Vostroknutova, Ekaterina

Person:
Vostroknutova, Ekaterina

Global Practice on Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management, The World Bank

Author Name Variants

Vostroknutova, Ekaterina

Fields of Specialization

economic growth, fiscal and monetary policy

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Global Practice on Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management, The World Bank

Last updated: June 27, 2025

Biography

Ekaterina (Katia) Vostroknutova is a Senior Economist at the World Bank’s Latin America and the Caribbean Region. She holds a PhD in Economics from the European University Institute, in addition to a degree in Applied Mathematics from the Moscow State University and a Masters in Economics from the European University at St. Petersburg. Katia’s fields of interest include microeconomic foundations of economic growth and fiscal and monetary policy.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 13

Competition and Productivity Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Vostroknutova, Ekaterina; Sampi, James; Jooste, Charl; Araujo, Jorge Thompson
Competition is a core element of economic growth, but empirical evidence on how competition affects productivity is often limited. Competition and Productivity Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean presents new empirical research that shows how competition policy in the region has effectively boosted productivity growth and improved market outcomes. “A must-read if you are interested in understanding the relationship between competition law, competition enforcement, growth, and productivity in Latin America. A report rich with data, analysis, and recommendations that will guide policy makers in the region.” —Antonio Capobianco Deputy Head of Competition Division, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) “This is a very important work both for economists and competition law scholars, the latter of whom have long taken for granted that antitrust enforcement and increased competition contribute to economic growth. While journal articles have explored this relationship, this is one of the first books to examine the issue deeply and systematically. I only wish that this volume had been published earlier, as it would have certainly benefited my own work on the subject tremendously.” —Thomas Cheng Professor and Associate Dean, Faculty of Law, University of Hong Kong, and author of Competition Law in Developing Countries “It is critical to understand how competition and competition policy affect productivity growth, the key to economic development. This book makes big strides forward in understanding these connections. It takes advantage of novel antitrust enforcement and other legal data to build evidence-based insights into how competition policies can best encourage productivity growth. There is much to be learned inside.” —Chad Syverson George C. Tiao Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Review, April 2024 - Competition: The Missing Ingredient for Growth?
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-10) Maloney, William F.; Garriga, Pablo; Meléndez, Marcela; Morales, Raúl; Jooste, Charl; Sampi, James; Araujo, Jorge Thompson; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina
Latin America and the Caribbean has made slow but consistent progress addressing the imbalances induced by the pandemic in an international environment that is just now showing signs of stabilizing. Despite favorable macroeconomic management, high interest rates and fiscal imbalances remain challenging while growth rates remain lackluster due to long-standing structural issues. Looking forward, an aging workforce and rising violence will increasingly complicate policy. This report focuses particularly on weak competitive forces as a source of low productivity, low growth, and low welfare in LAC. It emphasizes the need for effective competition institutions, pro-competition regulatory frameworks, complementary policies to improve the capabilities of workers and firms, and enhanced innovation systems, to prepare local industries to reach the technological frontier and face global competition. Furthermore, the report underscores the need for reforms to prevent large businesses from exerting undue political influence over policy decisions.
Antitrust Enforcement and Firm Performance: Evidence from Colombia’s Sugar Market
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-27) Sampi, James; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina
This paper examines the impact of two interventions by Colombia's competition authority to enforce competition in the sugar market on firm performance in downstream sectors. Using an exogenous identification strategy, the analysis finds that following the competition authority’s intervention against collusion in 2015, downstream firms expanded production but did not increase productivity or profitability margins, consistent with the removal of supply constraints imposed by cartelization. In contrast, the 2011 intervention against abuse of dominance increased the profitability margins of downstream firms, without altering production scale or labor intensity, consistent with input price reductions and stable consumer demand. Robustness checks, including propensity score matching, confirm the reliability of these findings. The results show that antitrust enforcement works through different channels, depending on the type of anti-competitive behavior. The results also highlight the importance of targeted and continuous antitrust enforcement in addressing market distortions.
Endogenous Institutions and Economic Policy
(World Bank, 2023-11-21) Robinson, James A.; Vostroknutov, Alexander; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina
This paper proposes a new framework to model institutions and institutional change. It shows how moral agents, who strive to cooperate with others, can form institutions that facilitate cooperation. The framework makes it possible to model informal as well as formal institutions as games played by moral agents: when the quality of the government is low and agents are not willing to use its services they will create informal institutions that allow them to cooperate outside the official channels. It is also possible to conceptualize institutions as inclusive or extractive and model institutional change as a consequence of the choice of moral agents among available institutions as time unfolds. With a series of examples of clientelistic networks, the paper shows that the framework can be useful for understanding how and why such networks form and persist. The framework can be used to model any interactions among moral agents, thus giving rise to a wide variety of possible institutional settings.
Identification Properties for Estimating the Impact of Regulation on Markups and Productivity
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01) Sampi, James; Jooste, Charl; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina
This paper addresses several shortcomings in the productivity and markup estimation literature. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, the analysis shows that the methods in Ackerberg, Caves and Frazer (2015) and De Loecker and Warzynski (2012) produce biased estimates of the impact of policy variables on markups and productivity. This bias stems from endogeneity due to the following: (1) the functional form of the production function; (2) the omission of demand shifters; (3) the absence of price information; (4) the violation of the Markov process for productivity; and (5) misspecification when marginal costs are excluded in the estimation. The paper addresses these concerns using a quasi-maximum likelihood approach and a generalized estimator for the production function. It produces unbiased estimates of the impact of regulation on markups and productivity. The paper therefore proposes a work-around solution for the identification problem identified in Bond, Hashemi, Kaplan and Zoch (2020), and an unbiased measure of productivity, by directly accounting for the joint impact of regulation on markups and productivity.
Benchmarking the Determinants of Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-12) Araujo, Jorge Thompson; Brueckner, Markus; Clavijo, Mateo; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina; Wacker, Konstantin M.
The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has seen a decade of remarkable growth and income convergence. Growth has been a key driver for reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity. It has been debated how much of this decade of growth has been driven by policy reforms and how much was due to the favorable external conditions. While external factors were supportive and relevant, the effect of domestic policies was just as relevant for explaining LAC's recent growth performance. The emphasis of domestic policy has shifted from stabilization policies to structural policies. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. The authors analyze growth in LAC using descriptive statistics and growth econometrics. The authors use these results for explaining the pattern of growth in LAC over the last decade, for looking ahead, and to identify potential policy gaps.
Peru - Selected Issues in Fiscal Policy: Taxation and Equity
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06-11) Junquera-Varela, Raúl Félix; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina
This report takes an in-depth look, from a policy perspective, at the trade-offs between increasing tax collection and improving the equity of the fiscal system. As part of this effort, the report places the Peruvian tax system in an international context and considers the key challenges the government is facing in its drive to increase revenue. It also conducts qualitative and quantitative analyses of the impact of taxes and transfers on inequality and on the distribution of income. The report then makes several policy proposals that would increase tax collection without jeopardizing equity, and it then simulates the impacts of these changes on collection and equity. This advice spanned the 2012-2014 period, and included research on several tax policy-related issues, such as legal advice on double-taxation treaties and in-depth analyses of tax exemptions. To keep the focus tight, some of the work is not included in this report. Contributions were originally written in Spanish to provide the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) with timely advice on the subject and were discussed with the counterparts during and immediately after its preparation. As a result of prioritizing this process, two teams focused on different areas of research and were able to contribute to the analytical base behind the ongoing tax reform. The report summarizes the main elements of this process and resulting advice. It comes out at the same time as the finance ministry announces the first set of tax reforms that were informed by this work.
Productivity Growth in Latin American and the Caribbean: Exploring the Macro-Micro Linkages
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-11-01) Thompson Araujo, Jorge; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina; Wacker, Konstantin
This paper brings together the main findings and policy implications of two recent World Bank regional reports on economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: Araujo, Vostroknutova, Wacker and Clavijo, eds. (2016) and Araujo, Vostroknutova, Brueckner, Clavijo, and Wacker (2016). In doing so, the paper focuses on finding the right balance between micro- and macro-inference when thinking about growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper documents the region's growth performance over the past decade, highlighting the roles played by the commodity boom, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms. It notes that, despite faster growth during the first decade of this century, the region failed to achieve sustained convergence towards higher income levels. The paper points out that the persistent income gap could be reduced through: (i) increasing focus on closing the efficiency gap – beyond mere factor accumulation; (ii) eliminating distortions that cause misallocation of resources will also improve the incentives to innovate; (iii) identifying the main country-specific constraints to growth instead of looking for universal recipes; (iv) containing macroeconomic volatility, thereby alleviating the negative impact of persistent poverty on growth; and (v) improving the composition of public spending.
Understanding the Income and Efficiency Gap in Latin America and the Caribbean
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-03-23) Thompson Araujo, Jorge; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina; Wacker, Konstantin M.; Clavijo, Mateo; Thompson Araujo, Jorge; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina; Wacker, Konstantin M.; Clavijo, Mateo
The countries of the Latin America and Caribbean region (LAC), like other emerging economies, have benefited from a decade of remarkable growth and some income per capita convergence towards the United States and other industrialized countries. However, even nearly ten years of solid growth in the first decade of the 21st century could not guarantee that LAC would move on to a sustained long-term income convergence path. In fact, despite this recent progress, LAC still faces a significant per capita income gap with the developed world. The papers in this volume contribute to the ongoing debate on the reasons for this persistent income gap and the potential drivers of convergence, and propose some broad avenues for reform. This volume presents new macro-, sectoral-, and micro-level evidence that: (i) differences in total factor productivity (TFP), or efficiency in using the production factors, such as physical and human capital, explain a large part of LAC's persistent income gap; and (ii) resource misallocation is the main factor behind LAC's large efficiency gap. At the same time, the findings of this volume indicate there is significant room for further economic growth gains from technology adoption and innovation more broadly. In fact, the quality of the available technology in LAC is low, and there is very little innovation. Although firms can use innovation to reach productivity at the global productivity frontier, weak institutions reduce incentives to innovate. This volume also proposes that the main priorities for improving resource allocation and the incentives to innovate include: (i) enhancing market competition in key network industries (transport, financial, telecommunications, logistics, communication and distribution services); (ii) increasing labor market flexibility (including skill-mismatches and social barriers); (iii) removing informational frictions (including complex tax regimes and credit rationing); (iv) strengthening property rights; and (v) improving the rule of law.
Beyond Commodities: The Growth Challenge of Latin America and the Caribbean
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-11-02) Araujo, Jorge Thompson; Vostroknutova, Ekaterina; Brueckner, Markus; Clavijo, Mateo; Wacker, Konstantin M.
Beyond Commodities shows that Latin America and the Caribbean’s growth performance over the last decade cannot be reduced to the commodity boom: growth-promoting reforms that strengthened financial development, increased trade openness and improved infrastructure development also played a significant role and can continue doing so. Based on the econometric analysis of panel data from the 1970-2010 period for 126 countries, the study shows that, while the commodity boom facilitated growth in most of the region, it did not determine it. Domestic pro-growth policies and the maintenance of a sound macro-fiscal framework played a central role in explaining the region’s good performance during last decade. It also shows that new growth “stars” such as Panama, Peru, Colombia and the Dominican Republic emerged during this period. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. Finally, with the worsening of external conditions, the authors conclude that the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean have no choice but to turn their attention to domestic drivers to keep growth going, as the structural reforms agenda remains unfinished.