Yemtsov, Ruslan

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Yemtsov, Ruslan

Global Practice on Social Protection and Labor, The World Bank

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Yemtsov, Ruslan

Fields of Specialization

Social protection

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Global Practice on Social Protection and Labor, The World Bank

Last updated:January 31, 2023

Biography

Ruslan Yemtsov is a Lead Economist and Team Leader for social safety nets in the World Bank Social Protection and Labor Global practice. Prior to his current position, he worked as a poverty economist in the Middle East and North Africa region, and in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region. His experience includes: preparing poverty assessments (Egypt, Georgia, Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia and more than a dozen others), working on targeting and social assistance projects (Morocco, Russia, Croatia), fuel subsidy reform dialogue (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco) and leading regional flagship reports on poverty, subsidy reforms and statistical capacity. He has also worked on operations focused on food crisis response (Djibouti), structural adjustment credits (Georgia), energy sector reform, social funds, and social welfare development projects. He is the author and co-author of over 20 research papers, articles and book chapters.

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Now showing1 - 10 of 22

Exploring Universal Basic Income: A Guide to Navigating Concepts, Evidence, and Practices
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020) Gentilini, Ugo; Grosh, Margaret; Rigolini, Jamele; Yemtsov, Ruslan; Gentilini, Ugo; Grosh, Margaret; Rigolini, Jamele; Yemtsov, Ruslan; Bastagli, Francesca; Lustig, Nora; Monsalve Montiel, Emma; Quan, Siyu; Ter-Minassian, Teresa; De Wispelaere, Jurgen; Lowe, Christina; George, Tina
Universal basic income (UBI) is emerging as one of the most hotly debated issues in development and social protection policy. But what are the features of UBI? What is it meant to achieve? How do we know, and what don’t we know, about its performance? What does it take to implement it in practice? Drawing from global evidence, literature, and survey data, this volume provides a framework to elucidate issues and trade-offs in UBI with a view to help inform choices around its appropriateness and feasibility in different contexts. Specifically, the book examines how UBI differs from or complements other social assistance programs in terms of objectives, coverage, incidence, adequacy, incentives, effects on poverty and inequality, financing, political economy, and implementation. It also reviews past and current country experiences, surveys the full range of existing policy proposals, provides original results from micro–tax benefit simulations, and sets out a range of considerations around the analytics and practice of UBI.
Rural Poverty Reduction and Economic Transformation in China: A Decomposition Approach
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11) Niu, Chiyu; Lugo, Maria Ana; Yemtsov, Ruslan
Rural poverty in China fell from 96 percent in 1980 to less than 1 percent of the population in 2019. Using PovcalNet data for China and a set of comparable countries, this paper estimates growth-poverty elasticities. It finds that China stands out for its record of sustained, fast growth, rather than because of an unusually high growth-poverty elasticity. In addition, changes in mean consumption, rather than changes in the distribution, drive poverty reduction. Furthermore, until 2010, changes in inequality attenuated the impact of growth on poverty. The paper also studies which channels mattered the most for rural poverty reduction by applying a decomposition framework to multiple rounds of Chinese Household Income Project surveys conducted in 1988, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2013, and 2018. The findings show that broad-based, labor-intensive growth in agriculture was initially the main driving force for rural poverty reduction, followed by the expansion of non-agriculture sectors. As the country’s poverty rate approached 10 percent by 2007, transfers from migrant workers and, later, public transfers became the major drivers of further rural poverty reduction. Throughout the period, the fall in the demographic dependency rate also played a significant role. As China’s living standards continue to rise, the official definition of poverty will have to adjust to the higher minimum. Continued structural transformation and the inclusive growth agenda retain crucial importance for sustained poverty reduction.
The 1.5 Billion People Question: Food, Vouchers, or Cash Transfers?
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018) Alderman, Harold; Gentilini, Ugo; Yemtsov, Ruslan; Alderman, Harold; Gentilini, Ugo; Yemtsov, Ruslan; Abdalla, Moustafa; Al-Shawarby, Sherine; Bhattacharya, Shrayana; Falcao, Vanita Leah; Hastuti; Hernández, Citlalli; Oliveira, Victor; Prell, Mark; Puri, Raghav; Scott, John; Smallwood, David; Sooriyamudali, Chinthani; Sumarto, Sudarno; Tiehen, Laura; Tilakaratna, Ganga; Timmer, Peter
Most of the people in low and middle-income countries covered by social protection receive assistance in the form of in-kind food. The origin of such support is rooted in countries’ historical pursuit of three interconnected objectives, namely attaining self-sufficiency in food, managing domestic food prices, and providing income support to the poor. This volume sheds light on the complex, bumpy and non-linear process of how some flagship food-based social protection programs have evolved over time, and how they currently work. In particular, it lays out the broad trends in reforms, including a growing move from in-kind modalities to cash transfers, from universality to targeting, and from agriculture to social protection. Case studies from Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Sri Lanka, and United States document the specific experiences of managing the process of reform and implementation, including enhancing our understanding of the opportunities and challenges with different social protection transfer modalities.
Towards More Effective Social Assistance in Russia: An Update of the System Performance Considering New National Target of Halving Poverty by 2024
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-24) Posarac, Aleksandra; Yemtsov, Ruslan; Nagernyak, Maria; Albegova, Irina
This report updates the assessment of the performance of the social protection (SP) system in Russia, using the 2014-2017 rounds of the Survey on Incomes and the Participation in Social Programs (VNDN in Russian) by the State Statistic Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat), the largest household annual monitoring survey in Russia, and the main source of official data on poverty. The 2017 VNDN Survey round has a sample (about 150,000 households) that is 3 times larger than its standard sample size and it allows for a comprehensive assessment of the SP system performance both at the national and the regional levels. The context for the update is the 2018 May Decree by the President of Russia5, which defined the new strategic goals for socio-economic development and poverty alleviation in Russia. The Decree put human development and poverty reduction at the center of the Russia’s development strategy over the medium term. To achieve the May decree goals by 2024, the Government developed 12 National Projects, particularly in health, support to families and education, and allocated significant resources for their implementation. The national goals include halving poverty, increasing the quality of education and improving health status to extend longevity and economically active life. For social protection, the objectives pertain to higher efficiency and effectiveness, greater share of resources directed to families in need of assistance, better performance results and stronger alignment with human development goals. More recently, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection launched a series of regional pilots to inform decisionmakers on good practice examples in implementing the reform in the regions. This update is intended to feed into this on-going process, enabling the World Bank team to continue to support the Government of the Russian Federation in its efforts to improve efficacy of its social assistance system. Through the RAS project, the social assistance team of the World Bank has established itself as credible source of robust analysis and solid technical advice.
Measuring the Effectiveness of Social Protection: Concepts and Applications
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-06-18) Evans, Brooks; Yemtsov, Ruslan; Sajaia, Zurab; Honorati, Maddalena; Lokshin, Michael
'Measuring the Effectiveness of Social Protection: Concepts and Applications' provides the conceptual and analytical framework for assessing social protection (SP) programs, as well as provides a practical guide for users seeking to conduct analysis, particularly using the World Bank's Software Platform for Automated Economic Analysis (ADePT). The book provides a comprehensive unique resource to tie together social policy theory, concepts and practical analytical techniques. The book content is targeted at policymakers and practitioners worldwide seeking to improve the outcomes of their social protection policies. It suggests advanced methods and a new rapid analysis instrumental for technical experts working on quantitative SP analysis for their ministry, national statistics offices, think tanks, universities, or development organizations. The book aims to equip users with different statistical background and SP knowledge to independently conduct SP analysis and prepare a standardized set of tables and graphs to conduct different types of SP performance analysis, ranging from benchmarking SP performance within and across countries, simulating the performance of alternative reform options, and assessing the viability of proposed programs.
Energy Subsidy Reform Assessment Framework: Assessing the Readiness of Social Safety Nets to Mitigate the Impact of Reform
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-30) Moubarak, Amr; Yemtsov, Ruslan
This note provides guidance to policy makers who are looking to utilize Social Safety Nets (SSNs) to mitigate the welfare impacts of energy subsidy reforms (ESRs) on the poor. The good practice note explains (a) why SSNs are an effective tool in the context of ESR, and (b) different options for rapid scale-up or implementation of SSNs. It introduces a three-stage analytical approach that includes (a) assessing the welfare losses caused by ESR; (b) taking stock of existing SSN and near-SSNs, and modeling expansion options; and (c) assessing the readiness of the existing or planned SSNs for providing protection against the negative consequences of the price shock. The scope of this good practice note is confined to cases where ESRs lead to higher prices paid by energy consumers. As good practice note one outlines, ESRs do not necessarily lead to higher prices, and could even decrease prices paid, such as when producer subsidies in the form of price support paid for by consumers are eliminated, or when consumer price subsidies lead to illegal diversion and out-smuggling, acute fuel shortages, and prices that are even higher than official prices on the black markets. The latter is particularly important: consumers may be paying much higher prices before the reform, having to develop coping mechanisms to deal with energy shortages. ESRs may improve the quality of energy delivery service, reducing energy shortages and thereby improving the welfare of energy consumers. In this context, the note has been prepared for social protection specialists and government officials responsible for social sectors portfolio. It provides an overview and guidance on the use of tools, principles, methods, and practices, in the analysis of social protection issues relevant to ESR. The note has a narrow focus, specifically looking at SSNs as measures that can support the poor during times of ESR.
Income Support for the Poorest : A Review of Experience in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-06-26) Tesliuc, Emil; Pop, Lucian; Grosh, Margaret; Yemtsov, Ruslan
Most countries in the world aspire to protect poorest and most vulnerable families from destitution and thus provide some type of income support to those who are very poor. These programs are often layered into social policy along with other transfers, subsidies, or services. The way to best provide such last-resort income support (LRIS) and its role in wider social policy is a matter of some complexity, much experimentation, and much study. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 28 of 30 countries operate LRIS programs. This study examines the experience of LRIS programs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It documents the outcomes of such programs throughout the region in terms of expenditure, coverage, targeting, and simulated effects on poverty and inequality. For a subset of countries, the study documents and draws lessons from the design and implementation arrangements - institutional frameworks and administrative structures, eligibility determination, benefits and conditions, governance mechanisms, and administrative costs on the basis of information gleaned during in-depth country engagements that have extended a decade or more (Albania, Armenia, Bulgaria, the Kyrgyz Republic, Lithuania, and Romania) and other detailed work available from newer or more specific engagements (Croatia, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan). The report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides an overview of the role of LRIS in the wider social assistance policies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Chapter three looks into the institutional and financing arrangements of the LRIS programs in the case study countries. Chapter four covers one of the two most charged issues in narrowly targeted LRIS programs - how eligibility is determined. Chapter five takes up the other charged issue in these programs - the benefit formula and how labor disincentives can be held in check with the guaranteed minimum income design. Chapter six focuses on two key elements of control and accountability systems in LRIS programs - modern management information systems and strategies to reduce error, fraud, and corruption. Chapter seven examines the administrative costs of the LRIS programs in the case study countries. Chapter eight highlights and summarizes the lessons.
Social Protection, Poverty and the Post-2015 Agenda
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Kanbur, Ravi; Fiszbein, Ariel; Yemtsov, Ruslan
Social protection is absent from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and only recently has gained some prominence in the post-2015 discourse. In the past quarter century, however, rising inequality has often accompanied economic growth. At the same time, the growing importance of risk and vulnerability on the wellbeing of the poor has been recognized. Further, there is now a consensus on adopting more ambitious goals on poverty reduction. Defining social protection as a collection of programs that address risk, vulnerability, inequality and poverty through a system of transfers in cash or in kind, this paper argues that social protection needs to be on the post-2015 agenda as a key element of the discourse. It provides an empirical overview of social protection around the world based on the World Bank's Atlas of Social Protection: Indicators of Resilience and Equity (ASPIRE) data set. Focusing on the goal of ending poverty, the paper estimates that social protection programs are currently preventing 150 million people from falling into poverty. Based on the data set, the paper develops, tentatively and for discussion, a set of candidate goals, indicators and targets for the acceleration of poverty reduction through social protection. The authors ask what it would take for social protection programs to contribute to halving the poverty gap in a country. They show that if all countries could achieve the actual poverty reduction efficiency already observed in the top quartile of countries, then 70 percent of the countries in the sample could achieve this goal. However, for 30 percent of the countries, even reaching the top quartile on efficiency will not be enough -- for these countries, the issue is one of budgetary adequacy.
Productive Role of Safety Nets
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-03) Alderman, Harold; Yemtsov, Ruslan
The paper contains a framework for linking social protection with growth and productivity, an updated review of the literature, new original work filling in gaps in the available evidence, and a discussion of operational implications. The paper demonstrates that there was a shift in the economists' view on social protection, and now they are seen as a force that can make a positive contribution towards economic growth and reduce poverty. The paper looks at pathways in which social protection programs (social insurance and social assistance programs, as well as labor programs) can support better growth outcomes: (i) individual level (building and protecting human capital, and other productive assets, empowering poor individuals to invest or to adopt higher return strategies), (ii) local economy effects (enhancing community assets and infrastructure, positive spillovers from beneficiaries to non-beneficiaries), (iii) overall economy level (acting as stabilizers of aggregate demand, improving social cohesion and making growth?enhancing reforms more politically feasible). Most social protection programs affect growth through all of these pathways. But the evidence is very uneven; and there are knowledge gaps. The paper discusses operational implications for the design and implementation of Social Protection (SP) programs and proposes a work program for addressing knowledge gaps.
How Can Safety Nets Contribute to Economic Growth?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Alderman, Harold; Yemtsov, Ruslan
The paper provides an up-to date and selective review of the literature on how social safety nets contribute to growth. The evidence is carefully chosen to show how safety nets have the potential to overcome constraints on growth linked to market failures, and is organized into 4 distinct pathways: i) encouraging asset accumulation by changing incentives and by addressing imperfections in financial markets caused by constraints in obtaining credit, and from information asymmetries; overcoming such failures helps households to invest into their human capital or productive assets; ii) failures in insurance markets especially in low income setting; safety nets are assisting in managing risk both ex post and ex ante; iii) safety nets are overcoming failure to create assets and other local economy complementary factors to household-level investments; iv) safety nets are shown to relax political constraints on policy. Safety nets have a dual objective of directly alleviating poverty through transfers to the poor and of triggering higher growth for the poor. However, the trade-off between the dual objectives of equity and growth is not eliminated by the potential for productive safety nets; this remains critical for designing social policies.