Person:
Kassa, Woubet
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
International trade,
Global value chains,
Regional integration,
Industrialization
Degrees
ORCID
External Links
Departments
Office of the Chief Economist for Africa Region
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
May 1, 2023
Biography
Woubet Kassa is an economist in the Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Region at the World Bank. Before joining the Africa Region, he worked with the Trade and International Integration Unit of the Development Research Group at the World Bank. He is currently working on topics including international trade, global value chains, regional integration, and industrialization. Woubet is from Ethiopia, where he was a lecturer at Addis Ababa University and worked with the Ethiopian Policy Research Institute. He received his PhD in economics from American University where he is currently an adjunct professorial lecturer.
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 10
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Publication
Assessing Food Insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean Using FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale
(Elsevier, 2017-08)The complexity of the operational concept and definition of food insecurity has complicated the study of the ‘food insecure’ and efforts to determine clear policy directions. Previous findings on the prevalence and severity of food insecurity are inconsistent and often depend on the measure used. To overcome limitations in food security measurement, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations developed the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, which is the first survey protocol to measure people’s direct experience of food insecurity on a global scale. Using this new measure, our study contributes to the understanding of the food insecure by examining the determinants of food insecurity within and across countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Using a series of multilevel linear models, we find the three determinants associated with the largest increase in the likelihood of experiencing food insecurity in LAC are: low levels of education, limited social capital, and living in a country with low GDP per capita. Results suggest the need to promote education of the most vulnerable, encourage social interactions that help build individuals’ social capital, and adopt gender-sensitive programs. The results also suggest the need for a shift in policy from short-term strategies to long-term efforts that sustain household productive capacity and employment to promote sustained economic growth. -
Publication
Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in African RECs: Drawing Lessons for AfCFTA
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-08)This study aims to draw key lessons for the African Continental Free Trade Area using evidence from within the region. Although drawing lessons from the rest of the world is essential, given the unique features of economies in the Africa region, the most relevant lessons can be drawn from the experiences of regional economic communities in the continent. The study draws on the eight regional economic communities that have been recognized by the African Union as pillars on which the continent will rely to implement the African Continental Free Trade Area. The study evaluates the trade creation and trade diversion impacts of each of the eight RECs and examines their performance with the goal of drawing lessons and identifying challenges for the success of the African Continental Free Trade Area. Despite significant heterogeneities, there is more trade creation than trade diversion and a generally positive impact on trade within the regional economic communities. Two regional economic communities in particular—the East African Community and the Southern African Development Community—outperform all the other regional economic communities in terms of boosting intra–regional economic community trade. This is mainly associated with the high level of investment in trade facilitation, the level of synergy between national and regional goals, the density of economic activity, and the advancement in the quantity and quality of regional infrastructure. There are also many challenges that policy makers should address to realize the objectives of the African Continental Free Trade Area and transform the continent. Learning from the regional economic communities is central. But, given the scope of the African Continental Free Trade Area, there is also a need to examine the transition from regional economic communities to the African Continental Free Trade Area, which is expected to be a sticky transition. -
Publication
Financial Development, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Growth Dynamics
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-08)This paper utilizes data for African countries to analyze the extent to which financial development affects the dynamics of the relationship between exchange rate flexibility and economic growth. The findings indicate that financial development exerts a positive influence on the relationship between exchange rate flexibility and GDP growth as well as total factor productivity growth. The paper also documents a positive impact of trade openness on the relationship between exchange rate flexibility and growth. Moreover, the results show a strong and positive association between exchange rate flexibility and financial development. The findings, therefore, suggest that discussions and decisions on exchange rate policy should be undertaken with consideration for structural policies that address the development of the financial sector. In addition, the paper asserts that policy makers should adopt a stance that facilitates some flexibility in exchange rates to foster development of the financial infrastructure in these economies. -
Publication
COVID-19 and Trade in SSA: Impacts and Policy Response
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06-01)Measures taken to curtail the spread of COVID-19 have led to a sharp contraction of the global economy and an even larger decline in trade, with significant implications on the livelihoods of people in Africa. Despite the relatively low number of cases, the region's economy would be hard hit due to its high reliance on trade, heavy dependence on commodities, a fragile food system, and limited fiscal capacity to respond. This reinforces the region's inherent vulnerabilities, posing risks of wiping out the gains made in poverty reduction. Countries that have been registering robust growth face rapid growth declines. The response calls for a regional and global coordination to scale up safety nets, facilitate flow of essential goods and ease the region's debt burden to free some fiscal space. There is a need for active policies to support enterprises so that disruptions are not permanent. As they chart their operations beyond the pandemic, countries should reexamine their industrial policies and firms need to rethink their strategies to address emerging uncertainties. -
Publication
Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act: A Synthetic Control Approach
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-08)This study examines the impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act using the synthetic control method, a quasi-experimental approach. The novelty in the approach is that it addresses problems of estimation that are prevalent in nonexperimental methods used to analyze the impact of preferential trade agreements. The findings show that most of the eligible countries registered gains in exports due to the African Growth and Opportunity Act. However, the results are varied, and the gains were largely unsteady. Much of the gains are due to exports of petroleum and other minerals, while there are few countries that were able to expand into manufacturing and other industrial goods. The positive trade impacts were largely associated with improvements in information and communications technology infrastructure, integrity in the institutions of legal and property rights, ease of labor market regulations, and sound macroeconomic environment, including stable exchange rates and low inflation. Undue exposure to a single market, like the United States, or few commodities may have also restricted the gains from trade. -
Publication
Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Seizing Opportunities in Global Value Chains
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-11-23)Industrialization drives the sustained growth in jobs and productivity that marks the developmental take-off of most developed economies. Yet, academics and policy makers have questioned the role of manufacturing in development for late industrializers, especially in view of rapid advancements in technologies and restructuring of international trade. Concurrently, industrialization and structural transformation are integral to the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the development strategies of several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Given this renewed interest in industrialization across the region, a central question is not whether SSA countries should pursue industrialization as a potential path to sustainable growth but how to promote the prospects of industrialization. Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Seizing Opportunities in Global Value Chains addresses this question by reassessing the prospects for industrialization in SSA countries through integration into global value chains. It also examines the role of policy in enhancing these prospects. The main findings indicate that • SSA has not experienced premature deindustrialization; the region has witnessed substantial growth in manufacturing jobs despite a lack of improvement in the contribution of manufacturing value-added to GDP. • The region’s integration into manufacturing global value chains is reasonably high but it is dominated by exports of primary products and engagement in low-skill tasks. • Global value chain integration has led to job growth, and backward integration is associated with more job creation. The report emphasizes the role of policy in maintaining a competitive market environment, promoting productivity growth, and investing in skills development and enabling sectors such as infrastructure and finance. Policy makers can strengthen the global value chain linkages by (1) increasing the value-added content of current exports, (2) upgrading into high-skill tasks, and (3) creating comparative advantages in knowledge-intensive industries. -
Publication
Africa's Pulse, No. 25, April 2022
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-13)Sub-Saharan Africa's recovery from the pandemic is expected to decelerate in 2022 amid a slowdown in global economic activity, continued supply constraints, outbreaks of new coronavirus variants, climatic shocks, high inflation, and rising financial risks due to high and increasingly vulnerable debt levels. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the already existing tensions and vulnerabilities affecting the continent. Given the sources of growth in the region and the nature of the economic linkages with Russia and Ukraine, the war in Ukraine might have a marginal impact on economic growth and on overall poverty—as this shock affects mostly the urban poor and vulnerable people living just above the poverty line. However, its largest impact is on the increasing likelihood of civil strife as a result of food- and energy-fueled inflation amid an environment of heightened political instability. The looming threats of stagflation require a two-pronged strategy that combines short-term measures to contain inflationary pressures and medium-to-long-term policies that accelerate the structural transformation and create more and better jobs. In response to supply shocks, monetary policy in the region may prove ineffective to bring down inflation and other short-run options may be restricted by the lack of fiscal space. Concessional financing might be key to helping countries alleviate the impact of food and fuel inflation. Over the medium term, avoiding stagflation may require a combination of actionable measures that improve the resilience of the economy by shoring up productivity and job creation. Lastly, ongoing actions to enhance social protection—including dynamic delivery systems for rapid scalability and shock-sensitive financing—could be strengthened further to improve economic resilience against shocks and foster investments in productive assets. -
Publication
Mobile Access Expansion and Price Information Diffusion: Firm Performance after Ethiopia’s Transition to 3G in 2008
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-08)This paper investigates whether enhanced access to mobile communications, including internet, primarily through smart phones, increases competition as price information is more widely available to customers—both households and firms. The exogenous shock to identify these impacts is the transition from 2G to the 3G broadband network standard in 2008, and the induced changes in the geographic variation across districts of data plan availability for households. The operational mechanism is that better household and firm telecommunications access can close information asymmetry gaps between buyers and sellers, with increased competition leading to improved firm performance. Lower markups and reduced price dispersion can result from better incentives for firms to preserve and grow market share. And as price competition squeezes profit margins, there are more incentives for firms to reduce costs—inducing higher total factor productivity growth. Improved firm performance can generate jobs and economic transformation. Indeed, faster productivity growth, due to enhanced access for buyers to mobile telecommunications, can translate into higher formal employment and wages. One open question is whether the potential competition, driven by the increased mobile telecommunications access of buyers, which help them have the best alternative prices at their fingertips, will also impact export-oriented companies. The prior is that the firm performance improvement effect would be more salient for firms mostly focused on local markets. The primary data sources are manufacturing firm census data and household expenditure survey data across woredas (districts or counties) in Ethiopia. First, the paper investigates the relation between expanded access with the 3G network to price information through mobile phones (measured at the woreda level as share of households with substantive expenditure to access data through smartphones) and firm performance measures (markups, total factor productivity, labor productivity, wage growth, wage gaps and employment growth.), across districts with different shares of mobile telecommunication and data plan penetration subscription. The paper estimates models with difference-in-differences and triple differences. The evidence is consistent with competition intensification after the improvement in access to mobile communication due to the 3G network rollout. In particular, markups were reduced and there was higher growth in productivity, wages, and employment. -
Publication
Africa in the New Trade Environment: Market Access in Troubled Times
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-10)Sub-Saharan Africa represents only a small share of global production and trade while hosting half of the extreme poor worldwide. To catch up with the rest of the world, the continent has no alternative: it must undertake reforms to scale up its supply capacity while better linking its production and trade to the global economy. If it does so, it stands to gain from unlimited demand and innovation along the supply chain. Some progress has been made over the past decade, with the region’s exports and imports growing rapidly. Because most African economies rely heavily on trade for a large share of national income, they will also be more vulnerable to the trade disruptions of external shocks, as illustrated by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Africa in the New Trade Environment: Market Access in Troubled Times provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art analysis by a team of renowned trade economists who present a strategy to bolster Sub-Saharan Africa’s market access in the current global environment. -
Publication
Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements: Impact of AGOA Suspensions on Exports
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-05-01)This study examines the impact of the abrupt suspension of African Growth and Opportunity Act benefits on exports from eligible African countries. The study uses a triple difference-in-differences estimation that controls for both country- and product-level export changes. The results suggest that the suspension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act has had a considerable negative impact on the level of exports to the United States. The impact appears to be bigger for countries with a high African Growth and Opportunity Act utilization rate. The suspension is associated with a 39 percent decline in exports to the United States. At the product level, the suspension hurt apparel and textile exports, leading to a decline of their exports by about 88 percent. Understanding the impact of withdrawing access to a nonreciprocal trade agreement is particularly important now, as the European Union began negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements with African countries, as a sign of a shift to reciprocity; the United States is considering a similar path of negotiating free trade agreements with individual African countries. These developments underscore the need to prepare for a post–African Growth and Opportunity Act period with more reciprocity, as trade uncertainty is becoming rampant.