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Aldayarov, Mirlan

Global Practice on Energy & Extractives
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Global Practice on Energy & Extractives
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Last updated: February 25, 2025
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Mirlan Aldayarov is a Senior Energy Specialist in the Energy and Extractives Global Practice at the World Bank, where he leads energy sector investment operations and analytical work. Mirlan is currently in the Sub-Saharan Africa region and has previous experience in Europe and Central Asia and South Asia regions. His focus includes energy markets and institutions, power sector reforms, regional integration, and power trade.

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    South Africa Policy Package, Priority 2: Delivering Quality and Climate-Friendly Infrastructure
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-25) Aritua, Bernard; Aldayarov, Mirlan; Baez, Javier; Morisset, Jacques
    The new political context emerging from the May 2024 elections provides a unique opportunity for South Africa. The alignment of economic and political incentives, in the sense that improving the economy is essential for gaining political power, offers a platform to launch a decisive transformation process, even if there is not yet an agreement on which economic reforms to implement. Such alignment was key behind the successful economic transformation of China in the early 1980s, Vietnam in the late 1980s and 1990s, Poland in the 2010s, and India in the early 2020s. Those successes were anchored on a development bargain, whereby the country’s elites shifted from protecting their own positions to gambling on a growth-based future. This report offers pragmatic policy options, tailored for South African policymakers who want to obtain short-term results, while creating momentum for structural reforms, resume growth, and improve the overall welfare of their citizens, especially the most disadvantaged.
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    Stuck in Transition: Reform Experiences and Challenges Ahead in the Kazakhstan Power Sector
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-02-22) Aldayarov, Mirlan; Dobozi, Istvan; Nikolakakis, Thomas
    The large-scale transformation of Kazakhstan’s power sector following independence in 1991 was reflected by the country’s move toward liberalizing the market and implementing sector regulation. As an early adopter of a liberalized multimarket model consisting of bilateral, spot, balancing, ancillary, and capacity submarkets Kazakhstan’s power sector was regarded a market reform leader among countries of the former Soviet Union, having achieved a much improved supply and demand balance and service quality. However, despite the noteworthy headway, sector reforms remain predominantly as unfinished business. The excess generation capacity that was inherited from the former Soviet Union at a time when the “energy-only” market prices were too low to attract serious investors has masked the need to reflect on the long-term outlook of the country’s power production. As the investment crunch unfolded in the mid-2000s, a diverging concern almost immediately arose; that is, the capacity additions of existing and planned generations may not be sufficient to keep pace with the perpetuating and significant increase in the demand for power. Instead of applying market mechanisms to allow prices to rise and reflect the underlying supply and demand gap, the GoK addressed the issue by implementing administrative, command-and-control measures. This study draws on the World Bank’s long-standing engagement in Kazakhstan’s energy sector and a number of recent technical assistance and advisory support activities. The study aims to (i) objectively identify the principal challenges faced by the Kazakhstan power sector in its ongoing transition and outlining potential policy options; and (ii) draw lessons from Kazakhstan’s experience in sector reforms for the broader international audience. The study covers broader sector issues including long-term least-cost power system planning, supply and demand balancing, tariff setting, market structure, and integration of renewable energy.