Arvis, Jean-François

Person:
Arvis, Jean-François

Trade and Integration

Fields of Specialization

Trade, Transportation, Logistics, Connectivity

ORCID

0000-0003-2311-955X

Departments

Trade and Integration

Last updated: July 16, 2024

Biography

Jean-François Arvis, a Senior Economist with the International Trade Department, has been leading the development of advisory work, indicators and knowledge products in the area of logistics, connectivity, and networks. Prior to joining the Bank, he worked in senior positions with the French Ministry of Economy and Industry (regulation, trade, finance and development aid). He is a graduate from the Ecole Normale Supérieure in Paris and Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines, and holds doctorate degrees in physics.

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Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 25

A Metric of Global Maritime Supply Chain Disruptions: The Global Supply Chain Stress Index (GSCSI)
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-16) Arvis, Jean-François; Rastogi, Cordula; Rodrigue, Jean-Paul; Ulybina, Daria
Global supply chains recently faced widespread disruptions. The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions in 2021 and 2022, while in late 2023, geopolitical incidents in the Red Sea and water shortages in the Panama Canal disrupted global shipping routes. Regardless of the cause, delays, or rerouting mean that disruption diffuses at a global scale. To quantify and assess the magnitude of disruptions globally or locally, in 2021, the World Bank developed a proposed metric, the Global Supply Chain Stress Index. The index derives from Automatic Identification System tracking data. It calculates the equivalent stalled ship capacity measured in twenty-foot equivalent units), providing data at the port, country, regional, and global levels. This granular information can inform targeted interventions and contingency planning, improving the resilience of maritime infrastructure and networks. The index explains the observed surges in shipping rates during disruptions, assuming shippers’ willingness to pay for scarcer shipping slots. An increase of 1 million twenty-foot equivalent units in global stress pushes the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index up by US$2,300 per twenty-foot equivalent unit.
From Survey to Big Data: The New Logistics Performance Index
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-16) Arvis, Jean-François; Ulybina, Daria; Wiederer, Christina
The World Bank has published the Logistics Performance Index since 2007. The Logistics Performance Index used to be based exclusively on perception ratings from a global survey of logistics professionals. In 2023, it was augmented with key performance indicators derived from massive global international shipment tracking data (data on container shipping, air cargo, and postal logistics). The new set of indicators measure the speed and connectivity of international supply chains. This paper presents the data sources, rationale, and production of the indicators. It does not discuss the findings from the new indicators, nor does it introduce additional empirical work. The paper complements the 2023 issue of Connecting to Compete, the companion report to the Logistics Performance Index.
Connecting to Compete 2023: Trade Logistics in an Uncertain Global Economy - The Logistics Performance Index and Its Indicators
(World Bank, Washington DC, 2023-05-01) Arvis, Jean-François; Ojala, Lauri; Shepherd, Ben; Ulybina, Daria; Wiederer, Christina
This seventh edition of Connecting to Compete comes as disruptions of global value chains have revealed the crucial importance of logistics systems. Because of these disruptions, supply chain resilience and its national security implications have emerged as top concerns. These concerns are often linked with supply chain security, including cybersecurity—a key consideration in a highly digitalized and globally connected service industry. This report presents the latest view on trade logistics performance across 139 countries. Logistics is understood as a network of services that support the physical movement of goods, trade across borders, and commerce within borders. It comprises transportation, warehousing, brokerage, express delivery, terminal operations, and related data and information management.
Connecting to Compete 2018: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-07-24) Ojala, Lauri; Arvis, Jean-François; Shepherd, Ben; Wiederer, Christina; Raj, Anasuya; Dairabayeva, Karlygash; Kiiski, Tuomas
This is the sixth edition of Connecting to Compete, a report summarizing the findings from the new dataset for the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and its component indicators. The 2018 LPI also provides expanded data on supply chain performance and constraints in more than 100 countries, including information on time, distance and reliability, and ratings on domestic infrastructure quality, services, and border agencies. The 2018 LPI encapsulates the firsthand knowledge of movers of international trade. This information is relevant for policymakers and the private sector seeking to identify reform priorities for “soft” and “hard” trade and logistics infrastructure. Findings include: • Gaps in logistics performance between the bottom and top performers persist. • Supply chain reliability and service quality are strongly associated with logistics performance. • Infrastructure and trade facilitation initiatives still play an important role in assuring basic connectivity and access to gateways for most developing countries. • The logistics policy agenda continues to broaden, with growing focus on supply chain resilience, cyber security, environmental sustainability, and skills shortages.
Logistics and Freight Services: Policies to Facilitate Trade
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-05-04) Rastogi, Cordula; Arvis, Jean-Francois
The disruption to logistics and freight networks endangers trade and distribution of essential goods to combat the crisis and foster the recovery. Governments should work in coordination with logistics and retail industry, with a view to ensure continuity of shipping, air, trucking, and warehousing capacities at critical gateways and hubs and along trade corridors. The short-term response by governments and the private sector must go beyond addressing the immediate crisis and draw out the path towards economic resilience of the sector. Countries should also coordinate with key trading partners at the sub-regional or international level on policies such as increased e-services at ports and green express lanes for truckers. Countries should not install additional controls on transit commerce. Instead, border control and inspections should be streamlined and harmonized, based on international standards. To manage and ensure functioning of essential transport services, firms can use fewer workers and follow social distancing and other good health practices.
Maritime Networks, Port Efficiency, and Hinterland Connectivity in the Mediterranean
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019) Arvis, Jean-François; Vesin, Vincent; Carruthers, Robin; Ducruet, César; de Langen, Peter
For millennia, the Mediterranean has been one of the most active trading areas, supported by a transport network connecting riparian cities and beyond to their hinterland. The Mediterranean has complex trade patterns and routes--but with key differences from the past. It is no longer an isolated world economy: it is both a trading area and a transit area linking Europe and North Africa with the rest of the world through the hub-and-spoke structure of maritime networks. Understanding how trade connectivity works in the Mediterranean, and elsewhere, is important to policy makers, especially those in developing countries in the Mediterranean, concerned with the economic benefits of large investment in infrastructure. Better connectivity is expected to increase trade with distant markets and stimulate activities in the hinterland. This book is a practical exploration of the three interdependent dimensions of trade connectivity: maritime networks, port efficiency, and hinterland connectivity. Because of the complexity and richness of maritime and trade patterns in the Mediterranean, the research book combines both a regional focus and globally scalable lessons. This book is intended for a wide readership of policy makers in maritime affairs, trade, or industry; professionals from the world of finance or development institutions; and academics. It combines empirical analysis of microeconomic shipping and port data with three case studies of choice of port (focusing on Spain, Egypt, and Morocco) and five case studies on hinterland development (Barcelona; Malta; Marseilles; Port Said East, Egypt; and Tanger Med, Morocco).
Connecting to Compete 2016: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy--The Logistics Performance Index and Its Indicators
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06-28) Saslavsky, Daniel; Arvis, Jean-François; Ojala, Lauri; Shepherd, Ben; Raj, Anasuya; Busch, Christina; Naula, Tapio
The LPI has provided valuable information for policy makers, traders, and other stakeholders, including researchers and academics, on the role of logistics for growth and the policies needed to support logistics in areas such as infrastructure planning, service provision, and crossborder trade and transport facilitation. The results of Connecting to Compete 2016 point to Germany as the best performing country, with an LPI score of 4.23, and Syria as the lowest, with a score of 1.60 (equivalent to 19 percent of Germany’s score on a scale from 1 to 5). The converging trend between the top and worst performers that appeared in the previous LPI surveys (2007, 2010, 2012, and 2014) seems to have slightly reversed. The average scores in each quintile reveal that the gap between the top 2 quintiles and the countries at the bottom in performance is widening again.
Connecting to Compete 2014 : Trade Logistics in the Global Economy--The Logistics Performance Index and Its Indicators
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014) Saslavsky, Daniel; Arvis, Jean-François; Ojala, Lauri; Shepherd, Ben; Raj, Anasuya; Busch, Christina
Improving logistics performance is at the core of the economic growth and competitiveness agenda. Policymakers globally recognize the logistics sector as one of their key pillars for development. Trade powerhouses in Europe like the Netherlands or in developing countries like Vietnam or Indonesia see seamless and sustainable logistics as an engine of growth and of integration with global value chains. Indeed, inefficient logistics raises the costs of trading and reduces the potential for global integration. This is a hefty burden for developing countries trying to compete in the global marketplace. Since 2007, the Logistics Performance
The Poisson Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator : A Solution to the “Adding Up” Problem in Gravity Models
(Taylor and Francis, 2012-08-28) Shepherd, Ben; Arvis, Jean-François
This article shows that the Poisson Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) estimator applied to the gravity model produces estimates in which, summing across all partners, actual and estimated total trade flows are identical. Other methods such as OLS do not have this desirable property. Indeed, Poisson is the only QML estimator that preserves total trade flows. This result is an additional reason for preferring Poisson as a workhorse gravity model estimator.
The Eurasian Connection : Supply-Chain Efficiency along the Modern Silk Route through Central Asia
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-06-19) Rastogi, Cordula; Arvis, Jean-Francois
Central Asia is often associated with the silk route or road, the longest overland trade route connecting China to Europe and one of the oldest in history. Growth opportunities and the future prosperity of the region are highly dependent upon the efficiency of its internal and external supply-chain connections, which is the focus of this report. Supply-chain connectivity depends on the quality of the infrastructure on specific routes. This study explains how supply chain fragmentation remains a serious obstacle to economic development of Central Asia and to Eurasian integration more generally. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the various factors that yet impede supply-chain integration, including weak transport and communications infrastructure, but as important, and perhaps more so, critical weaknesses in policy, institutions, and governance. Based on this assessment this report provides an insightful set of recommendations that, if taken up by the governments of Central Asia and by their key neighbors, will go a long way in promoting the effective integration of Central Asia into an increasingly connected Eurasian continental economy and with that into the global economy.