Nayyar, Gaurav

Person:
Nayyar, Gaurav

Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions

Fields of Specialization

Economic growth, Structural transformation, India, Development Economics, International Economics

ORCID

0000-0002-2523-1679

External Links

RePEc
Google Scholar
Brookings Institution

Departments

Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions

Last updated: December 20, 2024

Biography

Gaurav Nayyar is a Senior Economist in the Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Vice Presidency at the World Bank, where he joined as a Young Professional in 2013. Previously, he was an Economics Affairs Officer in the Economic Research Division of the World Trade Organization, where he co-led the World Trade Report 2013, Factors Shaping the Future of World Trade. Gaurav’s research interests lie primarily in the areas of economic growth, structural transformation, trade, industrialization, and firm productivity, and he has published in a variety of academic journals on these issues. His previous books include Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development (with Mary Hallward-Driemeier), and The Service Sector in India’s Development (published by Cambridge University Press). Gaurav holds a D.Phil in Economics from the University of Oxford, where he was a Dorothy Hodgkin Scholar. His other alma maters include the London School of Economics and Political Science, the University of Cambridge, and St. Stephen’s College, University of Delhi.

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Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 19

Is the U.S. Friend-Shoring, Nearshoring, or Reshoring? Evidence from Greenfield Investment Announcements
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-20) Mulabdic, Alen; Nayyar, Gaurav
This paper examines the evolution of greenfield investment announcements—both domestic and international—for US multinational companies in response to recent global shocks. The results indicate an intensification of reshoring and nearshoring activities by US companies, especially following the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. This shift is estimated to have doubled the number of direct jobs associated with greenfield investment announcements in the US and its neighboring countries. The paper finds no evidence that US companies are adopting a friend-shoring strategy by investing more in military allies. The paper suggests that US supply chains are likely to become less global and more regional as these investments become operational.
Digitalization and Inclusive Growth: A Review of the Evidence
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-15) Nayyar, Gaurav; Pleninger, Regina; Vorisek, Dana; Yu, Shu
This paper summarizes the evidence on the growth and distributional effects of digitalization through four channels: average productivity growth, employment and wages, access to markets, and government finances. First, digitalization has increased average productivity growth by better matching demand and supply, improving the efficiency of business processes, and boosting the accumulation of intangible capital. For developing economies, the productivity gains from “smart” automation and artificial intelligence that reduce labor costs may be lower than from the previous wave of information and communications technologies, which improved the matching of sellers to buyers by reducing search and coordination costs. Second, there is little evidence that use of information and communications technologies has reduced aggregate employment or resulted in job polarization in developing economies, unlike the experience of advanced economies. However, distributional challenges within countries might increase to the extent that “smart” robots and artificial intelligence need complementary skills. Third, digitalization has enhanced market access for rural households, small firms, and unbanked populations in developing economies through improving information flows. Fourth, digitalization has improved the efficiency of government spending on, and revenue mobilization for, public services and welfare programs through its effect on transparency, accountability, simplification of bureaucratic processes, and adoption of new delivery models.
Digitalization, Remote Work and Firm Resilience: Evidence from the COVID-19 Shock
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16) Constantinescu , Cristina; Grover, Arti; Nayyar, Gaurav
Using Business Pulse Survey data for 61 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper presents novel findings on remote work, enabled by digitalization, as a source of resilience for firms. The results suggest the following. First, firms in sectors with greater amenability to remote work experienced a smaller adverse impact of the pandemic in countries with better digital infrastructure. Second, these effects apply to both exporting and non-exporting firms. Third, there are differences across sectors. Among firms in the manufacturing sector, the benefits of remote work in countries with better digital infrastructure accrue more to exporters relative to non-exporters, thereby reflecting a premium to exporting. This exporting premium is not observed in the service sector, which largely comprises firms in non-knowledge intensive services in the sample. Fourth, the effects of the amenability to work remotely in countries with better digital infrastructure do not dissipate over time.
At Your Service?: The Promise of Services-Led Development
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-09-15) Nayyar, Gaurav; Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Davies, Elwyn
Throughout history, industrialization has been synonymous with development. However, the trend of premature deindustrialization and the spread of automation technologies associated with Industry 4.0 has raised concerns that the development model based on export-led manufacturing seen in East Asia will be harder for hitherto less industrialized countries to replicate in the future. Can services-led development be an alternative? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the features of manufacturing that were considered uniquely conducive for productivity growth - such as international trade, scale economies, inter-sectoral linkages, and innovation - are increasingly shared by the services sector. But services are not monolithic. The twin gains of productivity growth and large-scale job creation for relatively low-skilled workers are less likely to come together in any given services subsector. The promise of services-led development in the future will be strengthened to the extent that technological change reduces the trade-off between productivity and jobs, and growth opportunities in services with potential for high productivity do not depend on a manufacturing base. Considering technological change and linkages between sectors while differentiating across types of services, this book assesses the scope of a services-driven development model and policy directions that maximize its potential.
Gearing Up for the Future of Manufacturing in Bangladesh
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-21) Gu, Yunfan; Nayyar, Gaurav; Sharma, Siddharth
Labor-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing driven by the ready-made garments industry has transformed Bangladesh's economy. But with automation, changing trade patterns and servicification reducing the importance of wage costs globally, the creation of more sustainable jobs in the manufacturing sector now needs the upgradation of firms' capabilities and technology adoption. Drawing on the World Bank's "Bangladesh Firm-level Adoption of Technology Survey", this report shows that there is significant scope to improve the manufacturing sector's performance and future prospects by promoting the adoption of better technologies in firms. It discusses how Bangladesh can achieve this aim through policies that address informational barriers to the acquisition of capabilities in firms, leverage international connectivity for technology diffusion, and strengthen key markets and institutions that underpin firms investment in technology.
India's Services Sector Growth: The Impact of Services Trade on Non-tradable Services
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Avdiu, Besart; Bagavathinathan, Karan Singh; Chaurey, Ritam; Nayyar, Gaurav
This paper examines the effect of tradable services growth on non-tradable services across Indian districts. The analysis uses a shift-share “Bartik-type” instrumental variable, which relies on changes in foreign demand shocks for tradable services, weighted by the initial district employment shares in tradable services. Using multiple rounds of the Indian Economic Censuses, the findings show that an increase in tradable services employment leads to an increase in non-tradable services employment and increases the number of firms in non-tradable services. The evidence suggests that this positive impact is due to an increase in consumer demand for local non-tradable services that results from the growth in tradable services employment, and not due to sectoral linkages between tradable and non-tradable services sectors. The employment impact is much larger for female workers compared to male workers, and for the number of female-owned firms relative to male-owned firms. Further, the employment impact is only significant for small non-tradable service firms.
Europe 4.0: Addressing the Digital Dilemma
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-09) Fengler, Wolfgang; Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Nayyar, Gaurav; Gill, Indermit; Aridi, Anwar
This report examines the underlying economics of different types of digital technologies. It highlights what the new drivers of change are, why the dynamics with this latest round of technological change may be different, and what the distributional impacts may be within and across countries. It then examines the evidence for how different digital technologies are – or are not – contributing to competitiveness and opportunities for small and young firms, and firms in less developed areas, and what can be done about it. Europe faces a digital dilemma. European firms are particularly strong in operational technologies such as smart robotics and 3D printing. While this helps Europe's competitiveness, it also widens the divide between large and small firms, and leading and lagging regions. On the other hand, digital technologies, such as transactional technologies or matching platforms, have the greatest potential for market inclusion and convergence, but this is where Europe remains less competitive. The report lays out how Europe 4.0 is attainable. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has highlighted the importance of the data economy — and raised the risks if the digital dilemma is not addressed. This report provides a framework, evidence and recommendations on how governments can respond. Europe has the chance to attain a dynamic and inclusive technologically enhanced future, it should take that chance.
Policies to Support Businesses through the COVID-19 Shock: A Firm-Level Perspective
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01) Lopez Cordova, Jose Ernesto; Cirera, Xavier; Cruz, Marcio; Okechukwu Maduko, Franklin; Davies, Elwyn; Grover, Arti; Reyes Ortega, Santiago; Iacovone, Leonardo; Torres, Jesica; Medvedev, Denis; Nayyar, Gaurav
Relying on a novel dataset covering more than 120,000 firms in 60 countries, this paper con-tributes to the debate about D policies to support businesses through the COVID-19 pandemic. While governments around the world have implemented a wide range of policy support measures, evidence on the reach of these policies, the alignment of measures with firm needs, and their targeting and effectiveness remains scarce. This paper provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of these issues, focusing primarily on the developing economies. It shows that policy reach has been limited, especially for the more vulnerable firms and countries, and identifies mismatches between policies provided and policies most sought. It also provides some indicative evidence regarding mistargeting of policies and their effectiveness in addressing liquidity constraints and preventing layoffs. This assessment provides some early guidance to policymakers on tailoring their COVID-19 business support packages and points to new directions in data and research efforts needed to guide policy responses to the current pandemic and future crises.
Trouble in the Making?: The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-09-20) Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Nayyar, Gaurav
Globalization and new technologies are impacting the desirability and feasibility of what has historically been the most successful development strategy. Manufacturing has been seen as special, promising both productivity gains and job creation. But trade is slowing. Global value chains (GVC) are maturing. Robotics, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and the Internet of things are shifting what makes locations attractive for production and threatening significant disruptions in employment. There is a risk of increased polarization, within countries and across countries. Shifting the attention from high-income countries, this report takes the perspective of developing countries to ask: -- If new technologies reduce the importance of low-wage labor, how can developing countries compete? -- Do countries need to industrialize to develop? -- How can countries at different levels of development take advantage of new opportunities? Development strategies need to broaden. Different manufacturing sub-sectors can still provide productivity growth or jobs; fewer can deliver both. Many of the pro-development characteristics traditionally associated with manufacturing--tradability, scale, innovation, learning-by-doing--are increasingly features of services. With faster diffusion of technology, it will be all the more important for countries to improve the enabling environment, remain open to trade, and support capabilities of firms and workers to ensure future prosperity is shared.
When Face-to-Face Interactions Become an Occupational Hazard: Jobs in the Time of COVID-19
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) Avdiu, Besart; Nayyar, Gaurav
There is a crisis of demand brewing around the globe as social distancing becomes the norm to counter the COVID-19 outbreak. So, which parts of the economy are most in the line of fire? Looking at jobs that can be done at home or that require a high degree of face-to-face interactions with consumers can capture complementary but distinct mechanisms to assess this vulnerability. This paper uses data on 900 job titles from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database for the United States to demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity in vulnerability across industries, income groups, and gender. First, industries vary in whether they emphasize face-to-face interactions and home-based work and the two do not always go hand-in-hand. Second, occupations that are less amenable to home-based work are largely concentrated among the lower wage deciles. Third, a larger share of women's employment is accounted for by occupations that are intensive in face-to-face interactions.