Giugale, Marcelo

Person:
Giugale, Marcelo

Financial Advisory and Banking Services, World Bank Treasury

Fields of Specialization

Debt management, Financial Integrity, Public Finance

Departments

Financial Advisory and Banking Services, World Bank Treasury

Last updated: January 31, 2023

Biography

Marcelo Giugale is the Director of the World Bank’s Department of Financial Advisory and Banking Services—the team of professionals who help emerging and developing countries manage their reserves, lighten their debts, and hedge their risks. A former Director of country, regional, and global Departments, and an international development leader, his twenty-eight years of experience span the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Latin-America, and Africa, where he led senior-level policy dialogue and over thirty billion dollars in lending operations across the development spectrum. An elected Fellow of the US National Academy of Public Administration, he has published on macroeconomic policy, finance, subnational fiscal rules, development economics, business, agriculture, and applied econometrics. Notably, he was the chief editor of collections of policy notes published for the presidential transitions in Mexico (2000), Colombia (2002), Ecuador (2003), Bolivia (2006) and Peru (2006). In 2014, he authored “Economic Development: What Everyone Needs to Know”, a featured volume by Oxford University Press. His opinion editorials are published in the leading newspapers and blog-sites of the USA, Europe, Latin-America, and Africa. He received decorations from the governments of Bolivia and Peru, and taught at the American University in Cairo, The London School of Economics, and the Universidad Católica Argentina. A citizen of Argentina and Italy, he holds a PhD and a MSc in Economics from The London School of Economics, and a Summa-Cum-Laude BA in Economics from Universidad Católica Argentina. You can watch his TED talk (“Ending Poverty”) and follow him on Twitter at @Marcelo_WB.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 14

The Political Economy of Direct Dividend Transfers in Resource-Rich Countries: A Theoretical Consideration
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02) McGuirk, Eoin; Rajaram, Anand; Giugale, Marcelo
The acceleration of natural resource discoveries across many parts of the developing world has highlighted the urgent need for solutions to the mismanagement of windfalls that has blighted many countries over the past half-century. One proposal involves distributing annually a share of resource rents to citizens in the form of direct dividend transfers. Although many scholars and policy makers have discussed the potential economic and political ramifications of the proposal from a normative perspective, few have analyzed positively the conditions under which such a policy may emerge as a politically rational choice. This policy research paper fills that gap by modeling the decision of political leaders to allocate resource revenues between cash transfers, public goods, power-preserving activities, and personal consumption. The analysis finds first that propitious political conditions, including competitive elections, undeveloped patronage networks, and a high degree of budgetary accountability, increase the share of resource revenues to be spent on citizens' welfare. The paper then shows that a high poverty headcount and inefficient public institutions will each strengthen the political incentive to provide direct dividend transfers relative to public goods. This combination of conditions is rare, which may explain why relatively few countries have implemented or plan to implement direct dividend transfers.
Collecting High Frequency Panel Data in Africa Using Mobile Phone Interviews
(Taylor and Francis, 2014-04-01) Hoogeveen, Johannes; Croke, Kevin; Dabalen, Andrew; Demombynes, Gabriel; Giugale, Marcelo
As mobile phone ownership rates have risen in Africa, there is increased interest in using mobile telephony as a data collection platform. This paper draws on two pilot projects that use mobile phone interviews for data collection in Tanzania and South Sudan. In both cases, high frequency panel data have been collected on a wide range of topics in a manner that is cost effective, flexible and rapid. Attrition has been problematic in both surveys, but can be explained by the resource and organizational constraints that both surveys faced. We analyze the drivers of attrition to generate ideas for how to improve performance in future mobile phone surveys.
The Day After Tomorrow : A Handbook on the Future of Economic Policy in the Developing World
(World Bank, 2010) Canuto, Otaviano; Giugale, Marcelo
Development economists are paid to look into the future. They ask not only how things work today, but also how a new policy, program, or project will make them work tomorrow. They view the world and history as a learning process, past and present are just inputs into thinking about what's coming. It is that appetite for a vision of the future that led us to invite some 40 development economists, most of them from the World Bank's poverty reduction and economic management network, an epicenter of the profession, to tell us what they see on the horizon of their technical disciplines and of their geographic areas of specialization. The timing could not be better. The 2008-09 global financial crises shook the ground under the conventional wisdom that had been held as true for decades. From what the role of governments should be in markets to which countries will be the engines of the world's economy, from what people need to leave poverty to what businesses need to stay competitive, it is all up for reexamination. This synthesis provides an account of what the author heard. It is not meant to be comprehensive. Instead, it picks from each chapter what is new, what is likely to change, and what will be different in the future.
Africa's Macroeconomic Story
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-10) Hostland, Douglas; Giugale, Marcelo M.
Much of Sub-Saharan Africa's post-independence macroeconomic history has been characterized by boom-bust cycles. Growth accelerations have been common, but short lived. Weak policy formulation and implementation led to large external and fiscal imbalances, excessive debt accumulation, volatile inflation, and sharp exchange rate fluctuations. This characterization changed, however, in the mid-1990s, when debt relief and better macroeconomic policy began to provide a source of stability that has helped sustain robust growth throughout much of the region. In resource rich countries, the process was supported over the past few years by a dramatic increase in commodity prices. But resources are only one part of the story. Growth has exhibited impressive resilience even in the face of negative external shocks, as in 2008-2009. While the short-term outlook remains positive, over the medium term policy makers face new challenges. Several countries have the potential to greatly expand natural resource production and become major commodity exporters; volatile resource revenue will complicate their fiscal and monetary planning. Rising investor appetite for financial assets of frontier markets and the development of domestic debt markets will continue to broaden the menu of and trade-offs among financing options at a time when global interest rates may start sloping upward. Complex financing arrangements -- notably for private-public or public-public partnerships in infrastructure -- will become more common and will generate new types of fiscal commitments and contingencies.
Do Our Children Have a Chance? A Human Opportunity Report for Latin America and the Caribbean
(World Bank, 2012) Molinas Vega, José R.; Paes de Barros, Ricardo; Saavedra Chanduvi, Jaime; Giugale, Marcelo; Cord, Louise J.; Pessino, Carola; Hasan, Amer
This book reports on the status and evolution of human opportunity in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It builds on the 2008 publication in several directions. First, it uses newly available data to expand the set of opportunities and personal circumstances under analysis. The data are representative of about 200 million children living in 19 countries over the last 15 years. Second, it compares human opportunity in LAC with that of developed countries, among them the United States and France, two very different models of social policy. This allows for illuminating exercises in benchmarking and extrapolation. Third, it looks at human opportunity within countries, across regions, states, and cities. This gives us a preliminary glimpse at the geographic dimension of equity, and at the role that different federal structures play. The overall message that emerges is one of cautious hope. LAC is making progress in opening the doors of development to all, but it still has a long way to go. At the current pace, it would take, on average, a generation for the region to achieve universal access to just the basic services that make for human opportunity. Seen from the viewpoint of equity, even our most successful nations lag far behind the developed world, and intracounty regional disparities are large and barely converging. Fortunately, there is much policy makers can do about it.
Collecting High-Frequency Data Using Mobile Phones : Do Timely Data Lead to Accountability?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01) Croke, Kevin; Dabalen, Andrew; Demombynes, Gabriel; Giugale, Marcelo; Hoogeveen, Johannes
As mobile phone ownership rates have risen dramatically in Africa, there has been increased interest in using mobile telephones as a data collection platform. This note draws on two largely successful pilot projects in Tanzania and South Sudan that used mobile phones for high-frequency data collection. Data were collected on a wide range of topics and in a manner that was cost-effective, flexible, and rapid. Once households were included in the survey, they tended to stick with it: respondent fatigue has not been a major issue. While attrition and nonresponse have been challenges in the Tanzania survey, these were due to design flaws in that particular survey, challenges that can be avoided in future similar projects. Ensuring use of the data to demand better service delivery and policy decisions turned out to be as challenging as collecting the high-quality data. Experiences in Tanzania suggest that good data can be translated into public accountability, but also demonstrate that just putting data out in the public domain is not enough. This note discusses lessons learned and offers suggestions for future applications of mobile phone surveys in developing countries, such as those planned for the World Bank's "Listening to Africa" initiative.
Collecting High Frequency Panel Data in Africa Using Mobile Phone Interviews
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-06) Croke, Kevin; Dabalen, Andrew; Demombybes, Gabriel; Giugale, Marcelo; Hoogeveen, Johannes
As mobile phone ownership rates have risen in Africa, there is increased interest in using mobile telephony as a data collection platform. This paper draws on two pilot projects that use mobile phone interviews for data collection in Tanzania and South Sudan. The experience was largely a success. High frequency panel data have been collected on a wide range of topics in a manner that is cost effective, flexible (questions can be changed over time) and rapid. And once households respond to the mobile phone interviews, they tend not to drop out: even after 33 rounds of interviews in the Tanzania survey, respondent fatigue proved not to be an issue. Attrition and non-response have been an issue in the Tanzania survey, but in ways that are related to the way this survey was originally set up and that are fixable. Data and reports from the Tanzania survey are available online and can be downloaded from: www.listeningtodar.org.
A Brave New World for Latin America
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-04) Giugale, Marcelo M.
With variations across countries, Latin America's economic agenda will change over the next few years. Fiscal policy will be monitored more independently, and may lean more against cycles. Financial regulation will be heavier, and less attuned with a single international model. Innovation will be at the center of trade strategies. Equity will begin to replace equality as the driver of social programs. More state agencies will be managed by results, starting the long process of earning citizens' trust. The region will play a larger global role, led by Brazil. And if the world's economy holds, most Latin Americans will be on a faster development path.
Ecuador : An Economic and Social Agenda in the New Millennium
(World Bank: Washington, DC, 2003-05) Fretes-Cibils, Vicente; Giugale, Marcelo M.; López-Cálix, José Roberto
The book focuses on three overarching themes: fiscal consolidation and growth; social development; and, quality of government, and, documents Ecuador's development trends, policies, and options. The fundamental challenges facing the country are identified within this book, and the solutions represent a break with the past: this is a proposal for an agenda with a broad, and integrated vision of economic, and social development in Ecuador. As a central message, the book outlines that although economic growth is a necessary condition to combat poverty, it would however be insufficient, unless growth is sustainable, and participatory, i.e., that broad sectors of the most vulnerable population (such as marginalized indigenous populations) are included. Thus, the argument for preserving stability with fiscal discipline, and accelerating growth with competitiveness, is based on a guaranteed balanced macroeconomic framework, that promotes economic expansion and competitiveness by making input markets - particularly the labor market - more flexible, by opening the economy to foreign trade, and eliminating trade policies. Expansion of the petroleum sector should be accelerated through legal and regulatory changes to prod fiscal stability, and promote private investments. Boosting sustainable, and equitable social development can be ensured by the government through actions focused on human capital development, improved quality of education and health services, and efficient social safety network. And in building a quality government that serves its people, and fights against corruption, the book stipulates regulatory reforms, and provision of direct services, within a strategy complemented with strengthened civil service, and deepening of the judicial reform, in the general context of decentralization.
Revisiting Ecuador's Economic and Social Agenda in an Evolving Landscape
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2008) Fretes-Cibils, Vicente; Giugale, Marcelo; Somensatto, Eduardo
The policy notes for Ecuador are part of a series of books that the Bank prepares periodically summarizing its accumulated knowledge on the economic and social issues of member countries. The timing of the notes, early 2007, coincides with a new presidential period, which offers the country the opportunity to consolidate many of the gains of the past few years, while building the basis for a more dynamic, equitable and inclusive growth process. The analysis contained in the policy notes indicates that Ecuador is a country with great potential, with a society that has exhibited incredible resilience and the ability to adapt to new challenges. The Ecuadoran society has overcome adversity with great determination in the past few years. Periodic economic crises, external shocks, and even natural disasters tested the country's ability to cope with difficulties. Despite these challenges, the country has maintained a forward-looking perspective and has achieved some important goals. Economic stability in the past few years has given Ecuador the opportunity for a period of sustained economic growth. During this period several development indicators have improved, and several sectors of the economy have demonstrated the dynamism and entrepreneurship that are present the Ecuadoran culture. In general, surveys show that Ecuadorans feel that their individual conditions are likely to improve in the future. The notes cover many areas and subjects but are grouped into three broad themes: preserving stability and accelerating growth, promoting sustainable and equitable social development, and improving governance and strengthening institutions. The remainder of this chapter summarizes the main findings and recommendations of the policy notes.