Person:
Baffes, John

Development Prospects Group, Development Economic Research Department, The World Bank

Fields of Specialization

Commodity markets; trade policies; agricultural economics

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Development Prospects Group, Development Economic Research Department, The World Bank

Last updated January 31, 2023

Biography

John Baffes is a Senior Economist with the Development Prospects Group of the World Bank. Currently, he manages the World Bank’s the Commodity Quarterly report, including the commodity price forecasting and market monitoring process. Other responsibilities include analysis and research on market structure, policy reforms, policy advice to various country departments and senior management, and maintaining the World Bank’s commodity-related data systems. Since joining the World Bank in 1993, he has worked in several operational departments, including Latin America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 38

Commodity Market Reforms : Lessons of Two Decades

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2001-03) Akiyama, Takamasa ; Baffes, John ; Larson, Donald ; Varangis, Panos

Structural reform of the economies of developing countries has been in the forefront of development interest since the early 1980s. This interest stems from a recognition that the structures and institutions of these countries are critical to any enhancement of economic and social development. One of the key reforms has been that of primary commodity markets, especially agricultural commodity markets, because many developing countries, including the poorest, depend heavily on these for foreign exchange earnings and employment, and hence for poverty reduction. This report focuses on the political economy and institutional aspects of agricultural commodity market reform. In order to explore in detail factors that are critical to the processes, consequences, and substance of reform, the authors have focused the analysis and evaluation on five commodities important in many developing countries, specifically cocoa, coffee, sugar, cotton, and cereal. In doing so, they highlight important lessons on how agricultural sector reform can be launched and implemented. Some of the factors identified in the report as being key to successful reform include the recognition that commodity markets often affect communities and even politics, that the initial conditions of markets are critical, and that government intervention can crowd out private sector initiatives, especially when it comes to building the institutions needed to develop a healthy agricultural sector.
Cotton : Market Setting, Trade Policies, and Issues

(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-02) Baffes, John

The value of world cotton production in 2000-01 has been estimated at about $20 billion, down from $35 billion in 1996-97 when cotton prices were 50 percent higher. Although cotton's share in world merchandise trade is insignificant (about 0.12 percent), it is very important to a number of developing countries. Cotton accounts for approximately 40 percent of total merchandise export earnings in Benin and Burkina Faso, and 30 percent in Chad, Mali, and Uzbekistan. Its contribution to GDP in these and other developing countries is substantial, ranging between 5 and 10 percent. Cotton supports the livelihoods of millions in developing countries (at least 10 million in West and Central Africa) where it is a typical, and often dominant, smallholder cash crop. The cotton market also has been subject to considerable market intervention-subsidization in the European Union and the United States, and taxation in Africa and Central Asia. During the past three seasons, annual direct support averaged $4.5 billion. The author reviews the market setting and policy issues and gives recommendations on how industrial and developing cotton-producing countries can improve the policy environment.
The "Cotton Problem"

(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2005-03-01) Baffes, John

Cotton is an important cash crop in many developing economies, supporting the livelihoods of millions of poor households. In some countries it contributes as much as 40 percent of merchandise exports and more than 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The global cotton market, however, has been subject to numerous policy interventions, to the detriment of nonsubsidized producers. This examination of the global cotton market and trade policies reaches four main conclusions. First, rich cotton-producing countries should stop supporting their cotton sectors; as an interim step, transfers to the cotton sector should be fully decoupled from current production decisions. Second, many cotton-producing (and often cotton-dependent) developing economies need to complete their unfinished reform agenda. Third, new technologies, especially genetically modified seed varieties, should be embraced by developing economies; this will entail extensive research to identify varieties appropriate to local growing conditions and the establishment of the proper legislative and regulatory framework. Finally, cotton promotion is needed to reverse or at least arrest cotton s decline as a share of total fiber consumption.
Tanzania’s Tea Sector : Constraints and Challenges’

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2004-12) Baffes, John

In 1968, the government initiated a smallholder tea development program in which all aspects of smallholder tea marketing and trade were turned over to the Tanzania Tea Authority which assumed a wide array of responsibilities. The Authority promoted smallholder tea production. Most of the smallholder tea leaf went to the eight Tea Authority-owned factories for processing, and the rest to factories owned by the estates. Despite its apparent success, there were numerous signs of distress in the smallholder sector. This note describes the constraints and challenges faced by the production of tea in Tanzania.
Monetary Conditions and Metal Prices

(Taylor & Francis, 2014-01-27) Baffes, John ; Savescu, Cristina

The monetary easing of the past few years by the world’s major central banks through conventional and unconventional policies coincided with the longest and broadest commodity price boom since the Second World War. And not surprisingly, the impending normalization of monetary conditions has created expectations of a likely reversal in commodity price trends. Based on a reduced form, price-determination model which accounts for all quantifiable sectoral and macroeconomic fundamentals, this note finds that the effect of short-term interest rates on metal prices is mixed and modest. But, changes in longer term rates have a positive and highly significant impact. The note also concludes that metal prices respond (in that order) to industrial production, input prices, US dollar movements and physical stocks of metals.
Commodity Market Reform in Africa : Some Recent Experience

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-03) Akiyama, Takamasa ; Baffes, John ; Larson, Donald F. ; Varangis, Panos

Since the early 1980s, dramatic changes in export commodity markets, shocks associated with resulting price declines, and changing views on the role of the state have ushered in widespread reforms to agricultural commodity markets in Africa. The reforms significantly reduced government participation in the marketing and pricing of commodities. Akiyama, Baffes, Larson, and Varangis examine the background, causes, process, and consequences of these reforms and derive lessons for successful reforms from experiences in markets for four commodities important to Africa-cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar. The authors' commodity focus highlights the special features associated with these markets that affect the reform process. They complement the current literature on market reforms in Africa, where grain-market studies are more common. The authors suggest that the types of market interventions prior to reform are more easily classified by crop than by country. Consequently, there are significant commodity-specific differences in the initial conditions and in the outcomes of reforms related to these markets. But there are general lessons as well. The authors find that the key consequences of reform have been significant changes in or emergence of marketing institutions and a significant shift of political and economic power from the public to the private sector. In cases where interventions were greatest and reforms most complete, producers have benefited from receiving a larger share of export prices. Additionally, the authors conclude that the adjustment costs of reform can be reduced in most cases by better understanding the detailed and idiosyncratic relationships between the commodity subsector, private markets, and public services. Finally, while there are significant costs to market-dependent reforms, experiences suggest that they are a necessary step toward a dynamic commodity sector based on private initiative. This is particularly true in countries and sectors where interventions were greatest and market-supporting institutions the weakest.
Oil Spills on Other Commodities

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-08) Baffes, John

This paper examines the effect of crude oil prices on the prices of 35 internationally traded primary commodities for the 1960-2005 period. It finds that the pass-through of crude oil price changes to the overall non-energy commodity index is 0.16. At a more disaggregated level, the fertilizer index had the highest pass-through (0.33), followed by agriculture (0.17), and metals (0.11). The prices of precious metals also exhibited a strong response to the crude oil price. In terms of individual commodities, the estimates of the food group exhibited remarkable similarity while those of raw materials and metals gave a mixed picture. The implication is that if crude oil prices remain high for some time, as most analysts expect, then the recent commodity price boom is likely to last much longer than earlier booms, at least for food commodities. The other commodities, however, are likely to follow diverging paths. On the methodological side, the results show that price indices, while providing useful summary statistics, need to be supplemented by individual commodity analysis.
Disciplining Agricultural Support through Decoupling

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-03) Baffes, John ; De Gorter, Harry

Agricultural protection, particularly in high income countries, have induced overproduction, thereby depressing world commodity prices and reducing export shares of countries which do not support agriculture. One-and perhaps the only-effective way to bring a socially acceptable and politically feasible reform is to replace payments linked to current production levels, input use, and prices by payments which are decoupled from these measures. Overall, the experience with decoupling agricultural support has been mixed while the switch to less distortive support has been uneven across commodities and countries. Rules have changed with new decoupling programs added so expectations about future policies affect current production decisions. Time limits were not implemented and if so, were overruled. Ideally, compensation programs would be universal (open to all sectors in the economy, not just agriculture) or at least non-sector-specific within agriculture. A simple and minimally distorting scheme would be a one-time unconditional payment to everyone engaged in farming or deemed in need of compensation that is nontransferable, along the lines of one-time buyouts without remaining subsidies. To maintain government credibility and reduce uncertainty, eligibility rules need to be clearly defined and not allowed to change. The time period on which payments are based, the level of payments, and the sectors covered should all remain fixed. Support to specific sectors within agriculture should be in the form of taxpayer-funded payments. There should be no requirement of production. Land, labor, and any other input should not have to be in "agricultural use."
The Co-Movement Between Cotton and Polyester Prices

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-03) Baffes, John ; Gohou, Gaston

The authors examine the price linkages among polyester (the dominant chemical fiber), cotton (the dominant natural fiber), and crude oil (the dominant energy commodity), based on monthly data between 1980 and 2002. The modeling framework incorporates several aspects of the unit root econometrics literature. They find that: a) There is strong co-movement between cotton and polyester prices, well above the co-movement observed between these two prices and prices of other primary commodities. b) Crude oil prices have a stronger effect on polyester prices compared with cotton prices. c) Price shocks originating in the polyester market are transmitted at much higher speed to the cotton market than vice-versa.
Restructuring Uganda’s Coffee Industry: Why Going Back to the Basics Matters

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-10) Baffes, John

After experiencing a boom during the mid-1990s, the performance of Uganda's coffee industry has been disappointing. Most existing analyses see the sector's problems as quality deterioration, poor marketing position in the global market, weak regulatory framework, and poor infrastructure. Recommendations range from setting up a coffee auction to increasing the share of specialty coffees. This paper concludes that such advice has been largely inconsistent with the stylized facts of the Ugandan coffee industry. It argues that the coffee wilt disease and the effectiveness of the coffee replanting program are the two key issues on which policymakers and the donor community should focus their activities and allocate their resources.