survey was administered to about 1,200 firms with 50 employees or less in Ecuador's two largest cities, Quito and Guayaquil, plus two main centers of economic activity near the northern and southern borders. The paper's results confirm that the extent of firms' compliance with a set of regulatory requirements is linked to the perceived costs and benefits of informality, such as the probability of detection by the authorities and the likelihood of being fined. Nonetheless, taking into account the non-random placement of firms along the formality-informality spectrum and controlling for a large set of firm, owner, and location characteristics, the paper finds that more formal firms tend to be more profitable and have higher output per worker. This impact operates, inter alia, through more formal firms' ability to obtain improved access to credit and achieve higher sales by issuing receipts to clients.
Distributional Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion
(2011-10-01) De Hoyos, Rafael E.; Bussolo, Maurizio; Medvedev, Denis
This paper uses a dynamic macro-micro framework to evaluate the potential distributional effects of the expansion of the Panama Canal. The results show that large macroeconomic effects are only likely during the operations phase (2014 and onward), and income gains are likely to be concentrated at the top of the income distribution. The additional foreign exchange inflows during the construction and operations phases result in the loss of competitiveness of non-Canal sectors (Dutch disease) and in higher domestic prices, which hurt the poorest consumers. In addition, the construction and operation activities increase demand for more educated non-farm formal workers. Although these changes encourage additional labor movement out of agriculture and from the informal to the formal sector, much of the impact is manifested in growing wage disparities and widening income inequality. Using the additional revenues of the Canal expansion in a targeted cash transfer program such as "Red de Oportunidades", the Government of Panama could offset the adverse distributional effects and eradicate extreme poverty.
Internal Migration in Ghana : Determinants and Welfare Impacts
(2010-04-01) Ackah, Charles; Medvedev, Denis
Using a recently compiled dataset on migration and remittances in Ghana, this paper estimates the determinants of an individual s likelihood to be an internal migrant and the relationship between internal migration and welfare. The analysis finds that the likelihood to migrate is determined by a combination of individual (pull) and community-level (push) characteristics. The probability of migration is higher for younger and more educated individuals, but communities with higher levels of literacy, higher rates of subsidized medical care, and better access to water and sanitation are less likely to produce migrants. The analysis finds that households with migrants tend to be better off than similar households without migrants, even after controlling for the fact that households with migrants are a non-random sample of Ghanaians. However, the positive relationship is only true for households with at least one migrant in urban areas; the welfare of households with migrants exclusively in rural areas is no different from households without any migrants.