Person: Spatafora, Nikola
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Economic Growth, International Trade
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Last updated: January 31, 2023
Biography
Nikola Spatafora is Senior Economist at the IMF Institute for Capacity Development. He previously served in the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific region. His research interests and publications focus on economic growth, structural transformation, international trade, and remittances. He has published widely, including in the Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, IMF World Economic Outlook, and World Bank Global Economic Prospects. His research has also been featured in The Economist, Financial Times, and Wall Street Journal.
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Publication Export Quality in Advanced and Developing Economies: Evidence from a New Data Set(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-09) Henn, Christian; Papageorgiou, Chris; Romero, Jose Manuel; Spatafora, NikolaThis paper develops new estimates of export quality, based on bilateral data, which are far more extensive than previous efforts. The data cover 166 countries and hundreds of products over 1962-2014. The analysis finds that quality upgrading is particularly rapid during the early stages of development. There is significant cross-country heterogeneity in the growth rate of quality. Within any given product line, quality converges over time to the world frontier. Institutional quality, liberal trade policies, foreign direct investment inflows, and human capital all promote quality upgrading, although their impacts vary across sectors. The results suggest that reducing barriers to entry into new sectors can allow economies to benefit from rapid quality convergence over time.Publication Diversification, Growth, and Volatility in Asia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-07) Papageorgiou, Chris; Spatafora, Nikola; Wang, KeEconomic development critically involves diversification and structural transformation—that is, the continued, dynamic reallocation of resources from less productive to more productive sectors and activities. This paper documents that, over an extended period, developing Asia has on average been particularly successful in diversifying its exports, particularly in comparison with Sub-Saharan Africa. Much of the progress has occurred through diversification along the ‘extensive margin,’ that is, through entry into completely new products. In addition, developing Asia has on average benefited significantly from quality upgrading, helping it capitalize on already existing comparative advantages. Yet, agricultural and natural resources tend to have lower potential for quality upgrading than manufactures. Therefore, for lower-income “frontier” countries, diversification into products with longer “quality ladders” may be a necessary first step before large gains from quality improvement can be reaped.Publication Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-03) Bettin, Giulia; Presbitero, Andrea F.; Spatafora, NikolaThis paper examines how international remittances are affected by structural characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, and adverse shocks in both source and recipient economies. The paper exploits a novel, rich panel data set, covering bilateral remittances from 103 Italian provinces to 87 developing countries over the period 2005-2011. Remittances are negatively correlated with the business cycle in recipient countries and increase especially strongly in response to adverse exogenous shocks, such as natural disasters or large terms-of-trade declines. Financial development in the source economy, which eases access to financial services for migrants and reduces transaction costs, is positively associated with remittances. Conversely, recipient-country financial development is negatively associated with remittances, suggesting that remittances help alleviate credit constraints.Publication Remittances: Transaction Costs, Determinants, and Informal Flows(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-09) Freund, Caroline; Spatafora, NikolaRecorded workers' remittances to developing countries have grown rapidly, to more than $100 billion in 2004, bringing increasing attention to these flows as a potential tool for development. But even these statistics are likely to significantly understate true remittances, as a large share is believed to flow through informal channels. Estimates of the importance of the informal sector vary widely, ranging from 35 percent to 250 percent of total remittances. The primary motivation of the authors is to develop the first empirical methodology to estimate informal flows. They use insights from the literature on shadow economies and empirically estimate informal remittances for more than 100 countries using historical data on the balance of payments (BOP), migration, transaction costs, and country characteristics. Their results imply that informal remittances amount to about 35-75 percent of official remittances to developing countries. There is significant regional variation: informal remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe and Central Asia are relatively high, while those to East Asia and the Pacific are relatively low. These estimates are supplemented with detailed household survey data on remittance receipts in a number of countries. The results also shed light on the determinants of recorded remittances and the associated fees in the formal sector. The authors find that the stock of migrants in OECD countries is the primary determinant of remittances. In addition, money transfer fees and the presence of dual exchange rates reduce the share of remittances reported in national accounts. In turn, transaction costs are systematically related to concentration in the banking sector, lack of financial depth, and exchange rate volatility. There is also evidence that remittances are misrecorded in the BOP as "errors and omissions."Publication Remittances, Transaction Costs, and Informality(2008) Freund, Caroline; Spatafora, NikolaRecorded workers' remittances to developing countries reached $167 billion in 2005, bringing increasing attention to these flows as a potential tool for development. In this paper, we explore the determinants of remittances and their associated transaction costs. We find that recorded remittances depend positively on the stock of migrants and negatively on transfer costs and exchange rate restrictions. In turn, transfer costs are lower when financial systems are more developed and exchange rates less volatile. The negative impact of transactions costs on remittances suggests that migrants either refrain from sending money home or else remit through informal channels when costs are high. We provide evidence from household surveys supportive of a sizeable informal sector.