Person:
Mealy, Penny

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Last updated: March 31, 2025
Biography
Penny Mealy is a senior economist at the World Bank, a research associate at the Institute for New Economic Thinking and the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, an adjunct senior research fellow at SoDa Labs at the Monash Business School, and an external applied complexity fellow at the Santa Fe Institute. Her work applies various methods from complex systems and data science to analyze the interrelated challenges of climate change and economic development. Her research has developed novel, data-driven approaches for analyzing structural change, occupational mobility and the future of work, and the transition to the green economy. She has held various research fellow roles at the Oxford Martin School; the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment; the Bennett Institute for Public Policy at Cambridge University; and SoDa Labs, Monash University. She has also frequently advised international organizations, governments, and businesses on green growth and development strategies. She completed a PhD at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at Oxford University.

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Publication
    Climate Policies are Path-Dependent: Implications for Policy Sequencing and Feasibility
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-31) Mealy, Penny; Ganslmeier, Michael; Hallegatte, Stephane
    Although the feasibility of introducing climate policies underpins global efforts to curb climate change, there has been limited analysis estimating the likelihood of introducing specific policies in different country contexts. Drawing on a dataset of climate policies introduced globally over the past 50 years, this paper explores patterns in climate policy adoption to quantify policy feasibility across countries. In constructing a ‘Climate Policy Space’ network based on the co-occurrence of policies across countries, the paper shows that climate policy adoption is path-dependent: countries are significantly more likely to introduce policies that are related to their prior climate policymaking experience. Exploiting this finding, the paper constructs empirically validated ‘Climate Policy Feasibility Frontiers’ which identify policies that are likely to be more feasible and could also increase the probability of the adoption of other policies. Complementing traditional cost-benefit analysis, feasibility frontiers can inform more realistic and strategic climate policy prioritization across countries.
  • Publication
    Within Reach: Navigating the Political Economy of Decarbonization
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-16) Hallegatte, Stéphane; Godinho, Catrina; Rentschler, Jun; Avner, Paolo; Dorband, Ira Irina; Knudsen, Camilla; Lemke, Jana; Mealy, Penny
    Despite global commitments made through the Paris Agreement in 2015 to combat climate change, their translation into national policies has been slow, raising concerns about the feasibility of achieving climate targets. While policies face many obstacles, the political economy is one of the primary impediments to climate action, and urgency to reduce emissions makes slow and gradual approach increasingly insufficient. The report attempts to identify key political economy barriers and explore options to address them through the 4i Framework, considering how institutions, interests, ideas, and influence affect the political economy. The report offers a practical guide to help countries address political economy barriers when implementing climate policies with three prongs: (1) Climate Governance: governments can adapt their institutional framework, in ways that fit with the pre-existing political economy and moving from opportunistic and unstable to strategic and stable climate institutions. Establishing strategic climate governance institutions – such as climate change framework laws, long-term strategies, or just transition frameworks - can alter the political economy, set clear objectives, improve coordination across actors, and improve the ability to monitor progress and hold decisionmakers accountable. (2) Policy Sequencing: policies can be prioritized and sequenced based on dynamic efficiency, considering not only the economic costs and benefits, but also their feasibility and long-term impact on the political economy. The Climate Policy Feasibility Frontier tool can help identify policies that can overcome short-term political economy obstacles, and at the same time improve capacities and change the political economy to facilitate further climate action. (3) Policy Design and Engagement, considers the effective implementation of climate reforms by tactically navigating political economy constraints. This involves engaging citizens to create process legitimacy and reducing and managing distributional effects, not only across but also within income groups.
  • Publication
    Turning Risks into Reward: Diversifying the Global Value Chains of Decarbonization Technologies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-02-07) Rosenow, Samuel Kaspar; Mealy, Penny
    Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 requires unprecedented scaling up in the global deployment of critical decarbonization technologies, such as solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and electric vehicles (EVs). This challenge is currently rife with risks and rewards. With global pro-duction perceived to be concentrated in a small number of countries, mitigating against possible supply-side risks has become an urgent policy priority for many countries. At the same time, these technologies’ high-growth potential offer lucrative rewards for countries able to strategically position themselves to produce requisite materials, compo¬nents or assemble final products. As green industrial policies have become an increasingly popular tool for shoring up supply chains and stimulating production in key green sectors, this paper presents a data-driven framework for identifying which countries could have key strengths and latent comparative advantages in the production of solar PV, wind turbines and EVs. It constructs a new dataset of traded products, components, and materials associated with decarbonization technologies and develops new indices capturing countries’ current export strengths and future diversification potential in the global value chains of these technologies. It also highlights products with supply risks due to high market concentration levels and those with development rewards in terms of their potential for growth, knowledge spillovers, and technological upgrading. Our analysis suggests that there is plenty of opportunity to diversify these value chains across a larger number of countries and reduce risks associated with reliance on only a few countries.