Person:
Arvis, Jean-François
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Trade,
Transportation,
Logistics,
Connectivity
Degrees
ORCID
Departments
Trade and Integration
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
May 1, 2023
Biography
Jean-François Arvis, a Senior Economist with the International Trade Department, has been leading the development of advisory work, indicators and knowledge products in the area of logistics, connectivity, and networks. Prior to joining the Bank, he worked in senior positions with the French Ministry of Economy and Industry (regulation, trade, finance and development aid). He is a graduate from the Ecole Normale Supérieure in Paris and Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines, and holds doctorate degrees in physics.
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 23
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Publication
The Poisson Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator : A Solution to the “Adding Up” Problem in Gravity Models
(Taylor and Francis, 2012-08-28)This article shows that the Poisson Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) estimator applied to the gravity model produces estimates in which, summing across all partners, actual and estimated total trade flows are identical. Other methods such as OLS do not have this desirable property. Indeed, Poisson is the only QML estimator that preserves total trade flows. This result is an additional reason for preferring Poisson as a workhorse gravity model estimator. -
Publication
Trade Costs in the Developing World : 1995 - 2010
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)The authors use newly collected data on trade and production in 178 countries to infer estimates of trade costs in agriculture and manufactured goods for the 1995-2010 period. The data show that trade costs are strongly declining in per capita income. Moreover, the rate of change of trade costs is largely unfavorable to the developing world: trade costs are falling noticeably faster in developed countries than in developing ones, which serves to increase the relative isolation of the latter. In particular, Sub-Saharan African countries and low-income countries remain subject to very high levels of trade costs. In terms of policy implications, the analysis finds that maritime transport connectivity and logistics performance are very important determinants of bilateral trade costs: in some specifications, their combined effect is comparable to that of geographical distance. Traditional and non-traditional trade policies more generally, including market entry barriers and regional integration agreements, play a significant role in shaping the trade costs landscape. -
Publication
Integrating Gravity: The Role of Scale Invariance in Gravity Models of Spatial Interactions and Trade
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)This paper revisits the ubiquitous bi-proportional gravity model and investigates the reasons why different theoretical frameworks may lead to the same empirical formula. The generic gravity equation possesses scale invariance symmetries that constrain possible theoretical explanations based on optimal allocation principles, such as neoclassical or probabilistic frameworks. These constraints imply that a representative consumer's utilities must be separable, and that an entropy model is the only consistent maximum likelihood allocation of a matrix of flows between origin and destination. The paper explores the feasibility of wider classes of non-scale invariant gravity equations, where gravity is no longer bi-proportional by including nonlinear interactions between trade costs and fundamental country factors such as economic size. It shows that such extensions are feasible but that they do not result in a significant improvement in the explanatory power of the empirical analysis. -
Publication
How Many Dimensions Do We Trade In? Product Space Geometry and Latent Comparative Advantage
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06)This paper proposes a new quantitative implementation of Balassa's idea that export composition and revealed comparative advantage inform the relationship between endowments in domestic factors of production and exports. It proposes that the export composition of countries is close to a low-dimensional manifold or "Product Space" within the space of export composition, which has as many dimensions as product lines. The Product Space corresponds to a few latent endowments explaining the structure of the trade matrix. The model uses non-linear techniques to identify the product space from the 2010 export matrix of 128 countries and 61 products, and to estimate the latent factors of endowments by country. It formalizes a concept of latent comparative advantage, which has practical country specific applications, relevant for "trade competitiveness" policies. Compared with classical revealed comparative advantage, the model assesses how well countries are matching their potential implied by the latent variables, and also identifies products for which the latent advantage is not yet revealed (extensive margin). The data suggests that the degree of overlap between latent and revealed advantage is a metric of "trade competitiveness." -
Publication
Fighting Corruption in East Asia : Solutions from the Private Sector
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2003-08)The critical need for private sector involvement in the fight against corruption is now an accepted fact, particularly in East Asia, where there is a buoyant private sector and where corruption has often been equated with cronyism. Cutting off corruption's supply side is a vital step in limiting the economic damage inflicted by corrupt practices. Despite the importance of private sector efforts in this regard, little attention has been paid to company anticorruption programs and to trying to learn from company experience. This book, which is based on research cosponsored by the World Bank and the Conference Board, provides detailed documentation of the efforts of Western and Asian companies to develop good standards of business conduct in their East Asian operations. It provides evidence that a common set of principles for resisting corruption can be established notwithstanding the rich cultural diversity and ownership structure of firms based in that region. -
Publication
Global Connectivity and Export Performance
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-03)The World Bank has developed a novel method for measuring countries connectivity in global networks and has applied it to the global air transport network. Connectivity in this context is defined as a country s relative position in that network in terms of the total push and pull it exerts on air traffic, taking account of all possible links with other countries. Well-connected countries that are strongly connected to other well-connected countries are considered hubs in this definition. Less well-connected countries are spokes. The Air Connectivity Index (ACI) shows that connectivity is highly concentrated in North America and Europe ( hubs ); most developing countries are relatively poorly connected ( spokes ). Developing countries looking to increase their participation in global value chains need to improve their connectivity as part of their overall competitiveness strategy, including the progressive liberalization of their air transport sectors. -
Publication
Trade Costs and Development : A New Data Set
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)The World Bank and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) jointly prepared a new global data set of bilateral trade costs based on trade and production data. Accessible on the World Bank Open Data Web site, it opens new analytical possibilities for policy makers and researchers working on trade integration. The data stress the importance of supply chains and connectivity constraints in explaining the higher costs and lower levels of trade integration observed in developing countries. To measure trade costs in the developing world over the 1995-2010 period, UNESCAP and the World Bank embarked on a joint data collection exercise. In addition to data on export and import flows, calculation of trade costs using the inverse gravity methodology also requires information on domestic production in each country. Usage can then be calculated as domestic production less total exports. The result of the data collection exercise is a database covering up to 178 countries, two sectors, and the 1995-2010 period. Based on the available data, trade costs data are calculated for as many bilateral pairs as possible, and interpolation used to fill in missing country- year combinations when feasible. -
Publication
The Cost of Being Landlocked : Logistics Costs and Supply Chain Reliability
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-06)A large proportion of the least developed countries are landlocked and their access to world markets depends on the availability of a trade corridor and transit systems. Based on empirical evidence from World Bank projects and assessments in Africa, Central Asia, and elsewhere, this paper proposes a microeconomic quantitative description of logistics costs. The paper theoretically and empirically highlights that landlocked economies are primarily affected not only by a high cost of freight services but also by the high degree of unpredictability in transportation time. The main sources of costs are not only physical constraints but widespread rent activities and severe flaws in the implementation of the transit systems, which prevent the emergence of reliable logistics services. The business and donor community should push toward implementation of comprehensive facilitation strategies, primarily at the national level, and the design of robust and resilient transport and transit regimes. A better understanding of the political economy of transit and a review of the implementation successes and failures in this area are needed. -
Publication
Success Factors for Improving Logistics in a Middle-Income Country
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-10)This note presents the main lessons drawn from an analytical and sector work on trade logistics in Morocco. Public and private counterparts recognized the positive impact of the World Bank's report to catalyze and accelerate reforms' pace and to facilitate cooperation between public and private parties involved in logistics reforms. A careful preparation process and a strong buy-in from public and private stakeholders involved in logistics in Morocco made this Economic Sector Work (ESW) successful. To achieve this outcome, the Bank team based efforts on a tailored approach to commission background studies, knowledge dissemination during preparatory work and a detailed action plan in order to create a rapid and positive impact on improving logistics. The Moroccan example also demonstrates that, in a middle-income country, detailed and relevant action plan under a strong political willingness and commitment to reform can achieve rapid and significant results. -
Publication
The Eurasian Connection : Supply-Chain Efficiency along the Modern Silk Route through Central Asia
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-06-19)Central Asia is often associated with the silk route or road, the longest overland trade route connecting China to Europe and one of the oldest in history. Growth opportunities and the future prosperity of the region are highly dependent upon the efficiency of its internal and external supply-chain connections, which is the focus of this report. Supply-chain connectivity depends on the quality of the infrastructure on specific routes. This study explains how supply chain fragmentation remains a serious obstacle to economic development of Central Asia and to Eurasian integration more generally. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the various factors that yet impede supply-chain integration, including weak transport and communications infrastructure, but as important, and perhaps more so, critical weaknesses in policy, institutions, and governance. Based on this assessment this report provides an insightful set of recommendations that, if taken up by the governments of Central Asia and by their key neighbors, will go a long way in promoting the effective integration of Central Asia into an increasingly connected Eurasian continental economy and with that into the global economy.