Rogers, John Allen

Person:
Rogers, John Allen

Fields of Specialization

Climate change mitigation, Sustainable development, Energy economics, Transport

Last updated: October 9, 2023

Biography

John is an engineer specialized in vehicle emissions and low carbon development particularly in transport and energy. Through MBDs and bilateral organizations he has provided technical support to multiple countries to enhance green growth—low emissions and low carbon development planning for transport and the energy sectors. With the World Bank, he developed the EFFECT emissions and energy model and many low carbon development studies covering the power sector and transport in Latin America, Europe, and Asia. EFFECT is Excel-based bottom-up model of energy activities and emissions with associated costs and benefits, that models transport as well as the power sector, industry, nonresidential, and household electricity consumption.

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Now showing 1 - 8 of 8

Capital Controls in Emerging and Developing Economies and the Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-10-09) Ha, Jongrim; Liu, Haiqin; Rogers, John
Emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) exhibit significantly greater volatility in asset returns than advanced economies. The commonalities in these returns (and flows) across countries are particularly strong for EMDEs. If these occur independently of the exchange rate regime and if these global financial cycle effects are furthermore independent of countries’ financial openness, the result is Obstfeld (2022)’s “Lemma”: countries can do nothing to decouple from the global financial cycle. Under the prevalent view that U.S. monetary policy is the key driver of the global financial cycle, countries then inherit U.S. monetary policy no matter what they do on exchange rates or capital control policies. Using structural vector autoregression models for 78 countries over 1995–2019, as well as different methods of identifying U.S. monetary policy shocks from the literature, this paper tests the proposition that countries with less open capital accounts exhibit systematically smaller responses to U.S. monetary policy shocks than low capital control countries. This paper also considers the role of other institutional features such as exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange interventions in explaining cross-country differences in the responses to the shocks. The empirical results suggest that more stringent capital controls exhibit smaller responses of interest rates and exchange rates to U.S. monetary policy shocks and that this result holds more firmly for EMDEs than advanced economies. In contrast, the analysis finds only weak evidence that the degree of exchange rate flexibility affects U.S. spillovers to foreign interest rates and exchange rates.
Diversification and Cooperation in a Decarbonizing World: Climate Strategies for Fossil Fuel-Dependent Countries
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-07-02) van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Peszko, Grzegorz; Ward, John; Golub, Alexander; Zenghelis, Dimitri; Marijs, Cor; Schopp, Anne; Rogers, John A.; Midgley, Amelia
This book is the first stocktaking of what the decarbonization of the world economy means for fossil fuel–dependent countries. These countries are the most exposed to the impacts of global climate policies and, at the same time, are often unprepared to manage them. They depend on the export of oil, gas, or coal; the use of carbon-intensive infrastructure (for example, refineries, petrochemicals, and coal power plants); or both. Fossil fuel–dependent countries face financial, fiscal, and macro-structural risks from the transition of the global economy away from carbon-intensive fuels and the value chains based on them. This book focuses on managing these transition risks and harnessing related opportunities. Diversification and Cooperation in a Decarbonizing World identifies multiple strategies that fossil fuel–dependent countries can pursue to navigate the turbulent waters of a low-carbon transition. The policy and investment choices to be made in the next decade will determine these countries’ degree of exposure and overall resilience. Abandoning their comfort zones and developing completely new skills and capabilities in a time frame consistent with the Paris Agreement on climate change is a daunting challenge and requires long-term revenue visibility and consistent policy leadership. This book proposes a constructive framework for climate strategies for fossil fuel–dependent countries based on new approaches to diversification and international climate cooperation. Climate policy leaders share responsibility for creating room for all countries to contribute to the goals of the Paris Agreement, taking into account the specific vulnerabilities and opportunities each country faces.
Addressing Climate Change in Transport: Volume 1 : Pathway to Low-Carbon Transport
(World Bank, Hanoi, 2019-09-01) Oh, Jung Eun; Cordeiro, Maria; Rogers, John Allen; Nguyen, Khanh; Bongardt, Daniel; Dang, Ly Tuyet; Tuan, Vu Anh
Climate change is set to have profound effects on Vietnam’s development. With nearly sixty percent of its land area and seventy percent of population at risk of multiple natural hazards, Vietnam globally is among the most vulnerable countries to both chronic and extreme events. At the same time, as Vietnam’s economy grows, the country is becoming a significant emitter of greenhouse gases. While Vietnam’s absolute volume of emissions is still small compared to that of larger and richer countries, emissions are growing rapidly and disproportionate to its economy size. The transport sector plays a critical role in these recent trends. This study aims to set out a vision and strategy for climate-smart transport, in order to minimize the carbon footprint of the sector while ensuring its resilience against future risks. The analytical findings and recommendations are presented in two volumes of the report. The first volume provides how Vietnam can reduce its carbon emissions by employing a mix of diverse policies and investments, under varying levels of ambition and resources. The second volume provides a methodological framework to analyze network criticality and vulnerability, and to prioritize investments to enhance resilience.
Transport at COP21: Part of the Climate Change Solution
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-12) Ebinger, Jane; Peltier, Nicolas; Gitay, Habiba; Monsalve, Carolina; Losos, Andrew; Rogers, John Allen; Vandycke, Nancy
The case for climate action has never been stronger. Around the world, climate change is putting at risk the lives of millions of people as well as threatening many coastal cities and endangering trillion of dollars of investments in transport infrastructure and services. The Twenty-First Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will bring heads of state and ministers to Paris at the end of November to reach a global climate agreement with far-reaching implications for low-carbon and climate-resilient growth. Transport is playing a greater role in COP21 than in past UNFCCC conferences as a critical part of the solution: a sector that can contribute to both reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and building economy wide resilience to the impacts of climate change. In view of the sector’s potential, the heavily debated transport question is how to sustainably meet the rising global demand for greater interconnectedness and mobility. The World Bank and the seven other leading multilateral development banks have joined forces with the Paris Process for Mobility and Climate (PPMC) and the rest of the transport community to call for more action on transport and climate change.
More Climate Finance for Sustainable Transport
(2015-05) Ebinger, Jane O.; Vandycke, Nancy; Rogers, John Allen
Actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to stabilize warming at 2 degree Celsius, as agreed by the international community in 2009, will fall short if they do not include the transport sector. Transport is responsible for around 23 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions and emissions are expected to rise without further action to curb emission growth and invest in low carbon transport modes. Investment needs are estimated at around $3 trillion to increase the sustainability of existing and new transport systems and to mitigate climate change over the 2015-35 periods. This is in addition to existing annual investments estimated at $1-2 trillion. The actions taken today to send the right policy signals, and establish the enabling institutions and regulations to attract the necessary private finance will be critical to support this transformation. Significant investment opportunities exist in public transport systems, vehicle efficiency improvement, and reducing the need for travel through demand management, regional development policies, and land use planning. As the international community embarks on the road towards CoP 21 in Paris, there is a case to be made for more climate finance flowing towards transport.
Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria : An Analysis of Four Sectors
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-01-01) Dvorak, Irina; Cervigni, Raffaello; Rogers, John Allen; Cervigni, Raffaello; Rogers, John Allen; Dvorak, Irina
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the World Bank have agreed to carry out a Climate Change Assessment (CCA) within the framework of the Bank's Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Nigeria (2010-13). The CCA includes an analysis of options for low-carbon development in selected sectors, including power, oil and gas, transport, and agriculture. The goal of the low-carbon analysis is to define likely trends in carbon emissions up to 2035, based on government sector development plans, and to identify opportunities for achieving equivalent development objectives with a reduced carbon footprint. This study comprises the following components: (i) development of a reference scenario of greenhouse gas (GHG) net emissions for the agriculture sector, consistent with vision 20: 2020 and other government plans; (ii) identification of opportunities for reduced net emissions- reduced emissions and or enhanced carbon sequestration- while achieving the same development objectives as in the reference scenario; and (iii) economic assessment of low-carbon options in order to help the Nigerian government to prioritize policy options. The study evaluates costs and benefits in a partial equilibrium setting, with no attempt to capture the indirect, general equilibrium effects of adopting low-carbon technologies or management practices. The results of this analysis (the first of its kind in Nigeria) should be considered as a first approximation of the potential for low-carbon development in the Nigerian agriculture sector. The study aims at providing policy makers with an order-of-magnitude estimate of mitigation potential, and an understanding of the value of dedicating further efforts (including through specific projects) at pursuing low-carbon development in agriculture, but is not meant to inform the design of specific, project-level interventions.
Transport Activity Measurement Toolkit for On-Road Vehicles : Practitioners' Guide
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-06) Rogers, John A.
Although urbanization is frequently cited as a major cause of greenhouse gas and local air pollution emissions growth, it could be better understood as one of the crucial links between climate and development. Urbanization is a major driver of development, and once in cities, people tend to increase their mobility dramatically, driving an increase in greenhouse gas and other emissions from transport. The demand for transport is not limited only to urban environments. As each economy becomes richer, its demand for passenger and freight mobility increases. This increase in car usage coupled with a tendency to have a lower number of passengers per car, has been sufficient to offset the improvements gained in vehicle fuel efficiency. The increasing transport demand, if not accompanied by adequate growth in infrastructure and facilities, leads to rising congestion, time loss, and air quality deterioration that can stifle economic growth and quality of life. Finding the delicate balance of policy options to achieve long-term improvements in on-road transport and reduce the impact of its externalities is critical and needs to be tailored to each locale. This requires measurements both to design the interventions and evaluate their impacts. This transport activity measurement toolkit (TAMT) has been developed specifically to simplify this measurement process by providing standardized software, data collection forms, and a consistent standardized methodology.
Low-Carbon Development : Opportunities for Nigeria
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-05-29) Henrion, Max; Cervigni, Raffaello; Rogers, John Allen; Cervigni, Raffaello; Rogers, John Allen; Henrion, Max
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has formulated an ambitious strategy, known as Vision 20: 2020, which aims to make Nigeria the world s 20th largest economy by 2020. This book argues that there are many ways that Nigeria can achieve the Vision 20: 2020 development objectives for 2020 and beyond, but with up to 32 percent lower carbon emissions. A lower carbon path offers not only the global benefits of reducing contributions to climate change, but also net economic benefits to Nigeria, estimated at about 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The FGN and the World Bank agreed, as part of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) 2010-13, to conduct an analysis of the implications of climate change for Nigeria's development agenda. The current volume focuses on low-carbon development. Building on the work under way on Nigeria's nationally appropriate mitigation actions, the authors evaluate opportunities to pursue national development priorities using technologies and interventions that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), referred to here as low-carbon options. The document is structured as follows: chapter one is introduction; chapter two provides essential background on the country and the economic sectors. Chapter three describes the analytical approach, providing a summary of how the scenarios were developed, methods of analysis, models, and the data and general assumptions used. Chapters four-seven present the analysis and results for each sector: agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power, and transport, respectively. Each chapter provides an introduction to the sector and the approach, findings, and recommendations for options and actions for low-carbon development. Chapter eight summarizes the key findings across sectors. It describes the main scenarios that were modeled across all sectors and their implications for GHG emissions and the economy. It provides general recommendations on how Nigeria can reconcile national growth objectives with low-carbon development using a cross-sector perspective.