Person:
Koettl, Johannes
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Social protection and labor; Migration; Health; Long-term care; Aging
Degrees
Departments
Human Development Economics, Europe and Central Asia Region, World Bank
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
January 31, 2023
Biography
Johannes Koettl is a Senior Economist at the Human Development Department of the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia unit (ECSHD) and a Research Fellow at the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). He has been working on issues related to labor markets, migration, health, and social protection at the World Bank since 2004. Previously he completed an M.A. in International Relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and a Ph.D. in Economics at the University of Vienna and the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) Vienna. His current work focuses—among other topics—on aging, informal employment, skills development, and migration.
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 11
-
Publication
Employment Recovery Stalls in Europe and Central Asia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04)Employment recovery stalls in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to recover in most ECA countries, but the recovery remains fragile. Growth prospects remain poor in a number of countries where GDP continues to decline. This slowdown in the economic recovery is also evident at the sub-regional level. Unemployment has stabilized, with an average unemployment rate of 12 percent across the ECA region. Since the start of the crisis, men have been disproportionally hit by unemployment. The recent pace of job creation has not been sufficient to absorb the large pool of unemployed, resulting in growing long-term unemployment. Despite the rise in long-term unemployment, activity rates have increased or remained constant in most countries since 2008. ECA labor markets adjusted to the crisis not only through higher unemployment, but also through fewer work hours. Given the already low levels of employment in the region and a bleak demographic outlook, avoiding labor market detachment among the long-term unemployed, the inactive, and youth is the main challenge for policy makers in the near term. -
Publication
Active Labor Market Programs : How, Why, When, and To What Extent are they Effective?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-12)Active labor market programs (ALMPs) aim to keep workers employed, bring them into employment, increase their productivity and earnings, and improve the functioning of labor markets. ALMPs to retain employment, for example, work-sharing schemes, should be used only for short periods during severe recessions. More cost-effective and useful during recoveries are ALMPs to create employment, which strengthen outsiders labor market attachment and support the outflow out of unemployment. Training programs are especially effective over the long term, particularly the more they target disadvantaged outsiders. ALMPs that improve labor market matching are highly beneficial, but effective only in the short run. ALMPs in general might be more cost effective over the long term (3-10 years) and some may even be self-financing, suggesting that long-term evaluations are needed to better ascertain the impact of individual policies. -
Publication
The Inverting Pyramid : Pension Systems Facing Demographic Challenges in Europe and Central Asia
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-02-12)Pension systems in Europe and Central Asia are facing unprecedented demographic change. While many of the countries in the region have undertaken reforms when the economy faces difficult times, these reforms are frequently reversed when the economy improves. The demographic challenges that the region faces require a sustained effort toward changing the pension system toward something which provides adequate and sustainable benefits. The book documents the increased generosity of pension systems in Europe from their initial inception, noting that the current expectations of the public are based on the most recent round of generosity. The book seeks to show a nontechnical audience that such generosity is neither based on customary practice nor affordable in the future. The increased generosity in the past was only possible because the demographic pyramid was expanding, but as it inverts with fewer young people and more elderly, that generosity will no longer be affordable. Returning to the pension system of the 1970’s will go a long way toward providing adequate and sustainable benefits in the future. Moving to a more sustainable system will require reforms to labor markets, improvements in savings mechanisms, and may require additional public resources. The extent to which a country can undertake reforms in labor markets, savings, and public finances can influence the extent to which its pension system will have to change, with different solutions possible for different countries. But in all cases, the changes that need to be made have to be widely discussed and publicly accepted to prevent reversals. The book hopes to stimulate widespread public discussion of the issue to help countries make sustainable choices with gradual implementation, before they face such daunting challenges that they have to undertake sudden, harsh measures. -
Publication
In From the Shadow : Integrating Europe's Informal Labor
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012)This book is about Magda and Jacek and millions of others like them, who earn a living working full- or part-time in Europe's untaxed markets for goods, services, and labor. Magda was certified as a hairdresser years ago, and she's very proud of the salon apprenticeship she did shortly after. She learned a lot and made good friends but was never fully comfortable working for somebody else. Jacek's clients pay him in cash, and he pays his men in cash as well. He sometimes needs to show a license to get the trade price on parts and materials. But he can keep it up-to-date by declaring only part of what he actually earns to the tax office. This book ventures a general conclusion about what policy makers can do to bring more economic activity in from the shadow: Although it may be necessary to improve the structural incentives created by taxation, social protection policies, and labor market regulation, doing so is not sufficient for substantive improvement to be achieved. To back up this general conclusion, the book presents a large body of evidence indicating that much more than the fairly mechanical incentive structures of taxation, social policy, and labor market regulation is at work in shaping the circumstances that lead people into the shadowy unregulated and untaxed markets for goods, services, and labor. -
Publication
Employment Recovery in Europe and Central Asia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-06)Despite high unemployment in most Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries, people have not withdrawn from the labor market but continue to actively look for jobs. Unemployment increased significantly in ECA countries during the crisis, particularly among youth. However, young people are also the ones benefiting most from the recovery. Labor market recovery remained sluggish up to the third quarter of 2010. Many countries have seen only a slight recovery in unemployment rates, although output is recovering everywhere. Up to the third quarter of 2010, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) upturn in most ECA countries appeared to be driven by increases in productivity and hours worked; however, these are still below pre-crisis levels. This suggests that there is room in most countries for further increases in productivity and hours worked, which could delay the recovery in employment. -
Publication
Setting Incentives for Health Care Providers in Serbia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-07)The Serbian Government plans to reform its provider payment system for health care by setting incentives for providers to improve the quality and efficiency of care. Funds for health care are currently allocated on the basis of the number of staff and beds at health facilities. This encourages health care providers to use more staff and beds to define their budgets but does not reward improvements in productivity, quality of care or health outcomes. -
Publication
Golden Aging: Prospects for Healthy, Active, and Prosperous Aging in Europe and Central Asia
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015-06-16)Compared to other regions, Europe and Central Asia are by far the oldest. Moreover, population aging is set to accelerate further over the coming decades as large segments turn old. Additionally, some countries such as Russia and certain Eastern European countries are facing a shrinkage of their population. Against this backdrop, this report investigates what stands in the way of societies reaping the full benefits of increased longevity—that is, longer lives and potentially prolonged payoffs from human capital—and what can help to mitigate the possible negative impacts of a smaller and older workforce. Beginning with a focus on demographic trends, the report puts the rapid decline in fertility and contrasting migration trends in the region in a historical perspective and looks forward to the varying paths that population change may follow in the region. Next, it examines the evidence on the likely impact of demographic change on growth and savings, the labor force, firm and economy-wide innovation, poverty and inequality, and intergenerational solidarity. Finally, the report goes beyond diagnostics and puts an emphasis on what we know regarding successful policy interventions, presenting evidence on what has and has not worked in the past. -
Publication
Portability of Pension, Health, and Other Social Benefits: Facts, Concepts, Issues
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-05)Portability of social benefits across professions and countries is an increasing concern for individuals and policy makers. Lacking or incomplete transfers of acquired social rights are feared to negatively impact individual labor market decisions as well as capacity to address social risks with consequences for economic and social outcomes. The paper gives a fresh and provocative look on the international perspective of the topic that has so far been dominated by social policy lawyers working within the framework of bilateral agreements; the input by economists has been very limited. It offers an analytical framework for portability analysis that suggests separating the risk pooling, (implicit or actual) pre-funding and redistributive elements in the benefit design and explores the proposed alternative approach for pensions and health care benefits. This promising approach may serve both as a substitute and complement to bi- and multilateral agreements. -
Publication
Towards a National Jobs Strategy in Kuwait
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022)This report is one of the main deliverables outlined in the legal arrangement of September 10, 2019, between the General Secretariat of the Supreme Council for Planning and Development (GS-SCPD) in Kuwait and the World Bank. A separate overview report is also available. The social contract in Kuwait is at risk. Kuwaiti citizens are used to the state providing public sector jobs, free education, free healthcare, and subsidized fuel to all citizens. These benefits have been bought and paid for using Kuwait’s oil revenues, however, the sustainability of the social contract has been questioned by three mutually reinforcing challenges. First, oil demand is projected to steadily decline the next few decades. This decline is partly the result of changing consumer preferences away from carbon-based fuel sources, and partly the result of increasingly cost-effective alternative energy sources becoming available. Second, with mounting fiscal deficits, the size of the wage bill for the government is a growing concern. Third, the needs in the labor market will continue to grow as Kuwait’s population is young and growing. Central to these structural challenges are challenges to Kuwait’s labor market. A growing number of young Kuwaitis are entering the labor market with high expectations of well-paid, secure, public sector jobs. In the private sector, employers are dependent on low-cost and largely unskilled foreign workers. The 2019 COVID-19 global pandemic, which has led to an oil price crisis and a global economic slowdown, has intensified the debate surrounding jobs challenges in Kuwait. These jobs challenges need to be addressed to ensure the sustainability of the economic growth model and avoid major social disruption. The government has asked The World Bank for assistance to formulate a National Jobs Strategy to help confront these challenges, based on evidence and best practices. Reforms are recommended in four areas, or pillars: (i) make the public sector more sustainable, (ii) improve human capital, (iii) support private sector growth, and (iv) build a social protection system. In addition, the jobs strategy covers two cross-cutting themes: behavioral economics, and monitoring and evaluation, also embedded in the four pillars. This introduction briefly explains the critical challenges facing Kuwait that require substantial changes in policy. The subsequent sections analyze the major issues of these four topics, with recommendations for policy change to improve sustainability and enhance incomes. -
Publication
Shaping the Future: A Long-Term Perspective of People and Job Mobility for the Middle East and North Africa, Vol. 3. Background Papers
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-01)The objective of this study is to provide a long-term perspective for the ongoing policy dialogue on the management of labor migration in Europe and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It is organized as follows. Chapter one puts the report and migration in the context of the economic and social development in MENA countries. Chapter two provides the historical context of MENA migration patterns and an overview of the presence and skill characteristics of migrants in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries today. This chapter also discusses the potential for insourcing, that is, migration of jobs into the region as an alternative or complement to labor migration. Chapter three analyzes the demand and supply framework for migration, the determinants of migration patterns, and the potential demand for labor in the European Union (EU), and the characteristics and trends of MENA labor supply. Chapter four looks to the worldwide impact of demographic and labor force developments in the decades ahead and their implications on labor and job mobility. The chapter analyzes the likely population and labor force growth in Europe and MENA, the challenges this growth poses, and the scope for demographic arbitrage between the two regions. This chapter provides the basis for the fifth and concluding chapter. Chapter five covers the institutional setup and the various economic and social protection policies and practices worldwide that have a strong and positive bearing on migration flows and presents a conceptual framework on both the labor and job sending and receiving sides that can be used by policy makers to articulate, defend, and implement a collaborative approach to the challenges ahead.