Person:
Yemtsov, Ruslan

Global Practice on Social Protection and Labor, The World Bank

Fields of Specialization

Social protection

Departments

Global Practice on Social Protection and Labor, The World Bank

Last updated January 31, 2023

Biography

Ruslan Yemtsov is a Lead Economist and Team Leader for social safety nets in the World Bank Social Protection and Labor Global practice. Prior to his current position, he worked as a poverty economist in the Middle East and North Africa region, and in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region. His experience includes: preparing poverty assessments (Egypt, Georgia, Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia and more than a dozen others), working on targeting and social assistance projects (Morocco, Russia, Croatia), fuel subsidy reform dialogue (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco) and leading regional flagship reports on poverty, subsidy reforms and statistical capacity. He has also worked on operations focused on food crisis response (Djibouti), structural adjustment credits (Georgia), energy sector reform, social funds, and social welfare development projects. He is the author and co-author of over 20 research papers, articles and book chapters.

Full item page

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 22

Productive Role of Safety Nets

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-03) Alderman, Harold ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

The paper contains a framework for linking social protection with growth and productivity, an updated review of the literature, new original work filling in gaps in the available evidence, and a discussion of operational implications. The paper demonstrates that there was a shift in the economists' view on social protection, and now they are seen as a force that can make a positive contribution towards economic growth and reduce poverty. The paper looks at pathways in which social protection programs (social insurance and social assistance programs, as well as labor programs) can support better growth outcomes: (i) individual level (building and protecting human capital, and other productive assets, empowering poor individuals to invest or to adopt higher return strategies), (ii) local economy effects (enhancing community assets and infrastructure, positive spillovers from beneficiaries to non-beneficiaries), (iii) overall economy level (acting as stabilizers of aggregate demand, improving social cohesion and making growth?enhancing reforms more politically feasible). Most social protection programs affect growth through all of these pathways. But the evidence is very uneven; and there are knowledge gaps. The paper discusses operational implications for the design and implementation of Social Protection (SP) programs and proposes a work program for addressing knowledge gaps.
Armenia : Restructuring to Sustain Universal General Education

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2001-03) Perkins, Gillian ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

Before the breakup of the Soviet Union, Armenia had a highly developed and expensive education system, matching the needs of the command economy. The country is now facing a challenge to sustain universal coverage and performance standards in primary-secondary education with a small fraction of the former budget, while reorienting the system to the needs of a democratic society and market economy. The purposes of this paper are to clarify the case for rationalization by quantifying the future cost implications and affordability of various educational policy options, and to identify further measures needed in Armenia to promote restructuring and to secure adequate financing of the education system over the medium term. The paper examines recent evolution of the structure of inputs and expenditure to general education in Armenia in comparison with international norms and practice, and outlines various approaches that have been proposed for restructuring the system in the context of the government's sectoral reform strategy. Conclusions are drawn concerning the depth of rationalization and the financing strategy that would be needed to sustain universal access and quality of the system over the medium term. Finally, some of the practical and institutional obstacles to actually implementing rationalization are identified, and measures are proposed to help overcome these constraints.
Has Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation in Georgia Helped the Poor?

(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2005-08-31) Lokshin, Michael ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

This article proposes a research strategy to deal with the scarcity of data on beneficiaries for conducting impact assessments of community-level projects. Community-level panel data from a regular household survey augmented with a special community module are used to measure the impact of projects. Propensity score-matched difference in-difference comparisons are used to control for time-invariant unobservable factors. This methodology takes into consideration the purposeful placement of projects and their interactions at the community level. This empirical approach is applied to infrastructure rehabilitation projects, for schools, roads, and water supply systems, in rural Georgia between 1998 and 2001. The analysis produces plausible results regarding the size of welfare gains from a particular project at the village level and allows for differentiation of benefits between the poor and the non-poor. The findings of this study can contribute to evaluations of the impact of infrastructure interventions on poverty by bringing new empirical evidence to bear on the welfare and equity implications.
Household Strategies for Coping with Poverty and Social Exclusion in Post-Crisis Russia

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-02) Lokshin, Michael M. ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

What strategies have Russian households used, to cope with economic hardship in the wake of recent financial crisis? Which coping strategies have been most effective in reducing poverty for different groups of households? And how have people been able to adapt to the dramatic drop in formal cash incomes? The authors look at these questions using subjective evaluations of coping strategies used by household survey respondents to mitigate the effects of the Russian financial crisis on their welfare. The data come from two rounds (1996 and 1998) of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. The results of their analysis show that a household's choice of survival strategy, strongly depends on its human capital: the higher its level of human capital, the more likely it is to choose an active strategy (such as finding a supplementary job, or increasing home production). Households with low levels of human capital, those headed by pensioners, and those whose members have low levels of education, are more likely to suffer social exclusion. To prevent poverty from becoming entrenched, the trend toward marginalization, and impoverishment of these groups of households, needs to be monitored, and targeted policy interventions need to be undertaken to reverse the trend.
Evaluating the Impact of Infrastructure Rehabilitation Projects on Household Welfare in Rural Georgia

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-10) Lokshin, Michael ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

The authors evaluate the effect of various community level infrastructure rehabilitation projects undertaken in rural Georgia on household well-being. Their analysis is based on combining household and community level survey data. The authors' empirical approach uses the panel structure of the data to control for time-invariant un-observables at the community level by applying propensity-score-matched double difference comparison. The results indicate that improvements in school and road infrastructure produce nontrivial welfare gains for the poor at the village and country levels. The impact of water rehabilitation projects is ambiguous. School rehabilitation projects produce the largest gains for the poor. The methodological lesson from this analysis is that ad hoc community surveys matched with ongoing nationally representative surveys can provide a feasible and low cost impact evaluation tool.
Who Bears the Cost of Russia’s Military Draft?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-03) Lokshin, Michael ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

The authors use data from a large nationally representative survey in Russia to analyze the distributional and welfare implications of draft avoidance as a common response to Russia's highly unpopular conscription system. They develop a simple theoretical model that describes household compliance decisions with respect to enlistment. The authors use several econometric techniques to estimate the effect of various household characteristics on the probability of serving in the army and the implications for household income. Their results indicate that the burden of conscription falls disproportionately on the poor. Poor, rural households, with a low level of education, are more likely to have sons who are enlisted than urban, wealthy, and better-educated families. The losses incurred by the poor are disproportionately large and exceed the statutory rates of personal income taxes.
Increasing Inequality in Transition Economies : Is There More to Come?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-09) Mitra, Pradeep ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

This paper decomposes changes in inequality, which has in general been increasing in the transition economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, both by income source and socio-economic group, with a view to understanding the determinants of inequality and assessing how it might evolve in the future. The empirical analysis relies on a set of inequality statistics that, unlike "official data", are consistent and comparable across countries and are based on primary records from household surveys recently put together for the World Bank study "Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union: 1998-2003" [World Bank (2005b)]. The increase in inequality in transition, as predicted by a number of theoretical models, in practice differed substantially across countries, with the size and speed of its evolution depending on the relative importance of its key determinants, viz., changes in the wage distribution, employment, entrepreneurial incomes and social safety nets. Its evolution was also influenced by policy. This diversity of outcomes is exemplified on the one hand for Central Europe by Poland, where the increase in inequality has been steady but gradual and reflects, inter alia, larger changes in employment and compensating adjustments in social safety nets and, on the other for the Commonwealth of Independent States by Russia, where an explosive overshooting of inequality peaked in the mid-1990s before being moderated through the extinguishing of wage arrears during its post-1998 recovery. The paper argues that the process of transition to a market economy is not complete and that further evolution of inequality will depend both on (i) transition-related factors, such as the evolution of the education premium, a bias in the investment climate against new private sector firms which are important vehicles of job creation and regional impediments to mobility of goods and labor, as well as increasingly (ii) other factors, such as technological change and globalization. The paper also contrasts key features of inequality in Russia in the context of other transition economies with trends in inequality observed in China where rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a steep increase in inequality. It argues that the latter's experience is, to a large extent, a developmental, rather than a transition-related phenomenon deriving from the rural-urban divide and is, therefore, of limited relevance for predicting changes in inequality in Russia.
Income Support for the Poorest : A Review of Experience in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-06-26) Tesliuc, Emil ; Pop, Lucian ; Grosh, Margaret ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

Most countries in the world aspire to protect poorest and most vulnerable families from destitution and thus provide some type of income support to those who are very poor. These programs are often layered into social policy along with other transfers, subsidies, or services. The way to best provide such last-resort income support (LRIS) and its role in wider social policy is a matter of some complexity, much experimentation, and much study. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 28 of 30 countries operate LRIS programs. This study examines the experience of LRIS programs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It documents the outcomes of such programs throughout the region in terms of expenditure, coverage, targeting, and simulated effects on poverty and inequality. For a subset of countries, the study documents and draws lessons from the design and implementation arrangements - institutional frameworks and administrative structures, eligibility determination, benefits and conditions, governance mechanisms, and administrative costs on the basis of information gleaned during in-depth country engagements that have extended a decade or more (Albania, Armenia, Bulgaria, the Kyrgyz Republic, Lithuania, and Romania) and other detailed work available from newer or more specific engagements (Croatia, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan). The report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides an overview of the role of LRIS in the wider social assistance policies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Chapter three looks into the institutional and financing arrangements of the LRIS programs in the case study countries. Chapter four covers one of the two most charged issues in narrowly targeted LRIS programs - how eligibility is determined. Chapter five takes up the other charged issue in these programs - the benefit formula and how labor disincentives can be held in check with the guaranteed minimum income design. Chapter six focuses on two key elements of control and accountability systems in LRIS programs - modern management information systems and strategies to reduce error, fraud, and corruption. Chapter seven examines the administrative costs of the LRIS programs in the case study countries. Chapter eight highlights and summarizes the lessons.
How Can Safety Nets Contribute to Economic Growth?

(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2014-01-23) Alderman, Harold ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

The paper provides an up-to date and selective review of the literature on how social safety nets contribute to growth. The evidence is carefully chosen to show how safety nets have the potential to overcome constraints on growth linked to market failures, and is organized into four distinct pathways: i) encouraging asset accumulation by changing incentives and by addressing imperfections in financial markets caused by constraints in obtaining credit, and from information asymmetries; overcoming such failures helps households to invest into their human capital or productive assets; ii) failures in insurance markets especially in low income setting; safety nets are assisting in managing risk both ex post and ex ante; iii) safety nets are overcoming failure to create assets and other local economy complementary factors to household-level investments; iv) safety nets are shown to relax political constraints on policy. Safety nets have a dual objective of directly alleviating poverty through transfers to the poor and of triggering higher growth for the poor. However, the trade-off between the dual objectives of equity and growth is not eliminated by the potential for productive safety nets; this remains critical for designing social policies.
Social Protection, Poverty and the Post-2015 Agenda

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Fiszbein, Ariel ; Kanbur, Ravi ; Yemtsov, Ruslan

Social protection is absent from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and only recently has gained some prominence in the post-2015 discourse. In the past quarter century, however, rising inequality has often accompanied economic growth. At the same time, the growing importance of risk and vulnerability on the wellbeing of the poor has been recognized. Further, there is now a consensus on adopting more ambitious goals on poverty reduction. Defining social protection as a collection of programs that address risk, vulnerability, inequality and poverty through a system of transfers in cash or in kind, this paper argues that social protection needs to be on the post-2015 agenda as a key element of the discourse. It provides an empirical overview of social protection around the world based on the World Bank's Atlas of Social Protection: Indicators of Resilience and Equity (ASPIRE) data set. Focusing on the goal of ending poverty, the paper estimates that social protection programs are currently preventing 150 million people from falling into poverty. Based on the data set, the paper develops, tentatively and for discussion, a set of candidate goals, indicators and targets for the acceleration of poverty reduction through social protection. The authors ask what it would take for social protection programs to contribute to halving the poverty gap in a country. They show that if all countries could achieve the actual poverty reduction efficiency already observed in the top quartile of countries, then 70 percent of the countries in the sample could achieve this goal. However, for 30 percent of the countries, even reaching the top quartile on efficiency will not be enough -- for these countries, the issue is one of budgetary adequacy.