Iimi, Atsushi

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Iimi, Atsushi

Transport Global Practice

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Iimi, Atsushi

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Industrial organization, Development economics

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Transport Global Practice

Last updated:August 19, 2025

Biography

Atsushi Iimi is a Senior Economist in the Transport Global Practice of the World Bank where he specializes in development economics related to the Bank’s transport operations in Africa. He joined the World Bank in 2006 after earning a Ph.D. in economics from Brown University. Before joining the Bank, he also worked at IMF and JICA/OEFC, Japan. His research interests include spatial analysis, rural accessibility, evaluation of transport and energy projects, growth and public expenditure. His research on these topics has been published in scholarly journals, such as the Review of Industrial Economics, Journal of Urban Economics, Journal of Applied Economics, the Development Economies, and IMF Staff Papers.

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Now showing1 - 10 of 68

Job Accessibility, Commute Time, and Efficiency of Urban Transport: Evidence from Dar es Salaam
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-19) Iimi, Atsushi
Many African countries are experiencing rapid urbanization. However, job creation has not kept pace, resulting in persistently high urban unemployment rates. Based on basic job search theory, the paper revisits the relationship between employment and transport connectivity at various levels, using data from Dar es Salaam, one of Africa’s fastest-growing developing cities. It shows that those who commute longer distances tend to earn higher wages. Therefore, enhancing the efficiency of urban transport systems is crucial. The paper also identifies variations in the relationship between wages and commute times across different transport modes. Commuters using motorized transportation, particularly private cars and taxis, generally earn more than those using nonmotorized transport. Hence, there is a potential risk associated with the overreliance on private transport modes. The gender wage gap persists in Dar es Salaam, but the positive effect of commuting on wages is greater for women, which can contribute to reducing the gap.
Climate Vulnerability and Job Accessibility: Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-11) Iimi, Atsushi
Many developing cities are facing rapid population growth and extreme climate events. This paper examines the link between job accessibility and climate vulnerability, using data from Antananarivo, Madagascar, which frequently experiences flooding. As in other countries, the analysis finds that men’s commutes are longer than women’s, who tend to walk to work or use public transport. Even after controlling for observables and the potential endogeneity bias associated with commute time, the findings show that climate vulnerability negatively impacts wages, as people avoid commuting long to work due to anticipated potential climate risks. Building climate resilience into urban transport is therefore essential. As predicted by theory, the evidence also shows that the value of commuting is positive, and walking is disadvantageous. Motorized commuting yields higher returns, which could lead to overuse of private cars and taxis, posing decarbonization challenges.
Estimating Road Freight Transport Costs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Using Large Shipping Data
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-08-02) Iimi, Atsushi
The recent global crises, such as the COVID-19 crisis, remind us of the importance of efficient transportation and logistics. Notably, however, even before the crises, some regions were already experiencing a gradual increase in freight costs, with more and more empty trucks observed. The paper recasts light on the question of how road freight costs are determined using large, unique shipping data from Eastern European and Central Asian countries. It finds that economies of scale are significant in both freight weight or load factor and distance. The elasticity with respect to freight weight is particularly high at about 0.3 to 1.0 in absolute terms. Thus, to contain trucking costs, it is important to maximize the load factor through freight consolidation at origins and destinations. The elasticity with respect to distance is relatively modest at 0.04 to 0.16 in absolute terms but still statistically significant, indicating that distance may not necessarily be a constraint on trade and regional integration. Trucking costs also decrease with driving speed, a proxy for efficiency of movements or road conditions. The elasticity is significant for food products (−0.03) and other consumer goods (−0.11). Finally, the paper finds that border crossing adds 3–4 percent to freight costs.
Estimating the Demand for Informal Public Transport: Evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-04) Iimi, Atsushi
Informal public transport has been growing rapidly in many developing countries. Because urban infrastructure development tends to lag rapid population growth, informal public transport often meets the growing gap between demand and supply in urban mobility. Despite the rich literature primarily focused on formal transport modes, the informal transport sector is relatively unknown. This paper analyzes the demand behavior in the “informal” minibus sector in Antananarivo, Madagascar, taking advantage of a recent user survey of thousands of people. It finds that the demand for informal public transport is generally inelastic. Essentially, people have no other choice. While the time elasticity is estimated at −0.02 to −0.05, the price elasticity is −0.05 to −0.06 for short-distance travelers, who may have alternative choices, such as motorcycle taxi or walking. Unlike formal public transportation, the demand also increases with income. Regardless of income level, everyone uses minibuses. The estimated demand functions indicate that people prefer safety and more flexibility in transit. The paper shows that combining these improvements and fare adjustments, the informal transport sector can contribute to increasing people’s mobility and reducing traffic congestion in the city.
Agglomeration Economies and Transport Connectivity Revisited: A Regional Perspective Based on Evidence from the Caucasus and Central Asian Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-08-02) Iimi, Atsushi
Transport connectivity is an important determinant of agglomeration economies and urbanization. However, measuring its impacts is a complex task when causality is considered. An important empirical challenge comes from potential endogeneity of infrastructure placement. To deal with the endogeneity problem, first, the paper constructs detailed georeferenced connectivity measurements based on micro shipping data collected over 10 years. Then, the system generalized method of moments regression is applied. Using unique data from the Caucasus and Central Asian countries, the paper estimates the impact of transport connectivity on agglomeration economies. It finds that agglomeration economies are significant and persistent in the region. Thus, the existing firm clusters are likely to continue growing. However, a constraint is also found. Large cities exhibit congestion diseconomies. Finally, the paper shows that the improvement of transport connectivity, especially local market accessibility, has a significant effect on agglomeration. By contrast, no clear evidence to support the impact of improved regional connectivity on agglomeration is observed yet. To take full advantage of agglomeration economies at the regional level, further efforts may be needed, for instance, toward increasing efficiency in transportation and logistics, improving the freight load, and/or reducing the time and costs of border crossing, which add to overall transport costs and times.
Estimating the Impacts of Transport Corridor Development in Kazakhstan: Application of Dynamic Panel Data Models to Firm Registry Data
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09) Iimi, Atsushi
Large-scale transport infrastructure investment can facilitate structural transformation by changing firm behavior. Although its impact is evident over the long term, an important empirical challenge is potential endogeneity of infrastructure placement. By using the dynamic panel data regression, the paper examines the impacts of massive road corridor investment under the Nurly Zhol program in Kazakhstan. The paper takes advantage of detailed micro shipping data to capture historical changes in transport connectivity over the past 10 years. While the average travel speed has slightly increased, transport costs have been nearly halved. The estimated translog cost functions indicate that local market accessibility is the most important factor to boost firm productivity. The elasticity was 0.24 in absolute terms. Inventory is found to be a major cost factor for firms. It is found that a 10-percent improvement in accessibility to large cities, such as Astana and Almaty, could allow firms to reduce their inventory by 8.7 percent. The market accessibility is found to foster firm agglomerations, but agglomeration economies do not seem to translate into higher firm productivity. This is possibly because the Kazakh economy still lacks effective forward or backward linkages across industries.
Estimating the Impact of Improved Roads on Access to Health Care: Evidence from Mozambique
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07) Iimi, Atsushi
The paper recasts light on the linkage between transport infrastructure and human capital development. Health care access is an important challenge in many developing countries. In particular in remote rural areas, it is not easy to access good quality health care services. Among others, transport connectivity is often an important constraint. The paper estimates the impact of transport connectivity on access to health care services in Mozambique, especially focused on people’s decision about whether they visit and ask for advice at a health facility if they have a fever. This is a critical question in Mozambique where malaria is still a life-threatening disease. About three-quarters of the total population does not have access to health facilities by walking. The paper shows that transport connectivity to health facilities is a significant determinant of people’s health care access. Owning transport means, such as a bike or a motorcycle, is also instrumental to promoting people’s access to health care. The rich are more likely to benefit from health care services, suggesting a need for other complementary policies, such as a health care subsidy and insurance, to improve health care accessibility.
Firm Productivity and Locational Choice: Evidence from Mozambique
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07) Iimi, Atsushi
Transport infrastructure is an important driving force for economic growth. Africa has been lagging behind in the global manufacturing market. Among others, infrastructure is often an important constraint. The paper reexamines the impacts of transport infrastructure on firm productivity in Mozambique. A conventional cost function is estimated with two rounds of firm data collected in 2007 and 2018. It is found that improved transport connectivity, particularly access to a port, has a positive impact on firm production. Firm inventory is also an important determinant of firm productivity. Over the long term, agglomeration economies are also found to be significant and associated with port accessibility. These findings are consistent with the fact that the Government of Mozambique heavily invested in the primary road network during the first half of the 2010s. The improved transport network is considered to have contributed to the country’s robust economic growth in the industrial and service sectors until the mid-2010s.
Port Development and Competition in East and Southern Africa: Prospects and Challenges
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-18) Humphreys, Martin; Stokenberga, Aiga; Herrera Dappe, Matias; Iimi, Atsushi; Hartmann, Olivier
Port Development and Competition in East and Southern Africa analyzes the 15 main ports in East and Southern Africa (ESA) to assess whether their proposed capacity enhancements are justified by current and projected demand; whether the current port management approaches sufficiently address not only the maritime capacity needs but also other impediments to port efficiency; and what the expected hierarchy of ports in the region will be in the future. The analysis confirms the need to increase maritime capacity, as the overall container demand in the ports in scope is predicted to begin exceeding total current capacity by between 2025 and 2030, while gaps in terms of dry and liquid bulk handling are expected even sooner. However, in the case of many of the ports, the issue of landside access—the ports’ intermodal connectivity, the ease of international border crossing, and the port-city interface—is more important than the need to improve maritime access and capacity. The analysis finds that there is a need to improve the operating efficiency in all of the ESA ports, as they are currently less than half as productive as the most efficient ports in the matched data set of similar ports across the world, in terms of efficiency in container-handling operations. Similarly, there is a need to improve and formalize stakeholder engagement in many of the ports, to introduce modern management systems, and to strengthen the institutional framework to ensure the most efficient use of the infrastructure and to be able to attract private capital and specialist terminal operators. Finally, given the ports’ geographic location and proximity to main shipping routes, available draft, and the ongoing port-and-hinterland development, the book concludes that Durban and Djibouti are the most likely to emerge as the regional hubs in ESA’s future hub-and-spoke system.
Spatial Analysis of Liberia’s Transport Connectivity and Potential Growth
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-06-11) Rao, Kulwinder; Iimi, Atsushi
Liberia has been influenced by the Ebola crisis since 2014, but the economy is now recovering quickly. Still, significant challenges lie ahead. Agriculture, an important sector that employs approximately half of the labor force, still has a weak growth trajectory. Many rural people are not well connected to markets and live below the poverty line. To use limited resources effectively, strategic planning and prioritization of public investment are essential. Particularly, the Ebola crisis revealed the vulnerability of the country's transport connectivity and health systems. This book analyzes the country's transport connectivity, identifying the existing bottlenecks and possible economic potentials. By taking advantage of the country's first-ever georeferenced road network data, the analysis casts light on various aspects of connectivity, such as rural accessibility, market access, access to port and health facilities and multimodal connectivity, including cabotage. It is shown that transport connectivity is crucial to increasing agricultural production, stimulating agglomeration economies, and supporting people's access to health care services. Significant resources are likely to be required to meet the existing gap. The book estimates the financial needs by development objective and discusses important policy issues, including the possibility of public-private partnerships to finance transport infrastructure.