Person:
Devarajan, Shantayanan
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Public economics,
Trade policy,
Natural resources and the environment,
General equilibrium modeling
Degrees
ORCID
External Links
Departments
Development Economics
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
January 31, 2023
Biography
Shanta Devarajan is the Senior Director for Development Economics (DEC) at the World Bank. Previously, he was the Chief Economist of the World Bank’s Middle East and North Africa Region. Since joining the World Bank in 1991, he has been a Principal Economist and Research Manager for Public Economics in the Development Research Group, and the Chief Economist of the Human Development Network, the South Asia Region and Africa Region. He was a director of the World Development Report 2004, Making Services Work for Poor People. Before 1991, he was on the faculty of Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. A member of the Overseas Development Institute’s Board of Trustees, and the author or co-author of more than 100 publications, Mr. Devarajan’s research covers public economics, trade policy, natural resources and the environment, and general equilibrium modeling of developing countries. Born in Sri Lanka, Mr. Devarajan received his B.A. in mathematics from Princeton University and his Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley. Shanta's latest blog posts can be found on his blog, Future Development. Please check out the Development Economics page for more info.
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 45
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Publication
Aid and Reform in Africa : Lessons from Ten Case Studies
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2001-04)This book synthesizes the findings from ten case studies that investigate whether, when, and how foreign aid affected economic policy in Africa, and reveals the range of African policy experience. Results varied enormously, for example, while Ghana and Uganda were successful reformers that grew rapidly reducing poverty, Cote d'Ivoire and Ethiopia have shown significant reform recently, but its sustainability remains to be seen, and, in other countries, policies changed little, or even worsened. Based on the World Bank's Country Policy and Institutional Assessment, the study relates foreign aid in the 1990s, to a measure of overall economic policy, a broad measure that covers macroeconomic management, as well as effectiveness of the public sector in providing essential services for growth, and poverty reduction. In assessing aid, and reform policy, the study subdivides these countries in three groups: the post-socialist reformers (Ethiopia, Mali and Tanzania); the mixed reformers (Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya and Zambia), and the non-reformers (The Democratic Republic of Congo - Zaire - and Nigeria). Although defining "good policy", and how to measure it may be controversial, research and experience established a fair knowledge: absence of high inflation, functioning foreign exchange, openness to foreign trade, effective rule of law, and delivery of key services. Conclusions stipulate that key to successful reform, is a political movement for change; that key to beneficial aid is its disbursement alongside actual policy improvements; and, that technical assistance, and policy dialogue should continue a high level of finance in productive environments. -
Publication
World Bank Economists' Forum : Volume 1
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2001-03-31)The first World Bank Economists' Forum was held on May 3-4, 1999. The forum attempts to answer these questions: How do you recognize a hidden fiscal crisis? When capital flows are volatile, what types of policy announcements can help fend off currency crises? Do government training programs for unemployed workers have an effect? What infrastructure investments reduce infant mortality? This book collects nine outstanding papers presented at the forum. The main theme surveyed in this book include fiscal policy, capital flows, trade, decentralization, labor markets, infrastructure, health, and worker training. The second volume collects eight more papers, concerned with household behavior and health, communities and welfare, local governments and basic services, and firms and governments under uncertainty. -
Publication
Goals for Development : History, Prospects, and Costs
(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2002-04)The Millennium Development Goals set quantitative targets for poverty reduction and improvements in health, education, gender equality, the environment, and other aspects of human welfare. At existing rates of progress many countries will fall short of these goals. However, if developing countries take steps to improve their policies and increased financial resources are made available, significant additional progress toward the goals is possible. The suthors provide a preliminary estimate of the additional financial resources which would be required if countries would work vigorously toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Two estimates of the resource gap are developed, one by estimating the additional resources necessary to increase economic growth so as to reduce income poverty, the other by estimating the cost of meeting specific goals in health, education, and the environment. Both estimates yield a figure in the range of $40-$70 billion in additional assistance per year, which is in line with estimates from other international development agencies and which would roughly represent a doubling of official aid flows over 2000 levels. While the authors believe this is a reasonable first approximation of the costs associated with achieving the Millennium Development Goals, it should be interpreted with caution for several reasons, including the lack of empirical data in many countries to estimate the relationship between expenditures on health or education and related outcomes, or the relationship between investment and growth, the sensitivity of the results to changes in the policy environment (both at the macroeconomic and sector level, and with respect to international trade), and opportunities for increased-and more efficient-domestic resource mobilization. -
Publication
The Long-Run Economic Costs of AIDS : A Model with an Application to South Africa
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2006-04-11)Primarily a disease of young adults, Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) imposes economic costs that could be devastatingly high in the long run by undermining the transmission of human capital the main driver of long-run economic growth across generations. AIDS makes it harder for victims' children to obtain an education and deprives them of the love, nurturing, and life skills that parents provide. These children will in turn find it difficult to educate their children, and so on. An overlapping generations model is used to show that an otherwise growing economy could decline to a low level subsistence equilibrium if hit with an AIDS type increase in premature adult mortality. Calibrating the model for South Africa, where the HIV prevalence rate is over 20 percent, simulations reveal that the economy could shrink to half its current size in about four generations in the absence of intervention. Programs to combat the disease and to support needy families could avert such a collapse, but they imply a fiscal burden of about 4 percent of Gross domestic product (GDP). -
Publication
World Bank Economists' Forum : Volume 2
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2002)The first World Bank Economists' Forum was held on May 3-4, 1999. The forum attempts to answer these questions: How do you recognize a hidden fiscal crisis? When capital flows are volatile, what types of policy announcements can help fend off currency crises? Do government training programs for unemployed workers have an effect? What infrastructure investments reduce infant mortality? This book collects nine outstanding papers presented at the forum. The main theme surveyed in this book include fiscal policy, capital flows, trade, decentralization, labor markets, infrastructure, health, and worker training. The second volume collects eight more papers, concerned with household behavior and health, communities and welfare, local governments and basic services, and firms and governments under uncertainty. -
Publication
Is Investment in Africa Too Low or Too High? Macro and Micro Evidence
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-01)The authors investigate the relationship between weak growth performance and low investment rates in Africa. The cross-country evidence suggests no direct relationship. The positive and significant coefficient on private investment appears to be driven by Botswana's presence in the sample. Allowing for the endogeneity of private investment, controlling for policy, and positing a nonlinear relationship make no difference to the conclusion. Higher investment in Africa would not by itself produce faster GDP growth. Africa's low investment and growth rates seem to be symptoms of underlying factors. To investigate those factors and to correct for some of the problems with cross-country analysis, the authors undertook a case study of manufacturing investment in Tanzania. They tried to identify why output per worker declined while capital per worker increased. Some of the usual suspects--such as shifts from high- to low-productivity subsectors, the presence of state-owned enterprises, or poor polices--did not play a significant role in this decline. Instead, low capacity utilization (possibly the by-product of poor policies) and constraints on absorptive capacity for skill acquisition seem to be critical factors. If Tanzania is not atypical, the low productivity of investment in Africa was the result of a combination of factors that occurred simultaneously, not any single factor. What does this tell us? First, we should be more careful about calling for an investment boom so that Africa can resume growth. Unless some or all of the underlying problems are addressed, the results may be disappointing. We should also be more circumspect about Africa's low savings rate; it may be low because returns to investment were so low. The relatively high level of capital flight from Africa may have been a level rational response to the lack of investment oportunities at home. Second, there is probably no single key to unlocking investment and GDP growth in Africa. All of the factors contributing to low productivity should be addressed simultaneously. -
Publication
The Long-run Economic Costs of AIDS : Theory and an Application to South Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-06)Most existing estimates of the macroeconomic costs of AIDS, as measured by the reduction in the growth rate of gross domestic product, are modest. For Africa-the continent where the epidemic has hit the hardest-they range between 0.3 and 1.5 percent annually. The reason is that these estimates are based on an underlying assumption that the main effect of increased mortality is to relieve pressure on existing land and physical capital so that output per head is little affected. The authors argue that this emphasis is misplaced and that, with a more plausible view of how the economy functions over the long run, the economic costs of AIDS are almost certain to be much higher. Not only does AIDS destroy existing human capital, but by killing mostly young adults, it also weakens the mechanism through which knowledge and abilities are transmitted from one generation to the next. The children of AIDS victims will be left without one or both parents to love, raise, and educate them. The model yields the following results. In the absence of AIDS, the counterfactual benchmark, there is modest growth, with universal and complete education attained within three generations. But if nothing is done to combat the epidemic, a complete economic collapse will occur within three generations. With optimal spending on combating the disease, and if there is pooling, growth is maintained, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than in the benchmark case in the absence of AIDS. If pooling breaks down and is replaced by nuclear families, growth will be slower still. Indeed, if school attendance subsidies are not possible, growth will be distinctly sluggish. In all three cases, the additional fiscal burden of intervention will be large, which reinforces the gravity of the findings. -
Publication
Decentralization and Service Delivery
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-05)Dissatisfied with centralized approaches to delivering local public services, a large number of countries are decentralizing responsibility for these services to lower-level, locally elected governments. The results have been mixed. The paper provides a framework for evaluating the benefits and costs, in terms of service delivery, of different approaches to decentralization, based on relationships of accountability between different actors in the delivery chain. Moving from a model of central provision to that of decentralization to local governments introduces a new relationship of accountability-between national and local policymakers-while altering existing relationships, such as that between citizens and elected politicians. Only by examining how these relationships change can we understand why decentralization can, and sometimes cannot, lead to better service delivery. In particular, the various instruments of decentralization-fiscal, administrative, regulatory, market, and financial-can affect the incentives facing service providers, even though they relate only to local policymakers. Likewise, and perhaps more significantly, the incentives facing local and national politicians can have a profound effect on the provision of local services. Finally, the process of implementing decentralization can be as important as the design of the system in influencing service delivery outcomes. -
Publication
Africa : Leveraging the Crisis into a Development Takeoff
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-09)Africa's precise growth and poverty reduction was the result of increased external resources, a buoyant global economy and crucially improved economic policies. Although it is still the world's poorest region, the prospects for resuming growth are good. Additional resources and further policy reforms could launch the continent on a path of sustained growth and poverty reduction. Africa is the world's poorest region and faces development challenges of monumental proportions. Nevertheless, the continents prospects for resuming growth are good because policy reforms generated relative rapid economic growth and poverty reduction before the global crisis, and because policy makers by and large continued to pursue these policies during the crisis. It also means that there is increasing political support for pro-poor reforms the very reforms that will help the continent address the challenges of infrastructure improvement, job creation, governance, and shrinking aid. If the international community continues to support Africa, the combination of additional resources and policy reforms could launch the continent on a path of sustained, rapid growth and poverty reduction. -
Publication
Firms' and States' Responses to Laxer Environmental Standards
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03)On June 1, 2017, President Trump announced the United States' withdrawal from the Paris agreement on climate change. Despite this decision, American firms continued investing in low-carbon technologies and some states committed to tougher environmental standards. To understand this apparent paradox, this paper studies how a weakening of environmental standards affects the behavior of profit-maximizing firms. It finds that a relaxation of emission standards (i) may increase firms' incentives to adopt clean technologies, but not to pollute less; (ii) may negatively affect industry profitability if it is perceived as temporary; and, when this is the case, (iii) the unilateral adoption of stricter standards by large states may increase the expected profitability of every firm.
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