Journal Issue: World Bank Research Observer, Volume 40, Issue 1
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40
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1
Issue Date
2025-02
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Articles
Land Policies and Institutions for Equitable and Resilient Growth in Africa
(Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2025-01-24) Deininger, Klaus; Goyal, Aparajita
In coming decades, Africa's urban populations will expand, and the effects of climate change be more keenly felt. Land policies and institutions will be key for urban dwellers to be able access productive jobs, breathe clean air, and live in decent housing; for entrepreneurs, especially women, to leverage land for productive investment; and for farmers to diversify, insure against shocks, and accumulate capital. Yet, many African land registries perform poorly, command little trust, and have failed to capitalize on opportunities to improve quality, relevance, and outreach via digital interoperability, use of earth observation, and connectivity. Literature highlights scope for regulatory and institutional reforms to (a) expand property taxation and land value capture and to improve urban service delivery, planning, and land use regulations; (b) increase quality and affordability of land services and access to land price and ownership data; (c) guide issuance of rural land use rights to reduce barriers to rural factor markets, including by spatially enabling farmer registries to improve subsidy targeting and effectiveness; and (d) demarcation and transparent decentralized management of public land to attract investment, including in climate finance, without fueling corruption, and to manage disputes before they escalate into ethnic violence.
The Power and Roots of Aspirations
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2025-01-24) Fruttero, Anna; Muller, Noel; Calvo-González, Óscar
Aspirations have become a common theme in empirical economics studies but there is no unified understanding of the range of outcomes they influence, the factors that shape them, and how to measure them. We survey this growing literature. We argue that there is compelling evidence to consider aspirations as a useful lens to analyze human behavior and development outcomes, at the individual and aggregate levels, in poorer and richer countries. The empirical evidence aligns with the theory that high aspirations can lead individuals to achieve better educational, labor market, and other outcomes and can contribute to making countries more equal and prosperous. The empirical evidence also confirms that the mix of social and circumstantial factors shaping aspirations tends to hinder the aspirations of the disadvantaged—such as the poor, immigrants, and women—and can contribute to vicious circles of poverty, high inequality, low social mobility, and low growth. However, high aspirations should not be considered an end in themselves as they can backfire, with deleterious effects, if unmatched with opportunities. Further, we argue that definitional and measurement issues can affect the understanding of the topic and that studies should more explicitly describe their measures of aspirations to ensure that divergent underlying concepts are not mistaken.
The Impact of Climate Change on Work: Lessons for Developing Countries
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2025-01-24) Feriga, Moustafa; Lozano Gracia, Nancy; Serneels, Pieter
We identify five areas where climate change may impact work and draw lessons for developing countries by reviewing the evidence. Firstly, demand for labor is unevenly affected, with agriculture, heat-exposed manufacturing, and the brown energy sector experiencing downturns, while other sectors may see a rise, resulting in an uncertain overall impact. Secondly, climate change impacts labor supply through absenteeism, shirking, and altering work-time patterns, depending on the activity and sector. Thirdly, productivity may decline, especially in heat-exposed industries, primarily due to health reasons. Fourthly, heightened earnings variability likely increases vulnerability among the self-employed. Fifthly, climate change can influence labor allocation and catalyze sectoral reallocation. Higher temperatures are also linked to increased migration. But caution is needed in interpreting these findings, as studies across these topics predominantly use fixed effect estimation and concentrate on short-term impacts, neglecting adaptation. Emerging research on adaptation indicates that workplace cooling is unappealing for firms with narrow profit margins, while coping strategies of farms and households have unclear optimality due to adoption barriers. Government responses remain understudied, with six potential areas identified: green jobs, green skills, labor-oriented adaptation, flexible work regulation, labor market integration, and social protection. We conclude by outlining future research directions.
Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence
(Published by Oxford University on behalf of the World Bank, 2025-01-27) Irwin, Douglas A
Do trade reforms that significantly reduce import barriers lead to faster economic growth? In the twenty-five years since Rodríguez and Rodrik's (2000) critical survey of empirical work on this question, new research has tried to overcome the various methodological problems that have plagued previous attempts to provide a convincing answer. I examine three strands of recent work on this issue: cross-country regressions focusing on within-country growth, synthetic control methods on specific reform episodes, and empirical country studies looking at the channels through which lower trade barriers may increase productivity. A consistent finding is that trade reforms have had a positive impact on economic growth, on average, although the effect is heterogeneous across countries. Overall, these research findings should temper some of the previous agnosticism about the empirical link between trade reform and economic performance.