Nayyar, Gaurav

Person:
Nayyar, Gaurav

Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions

Author Name Variants

Nayyar, Gaurav, Nayyar, G.

Fields of Specialization

Economic growth, Structural transformation, India, Development Economics, International Economics

ORCID

0000-0002-2523-1679

External Links

RePEc
Google Scholar
Brookings Institution

Departments

Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions

Last updated:November 28, 2025

Biography

Gaurav Nayyar is a Senior Economist in the Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Vice Presidency at the World Bank, where he joined as a Young Professional in 2013. Previously, he was an Economics Affairs Officer in the Economic Research Division of the World Trade Organization, where he co-led the World Trade Report 2013, Factors Shaping the Future of World Trade. Gaurav’s research interests lie primarily in the areas of economic growth, structural transformation, trade, industrialization, and firm productivity, and he has published in a variety of academic journals on these issues. His previous books include Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development (with Mary Hallward-Driemeier), and The Service Sector in India’s Development (published by Cambridge University Press). Gaurav holds a D.Phil in Economics from the University of Oxford, where he was a Dorothy Hodgkin Scholar. His other alma maters include the London School of Economics and Political Science, the University of Cambridge, and St. Stephen’s College, University of Delhi.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/10986/39039

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Publication Search Results

Now showing1 - 10 of 24

Digitalization and Inclusive Growth: A Review of the Evidence
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-15) Nayyar, Gaurav; Pleninger, Regina; Vorisek, Dana; Yu, Shu
This paper summarizes the evidence on the growth and distributional effects of digitalization through four channels: average productivity growth, employment and wages, access to markets, and government finances. First, digitalization has increased average productivity growth by better matching demand and supply, improving the efficiency of business processes, and boosting the accumulation of intangible capital. For developing economies, the productivity gains from “smart” automation and artificial intelligence that reduce labor costs may be lower than from the previous wave of information and communications technologies, which improved the matching of sellers to buyers by reducing search and coordination costs. Second, there is little evidence that use of information and communications technologies has reduced aggregate employment or resulted in job polarization in developing economies, unlike the experience of advanced economies. However, distributional challenges within countries might increase to the extent that “smart” robots and artificial intelligence need complementary skills. Third, digitalization has enhanced market access for rural households, small firms, and unbanked populations in developing economies through improving information flows. Fourth, digitalization has improved the efficiency of government spending on, and revenue mobilization for, public services and welfare programs through its effect on transparency, accountability, simplification of bureaucratic processes, and adoption of new delivery models.
Growth, Structural Transformation and Carbon Emissions
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-15) Mulabdic, Alen; Nayyar, Gaurav; Stapleton, Katherine
The environmental Kuznets curve postulates an inverted-U relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth. And economic growth has been synonymous with structural transformation. How do patterns of growth and structural transformation relate to carbon emissions? Based on data across almost 100 countries between 1960 and 2017, we find that the movement of workers into the manufacturing and services sectors is associated with a higher carbon emissions intensity of GDP. However, this positive association diminishes at higher shares of employment in both the manufacturing sector and modern, knowledge-intensive services. The diminishing positive association between emissions intensity and structural transformation towards these sectors is more discernible for developing economies compared with advanced economies. Further, based on sector-specific carbon emissions across 66 countries between 1995 and 2018, we find evidence of convergence in the carbon emissions intensity of production across countries in all sectors, with the potential for further reductions in developing economies, especially given relatively high indirect carbon emissions through inter-sectoral linkages.
Is the U.S. Friend-Shoring, Nearshoring, or Reshoring? Evidence from Greenfield Investment Announcements
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-20) Mulabdic, Alen; Nayyar, Gaurav
This paper examines the evolution of greenfield investment announcements—both domestic and international—for US multinational companies in response to recent global shocks. The results indicate an intensification of reshoring and nearshoring activities by US companies, especially following the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. This shift is estimated to have doubled the number of direct jobs associated with greenfield investment announcements in the US and its neighboring countries. The paper finds no evidence that US companies are adopting a friend-shoring strategy by investing more in military allies. The paper suggests that US supply chains are likely to become less global and more regional as these investments become operational.
Digitalization, Remote Work and Firm Resilience: Evidence from the COVID-19 Shock
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16) Constantinescu , Cristina; Grover, Arti; Nayyar, Gaurav
Using Business Pulse Survey data for 61 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper presents novel findings on remote work, enabled by digitalization, as a source of resilience for firms. The results suggest the following. First, firms in sectors with greater amenability to remote work experienced a smaller adverse impact of the pandemic in countries with better digital infrastructure. Second, these effects apply to both exporting and non-exporting firms. Third, there are differences across sectors. Among firms in the manufacturing sector, the benefits of remote work in countries with better digital infrastructure accrue more to exporters relative to non-exporters, thereby reflecting a premium to exporting. This exporting premium is not observed in the service sector, which largely comprises firms in non-knowledge intensive services in the sample. Fourth, the effects of the amenability to work remotely in countries with better digital infrastructure do not dissipate over time.
At Your Service?: The Promise of Services-Led Development
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-09-15) Nayyar, Gaurav; Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Davies, Elwyn
Throughout history, industrialization has been synonymous with development. However, the trend of premature deindustrialization and the spread of automation technologies associated with Industry 4.0 has raised concerns that the development model based on export-led manufacturing seen in East Asia will be harder for hitherto less industrialized countries to replicate in the future. Can services-led development be an alternative? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the features of manufacturing that were considered uniquely conducive for productivity growth - such as international trade, scale economies, inter-sectoral linkages, and innovation - are increasingly shared by the services sector. But services are not monolithic. The twin gains of productivity growth and large-scale job creation for relatively low-skilled workers are less likely to come together in any given services subsector. The promise of services-led development in the future will be strengthened to the extent that technological change reduces the trade-off between productivity and jobs, and growth opportunities in services with potential for high productivity do not depend on a manufacturing base. Considering technological change and linkages between sectors while differentiating across types of services, this book assesses the scope of a services-driven development model and policy directions that maximize its potential.
Services-Led Growth: Better Prospects after the Pandemic?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03-28) Nayyar, Gaurav; Davies, Elwyn
The service sector accounted for two-thirds of economic growth in emerging market and developing economies over the past three decades. It consists of a wide range of activities, ranging from high-skilled offshorable services, such as information and communications technology (ICT) and professional services, to low-skilled “contact” services, such as retail and hospitality. The pandemic disrupted many low-skilled contact services that typically require face-to-face interactions between providers and consumers. High-skilled offshorable services were the least affected owing to the use of digital technology that enabled remote delivery. Increased digitalization has improved prospects for scale economies and innovation in the service sector that were previously constrained by the need for physical proximity and the lack of opportunities to augment labor with capital. Policies to support the diffusion of digital technologies could therefore further raise the growth potential of the service sector. Policies to improve market access for, and skills in, ICT and professional services could ease important constraints on growth opportunities in these high-skilled offshorable services that have best withstood the pandemic. The same holds true for policies, including regulatory reforms, that promote investment in low-skilled contact services, such as transportation, which have important linkages with the wider economy.
Spillovers in ICT Adoption from Formal to Informal Firms: Evidence from Zambia
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-22) Jolevski, Filip; Nayyar, Gaurav; Pleninger, Regina; Yu, Shu
This paper examines spillovers in the use of digital technologies from formal to informal businesses by exploring differences in geographic proximity. Using a unique set of geocoded data from the 2019 World Bank Enterprise Surveys in Zambia, the findings indicate that closer geographic proximity to formal firms is associated with a significantly higher likelihood of digital adoption by informal businesses. The finding holds for various types of digital technologies, ranging from computers, tablets, and cell phones to mobile money transactions, and is robust to various measures of geographic proximity and model modifications. The results vary by the owner’s level of education and business age. The results also suggest that the spillovers in information and communications technology use can be explained by competition in the local market and learning through enhanced interactions.
Gearing Up for the Future of Manufacturing in Bangladesh
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-21) Gu, Yunfan; Nayyar, Gaurav; Sharma, Siddharth
Labor-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing driven by the ready-made garments industry has transformed Bangladesh's economy. But with automation, changing trade patterns and servicification reducing the importance of wage costs globally, the creation of more sustainable jobs in the manufacturing sector now needs the upgradation of firms' capabilities and technology adoption. Drawing on the World Bank's "Bangladesh Firm-level Adoption of Technology Survey", this report shows that there is significant scope to improve the manufacturing sector's performance and future prospects by promoting the adoption of better technologies in firms. It discusses how Bangladesh can achieve this aim through policies that address informational barriers to the acquisition of capabilities in firms, leverage international connectivity for technology diffusion, and strengthen key markets and institutions that underpin firms investment in technology.
Firms’ Digitalization during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Tale of Two Stories
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-01) Avalos, Edgar; Cirera, Xavier; Cruz, Marcio; Iacovone, Leonardo; Medvedev, Denis; Nayyar, Gaurav; Ortega, Santiago Reyes
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the digital transformation of businesses. Using a unique global panel dataset, this paper documents the patterns of digital adoption during the pandemic across firms in 57 (mostly developing) countries. The data show the tale of two stories. On one hand, the pandemic drove firms to increase the use of digital platforms and invest in digital solutions. On the other hand, there is evidence that the digital divide increased. There remain substantial gaps between small and large firms as well as across sectors, particularly for new investments in digital solutions. Firms that did not use any digital platform or channel before the pandemic, also lagged in their response to the pandemic, increasing the gap with those that were more digitally ready. Moreover, although the share of online sales across firms for all size groups increased, there is a growing concentration of online sales among top firms. The paper discusses some of the factors associated with this increase in the digital divide and find that changes in digitalization remain even after mobility restrictions have eased. The analysis suggests that the pandemic has accelerated digitalization, but some firms disproportionately benefited from the digital transformation, potentially increasing the digital divide.
India's Services Sector Growth: The Impact of Services Trade on Non-tradable Services
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Avdiu, Besart; Bagavathinathan, Karan Singh; Chaurey, Ritam; Nayyar, Gaurav
This paper examines the effect of tradable services growth on non-tradable services across Indian districts. The analysis uses a shift-share “Bartik-type” instrumental variable, which relies on changes in foreign demand shocks for tradable services, weighted by the initial district employment shares in tradable services. Using multiple rounds of the Indian Economic Censuses, the findings show that an increase in tradable services employment leads to an increase in non-tradable services employment and increases the number of firms in non-tradable services. The evidence suggests that this positive impact is due to an increase in consumer demand for local non-tradable services that results from the growth in tradable services employment, and not due to sectoral linkages between tradable and non-tradable services sectors. The employment impact is much larger for female workers compared to male workers, and for the number of female-owned firms relative to male-owned firms. Further, the employment impact is only significant for small non-tradable service firms.