Journal Issue: World Bank Research Observer, Volume 34, Issue 1
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Globalization and Structural Change around the World, 1985–2015
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02) Wood, Adrian
Structural change is a vital element of successful development. Between 1985 and 2015, however, falling barriers to trade and transfer of technology shifted sectoral structures in different directions in different countries by intensifying endowment-related specialization. In skill-abundant developed countries, manufacturing became more skill-intensive and employed fewer workers. In land-scarce developing East Asia, labor-intensive manufacturing expanded, especially and hugely in China. In land-abundant Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, by contrast, manufacturing shares fell, while in land-scarce South Asia labor-intensive manufacturing was constrained by low literacy and inadequate infrastructure. This pattern of structural change contributed to higher average growth rates during this period in land-scarce than in land-abundant developing countries. Future changes in sectoral structures and growth rates will continue to be shaped by differences among countries in land abundance and skill supplies that matter for development policy choices.
Long-Term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02) Molina Millán, Teresa; Barham, Tania; Macours, Karen; Maluccio, John A.; Stampini, Marco
Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs, started in the late 1990s in Latin America, have become the antipoverty program of choice in many developing countries in the region and beyond. This paper reviews the literature on their long-term impacts on human capital and related outcomes observed after children have reached a later stage of their life cycle, focusing on two life-cycle transitions. The first includes children exposed to CCTs in utero or during early childhood who have reached school ages. The second includes children exposed to CCTs during school ages who have reached young adulthood. Most studies find positive long-term effects on schooling, but fewer find positive impacts on cognitive skills, learning, or socio-emotional skills. Impacts on employment and earnings are mixed, possibly because former beneficiaries were often still too young. A number of studies find estimates that are not statistically different from zero, but for which it is often not possible to be confident that this is due to an actual lack of impact rather than to the methodological challenges facing all long-term evaluations. Developing further opportunities for analyses with rigorous identification strategies for the measurement of long-term impacts should be high on the research agenda. As original beneficiaries age, this should also be increasingly possible, and indeed important before concluding whether or not CCTs lead to sustainable poverty reduction.
The World Bank Human Capital Index
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02) Kraay, Aart
This paper provides a guide to the new World Bank Human Capital Index (HCI), situating its methodology in the context of the development accounting literature. The HCI combines indicators of health and education into a measure of the human capital that a child born today can expect to achieve by her 18th birthday, given the risks of poor education and health that prevail in the country where she lives. The HCI is measured in units of productivity relative to a benchmark of complete education and full health, and ranges from 0 to 1. A value of x on the HCI indicates that a child born today can expect to be only x×100 percent as productive as a future worker as she would be if she enjoyed complete education and full health.
Governance and Women's Economic and Political Participation
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02) Milazzo, Annamaria; Goldstein, Markus
Have institutional reforms been successful in reducing persistent gender gaps in economic and political participation? This paper argues that, at the roots of current gender inequalities, there are traditional patriarchal social structures in which power is unequally distributed, with men traditionally holding authority over women. The power imbalance is manifested in governance arrangements, of which we consider discriminatory formal laws and informal normative systems that perpetuate gender inequality. We review the evidence on the effectiveness of reforms addressing gender inequality and applied via formal law changes. Given the possibility of endogeneity issues as reforms may have been adopted in countries where attitudes toward women had already been improving, we focus on micro-empirical studies that tackle this challenge. The evidence suggests that some reforms have been successful in reducing inequalities. Power and norms can shift and sometimes temporary interventions can deliver long-term results.
Changing Behavioral Patterns Related to Maternity and Childbirth in Rural and Poor Populations
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2019-02) Garcia-Prado, Ariadna
While life expectancy has increased worldwide in recent decades, dramatic health inequalities persist across and within countries and between different population groups. Maternal mortality in low- and middle-income countries is almost fifty times that of high-income countries, while neonatal mortality is nine times higher, and both are consistently higher in rural, poor, and indigenous populations. Despite important efforts to expand the supply of health services to disadvantaged populations, these inequalities have not fallen as expected. As a result, more emphasis is now being placed on demand strategies in an effort to change behavioral patterns related to maternity and childbirth. This review surveys the experimental and quasi-experimental literature in the area of maternal and neonatal health in rural and poor areas of developing countries to identify strategies that are capable of modifying demand behavior and thereby impacting key indicators. We analyze three kinds of strategies: those covering direct costs, promotion of social and cultural changes, and introduction of incentives. We find significant results from the combination of individual counselling and women groups in the community, as well as from the introduction of small incentives as opposed to more expensive Cash Conditional Transfers (CCTs). We conclude with lessons for impact evaluation and policy-making.