Friedman, Jed

Person:
Friedman, Jed

Development Research Group, Development Economics, DEC

Fields of Specialization

Poverty, POV, Health, HEA

ORCID

0000-0002-6763-5890

Departments

Development Research Group
Development Economics, DEC

Externally Hosted Work

sites.google.com/site/decrgjedfriedman

Last updated: May 6, 2025

Jed Friedman

Lead Economist

Jed Friedman is a Lead Economist in the Development Research Group (Poverty and Inequality Team) at the World Bank. His research interests include the measurement of wellbeing and poverty as well as the evaluation of health and social policies. Jed's current work involves investigating the effectiveness of health financing reforms in Kyrgyzstan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe; the nutritional and development gains from early childhood investment programs in India and the Philippines; and the incorporation of new approaches to survey-based wellbeing measurement in Peru and Malawi. Jed holds a B.A. in philosophy from Stanford University and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan.

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Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 40

Cash Is Queen: Local Economy Effects of Cash Transfers to Women in West Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-06) Papineni, Sreelakshmi; Gonzalez, Paula; Goldstein, Markus; Friedman, Jed
This paper examines the direct and spillover effects of cash transfers paid in a rural and low-income setting. In the short run, an unconditional cash transfer program for ultra-poor households in Northern Nigeria led to a 12 percentage point increase in micro-enterprise formation for program recipients. Moreover, benefits continued to increase in magnitude after program cessation and also extended to nearby non-beneficiary households when compared to counterparts in other villages where no cash transfers were paid. One year after program cessation, beneficiary women increased their enterprise ownership rate by 20 percentage points, while the rate for non-beneficiary women increased by 13 percentage points. Both groups of households enjoyed higher consumption and food security, and shifted away from husband-centered toward joint intrahousehold decision-making. One mechanism for this growth spillover is a boost to aggregate demand for local goods, in part identified by the positive link between the (randomly determined) neighborhood density of cash transfer households and enterprise creation. The increase in local female entrepreneurial activity translates to a partial income multiplier of at least 0.32. Women face restrictive social norms around work in this context and the slack productive resource brought into activity by the cash transfer is female labor, specifically female-led entrepreneurship near the home.
Lives, Livelihoods, and Learning: A Global Perspective on the Well-Being Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-22) Decerf, Benoit; Mendes, Arthur; Yonzan, Nishant; Friedman, Jed; Pennings, Steven
This study compares the magnitude of national level losses that the COVID-19 pandemic inflicted across three critical dimensions: loss of life, loss of income, and loss of learning. The well-being consequences of excess mortality are expressed in years of life lost, while those of income losses and school closures are expressed in additional years spent in poverty (measured by national poverty lines), either currently or in the future. While 2020–21 witnessed a global drop in life expectancy and the largest one-year increase in global poverty in many decades, widespread school closures may cause almost twice as large an increase in future poverty. The estimates of well-being loss for the average global citizen include a loss of 8 days of life, an additional two and half weeks spent in poverty in 2020 and 2021 (17 days), and the possibility of an additional month of life in poverty in the future due to school closures (31 days). Well-being losses are unequally distributed across countries. The typical high-income country suffered the least additional poverty years while low- and low-middle-income countries suffered far higher poverty losses with roughly the same degree of mortality shock as richer countries. Upper-middle income countries experienced the highest mortality shock of all and also high poverty costs. Aggregating total losses requires the valuation of a year of life lost vis-à-vis an additional year spent in poverty. For the wide range of valuations considered, high-income countries experienced the lowest well-being loss. Aggregate losses were much higher among lower-income countries. This is especially true for countries in the Latin America region who suffered the largest mortality costs as well as large losses in learning and sharp increases in poverty
Improving Effective Coverage in Health: Do Financial Incentives Work?
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-11) de Walque, Damien; Kandpal, Eeshani; Wagstaff, Adam; Friedman, Jed; Neelsen, Sven; Piatti-Fünfkirchen, Moritz; Sautmann, Anja; Shapira, Gil; Van de Poel, Ellen
In many low- and middle-income countries, health coverage has improved dramatically in the last two decades, but health outcomes have not. As such, effective coverage -- a measure of service delivery that meets a minimum standard of quality -- remains unacceptably low. This Policy Research Report examines one specific policy approach to improving effective coverage: financial incentives in the form of performance-based financing (PBF) or financial incentives to health workers on the front lines. The report draws on a rich set of rigorous studies and new analysis. When compared to business-as-usual, in low-income settings with centralized health systems PBF can result in substantial gains in effective coverage. However, the relative benefits of PBF are less clear when it is compared to two alternative approaches, decentralized facility financing which provides operating budget to frontline health services with facility autonomy on allocation, and demand-side financial support for health services (i.e., conditional cash transfers and vouchers). While PBF often results in improvements on the margins, closing the substantial gaps in effective health coverage is not yet within reach for many countries. Nonetheless, there are important lessons learned and experiences from the roll-out of PBF over the last decade which can guide health policies into the future.
A Puzzle with Missing Pieces: Explaining the Effectiveness of World Bank Development Projects
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-07-12) Ashton, Louise; Friedman, Jed; Goldemberg, Diana; Hussain, Mustafa Zakir; Kenyon, Thomas; Khan, Akib; Zhou, Mo
The identification of key determinants of aid effectiveness is a long-standing question in the development community. This paper reviews the literature on aid effectiveness at the project level and then extends the inquiry in a variety of dimensions with new data on World Bank investment project financing. It confirms that the country institutional setting and quality of project supervision are associated with project success, as identified previously. However, many aspects of the development project cycle, especially project design, have been difficult to measure and therefore under-investigated. The paper finds that project design, as proxied by the estimated value added of design staff, the presence of prior analytic work, and other specially collected measures, is a significant predictor of ultimate project success. These factors generally grow in predictive importance as the income level of the country rises. The results also indicate that a key determinant of the staff's contribution is their experience with previous World Bank projects, but not other characteristics such as age, education, or country location. Key inputs to the project production process associated with subsequent performance are not captured in routine data systems, although it is feasible to do so. Further, the conceptualization and measurement of the success of project-based aid should be revisited by evaluative bodies to reflect a project's theorized contribution to development outcomes.
Financial Incentives to Increase Utilization of Reproductive, Maternal, and Child Health Services in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10) Neelsen, Sven; de Walque, Damien; Friedman, Jed; Wagstaff, Adam
Financial incentives for health providers and households are increasingly used to improve reproductive, maternal, and child health service coverage in low- and middle-income countries. This study provides a quantitative synthesis of their effectiveness. A systematic review was conducted of the effects of performance-based financing, voucher, and conditional cash transfer programs on six reproductive, maternal, and child health service indicators, with eligible evidence coming from randomized controlled trials and studies using double-difference, instrumental variables, and regression discontinuity designs. Four literature searches were conducted between September 2016 and March 2021 using seven academic databases, Google Scholar, development agency and think tank websites, and previous systematic reviews. Random effects meta-analysis was used to obtain mean effect sizes. From 58 eligible references 212 impact estimates were extracted, which were synthesized into 130 program-specific effect sizes. Financial incentives increase coverage of all considered reproductive, maternal, and child health indicators, but mean effects sizes are of modest magnitude. Effect size heterogeneity is typically low to moderate, and there is no indication that study bias risk, baseline indicator levels, or a combination of provider- and household-level incentives impact effect sizes. There is, however, weak evidence that mean effect sizes are somewhat smaller for performance-based financing than for voucher and conditional cash transfer programs, and that the increase in income, rather than the incentive itself, drives coverage improvements. Financial incentives improve reproductive, maternal, and child health service coverage. If future research confirms the preliminary finding that performance-based financing has smaller effects, voucher and conditional cash transfer programs are the preferred policy option among incentive interventions to achieve higher reproductive, maternal, and child health service coverage. The relative effectiveness and efficiency of incentives compared with unconditional increases of provider and household incomes, however, need to be studied further.
The Distribution of Effort: Physical Activity, Gender Roles, and Bargaining Power in an Agrarian Setting
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2023-01-03) Friedman, Jed; Gaddis, Isis; Kilic, Talip; Martuscelli, Antonio; Palacios-Lopez, Amparo; Zezza, Alberto
Physical effort is a primary component in models of economic behavior. However, applications that measure effort are historically scarce. This paper assesses the differences in physical activity between men and women through wearable accelerometers and uses these activity measures as a proxy for physical effort. Crucially, the accelerometer-generated data measures the level of physical activity associated with each activity or task recorded in the data. In this rural setting, women exert marginally higher levels of physical effort. However, differences in effort between men and women among married partners are strongly associated with differences in bargaining power, with larger husband-wife effort gaps alongside differences in age, individual land ownership, and an overall empowerment index. Physical activity can exhibit an unequal distribution between men and women suggesting that gender disadvantage, at least within couples, extends to the domain of physical effort.
A Puzzle with Missing Pieces: Explaining the Effectiveness of World Bank Development Projects
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12) Ashton, Louise; Friedman, Jed; Goldemberg, Diana; Hussain, Mustafa Zakir; Kenyon, Thomas; Khan, Akib; Zhou, Mo
The identification of key determinants of aid effectiveness is a long-standing question in the development community. This paper reviews the literature on aid effectiveness at the project level and then extends the inquiry in a variety of dimensions with new data on World Bank investment project financing. It confirms that the country institutional setting and quality of project supervision are associated with project success, as identified previously. However, many aspects of the development project cycle, especially project design, have been difficult to measure and therefore under-investigated. The paper finds that project design, as proxied by the estimated value added of design staff, the presence of prior analytic work, and other specially collected measures, is a significant predictor of ultimate project success. These factors generally grow in predictive importance as the income level of the country rises. The results also indicate that a key determinant of the staff’s contribution is their experience with previous World Bank projects, but not other characteristics such as age, education, or country location. Key inputs to the project production process associated with subsequent performance are not captured in routine data systems, although it is feasible to do so. Further, the conceptualization and measurement of the success of project-based aid should be revisited by evaluative bodies to reflect a project’s theorized contribution to development outcomes.
Disruptions in Maternal and Child Health Service Utilization during COVID-19: Analysis from Eight Sub-Saharan African Countries
(Oxford University Press, 2021-06-19) Ahmed, Tashrik; Shapira, Gil; Drouard, Salome Henriette Paulette; Fernandez, Pablo Amor; Nzelu, Charles; Kandpal, Eeshani; Sanford Wesseh, Chea; Mohamud, Nur Ali; Smart, Francis; Mwansambo, Charles; Baye, Martina L; Diabate, Mamatou; Yuma, Sylvain; Ogunlayi, Munirat; De Dieu Rusatira, Rwema Jean; Hashemi, Tawab; Vergeer, Petra; Friedman, Jed
The coronavirus-19 pandemic and its secondary effects threaten the continuity of essential health services delivery, which may lead to worsened population health and a protracted public health crisis. We quantify such disruptions, focusing on maternal and child health, in eight sub-Saharan countries. Service volumes are extracted from administrative systems for 63 954 facilities in eight countries: Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Somalia. Using an interrupted time series design and an ordinary least squares regression model with facility-level fixed effects, we analyze data from January 2018 to February 2020 to predict what service utilization levels would have been in March–July 2020 in the absence of the pandemic, accounting for both secular trends and seasonality. Estimates of disruption are derived by comparing the predicted and observed service utilization levels during the pandemic period. All countries experienced service disruptions for at least 1 month, but the magnitude and duration of the disruptions vary. Outpatient consultations and child vaccinations were the most commonly affected services and fell by the largest margins. We estimate a cumulative shortfall of 5 149 491 outpatient consultations and 328 961 third-dose pentavalent vaccinations during the 5 months in these eight countries. Decreases in maternal health service utilization are less generalized, although significant declines in institutional deliveries, antenatal care and postnatal care were detected in some countries. There is a need to better understand the factors determining the magnitude and duration of such disruptions in order to design interventions that would respond to the shortfall in care. Service delivery modifications need to be both highly contextualized and integrated as a core component of future epidemic response and planning.
The Distribution of Effort: Physical Activity, Gender Roles, and Bargaining Power in an Agrarian Setting
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04) Kilic, Talip; Friedman, Jed; Martuscelli, Antonio; Gaddis, Isis; Palacios-Lopez, Amparo; Zezza, Alberto
The disutility of work, often summarily described as effort, is a primal component of economic models of worker and consumer behavior. However, empirical applications that measure effort, especially those that assess the distribution of effort across known populations, are historically scarce. This paper explores intra-household differences in physical activity in a rural agrarian setting. Physical activity is captured via wearable accelerometers that provide a proxy for physical effort expended per unit of time. In the study setting of agricultural households in Malawi, men devote significantly more time to sedentary activities than women (38 minutes per day), but also spend more time on moderate-to-vigorous activities (16 minutes). Using standardized energy expenditure as a summary measure for physical effort, women exert marginally higher levels of physical effort than men. However, gender differences in effort among married partners are strongly associated with intra-household differences in bargaining power, with significantly larger husband-wife effort gaps alongside larger differences in age and individual land ownership as well as whether the couple lives as part of a polygamous union. Physical activity -- a proxy for physical effort, an understudied dimension of wellbeing -- exhibits an unequal distribution across gender in this population.
How Many Infants May Have Died in Low-Income and Middle-Income Countries in 2020 Due to the Economic Contraction Accompanying the COVID-19 Pandemic? Mortality Projections Based on Forecasted Declines in Economic Growth
(BMJ Publishing Group, Ltd., 2021-08) Shapira, Gil; de Walque, Damien; Friedman, Jed
While COVID-19 has a relatively small direct impact on infant mortality, the pandemic is expected to indirectly increase mortality of this vulnerable group in low-income and middle-income countries through its effects on the economy and health system performance. Previous studies projected indirect mortality by modelling how hypothesized disruptions in health services will affect health outcomes. We provide alternative projections, relying on modelling the relationship between aggregate income shocks and mortality. The findings underscore the vulnerability of infants to the negative income shocks such as those imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. While efforts towards prevention and treatment of COVID-19 remain paramount, the global community should also strengthen social safety nets and assure continuity of essential health services.